Hurricane Félix: RECON Discussion

[Ptarmigan]

this storm is increadibly tight and rapidly intensifying. Its pressure will be much higher for a 5 than normal.

It was a Category 2 this morning and now a Category 4. It would not surprise me if it is a 5 by the end of the day.

[WindRunner]

the latest data had an unflagged 142KT

I've never heard of surface winds being higher than flight level winds. FL winds are only 147kts and SFRM is reporting 142kts...158kts..and 163kts...so either something is wrong or this beast is on steroids.

158 and 163 were wrong . . . ignore them like they don't exist . . .

However, the 142 was not flagged . . . which means it should be accurate. And yes, it is possible to have reduction factors >1, sometimes even nearing 1.4, though it is rare . . .

[Derek Ortt]

looking at the data more closely, if the 142 is valid, I see no reason why the 163KT is also not valid... it would fit in with a similar FL to surface reduction factor and would also make since since it was to the north of the cyclone

[WindRunner]

I'm glad I wasn't the only one thinking that those readings might not be suspect . . . the exact values may be off, but there are still valid +/-5kts IMO . . .

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That means this is a very powerful cat5 hurricane.

[thunderchief]

Agree Ortt, especailly looking at the nearly perfect IR satellite presentation, with its cold tops. Even if those winds are a little high now, wait 2 hours.

[miamicanes177]

looking at the data more closely, if the 142 is valid, I see no reason why the 163KT is also not valid... it would fit in with a similar FL to surface reduction factor and would also make since since it was to the north of the cyclone

If this thing has 190mph winds at the surface then it must be Armageddon in the eyewall.

[Scorpion]

Now if only the pressure will respond.. I'd like to see this get lower than 920

[CrazyC83]

looking at the data more closely, if the 142 is valid, I see no reason why the 163KT is also not valid... it would fit in with a similar FL to surface reduction factor and would also make since since it was to the north of the cyclone

If this thing has 190mph winds at the surface then it must be Armageddon in the eyewall.

190 mph winds at the surface makes little sense with a pressure in the 930s. Maybe if the pressure was 894 and not 934...

[Beam]

Just looking at the latest sat. image alone, it's not all that hard to imagine Felix being a 155-160 KT storm, crazy as that may sound. It just keeps getting better organized. If the data is valid, Felix could very well rival or even exceed Katrina's peak windspeed. Amazing.

[Scorpion]

looking at the data more closely, if the 142 is valid, I see no reason why the 163KT is also not valid... it would fit in with a similar FL to surface reduction factor and would also make since since it was to the north of the cyclone

If this thing has 190mph winds at the surface then it must be Armageddon in the eyewall.

190 mph winds at the surface makes little sense with a pressure in the 930s. Maybe if the pressure was 894 and not 934...

With the way this storm is strengthening it could be in the high 920's now, so you never know.

[WindRunner]

Derek, conversion from MBL to surface would be about .75 typically, right? Or is that just 925mb conversion?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

HOLY CRAP this thing is at least 160 mph???!?!?!??????
CRAP that is insane!!!!

[brunota2003]

Hmmm...Is it because the winds are so strong that the dropsondes are not reporting wind at the surface? Or the waves? That is, I think the second eyewall drop that showed no surface values.

[PhillyWX]

With the way this storm is strengthening it could be in the high 920's now, so you never know.

A near 30 mb drop in 3 hours? OK!

[Derek Ortt]

an 80% conversion of the MBL is used and 75 percent from 1500 feet

not sure where the 925mb level is with this monster though... need to check the sonde again

[WindRunner]

Hmmm...Is it because the winds are so strong that the dropsondes are not reporting wind at the surface? Or the waves? That is, I think the second eyewall drop that showed no surface values.

No, it's because the mandatory 925mb level is too close . . . it doesn't have time to take two readings within a split second (i.e. much less than 50 meters).

[LAwxrgal]

Hmmm...Is it because the winds are so strong that the dropsondes are not reporting wind at the surface? Or the waves? That is, I think the second eyewall drop that showed no surface values.

Isn't that kind of like what happened with Wilma? Her eye was so small and the winds were so strong that they really couldn't get an accurate measurement of her wind speed.

[WindRunner]

an 80% conversion of the MBL is used and 75 percent from 1500 feet

not sure where the 925mb level is with this monster though... need to check the sonde again

The winds themselves are crazy regardless . . . 176kts in NE eyewall and 151kts in SW eyewall . . . that's why I am curious . . .

[brunota2003]

Mmm...pressure at 5 pm was 956...since 5 pm, if the pressure right now is 934, that would be 22 millibar drop. Coming out to, using a 3 hour (5 pm to 8 pm) division, 7.33333 millibar drop per hour!!! That is absolutely insane!