Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[Brent]

This was probably asked already, but why is there no floater? Is it too far east?

Yep. Tomorrow it should be in range.

[N2FSU]

Great shot of it here:

NRL Image

[O Town]

[CrazyC83]

Great shot of it here:

NRL Image

That has the look of a storm right there...

[Coredesat]

Not quite, but it does have a well-established outflow channel to the north.

[hurricanetrack]

Wonder why Dr. Masters does not "like the looks of this one"? Just curious....

[GeneratorPower]

Mark, where is Mike Watkins?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM JERRY...LOCATED ABOUT 1045 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD KEEP DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SLOW TO
OCCUR.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY...BUT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPRECTED TO BRING SQUALLY WEATHER TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS ON MONDAY...AND THIS WEATHER COULD SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD
INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON TUESDAY. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
LARGE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON JERRY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON JERRY ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

Being so big,it takes a while to consolidate but slowly is getting close to TD status.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This needs to do one thing, that is blow a large 120 mile wide minus 70 area of convection right in the middle of that. Once it does that this should start to develop, maybe even fast. We will see. Yes its 2007 but hey its not impossible.

[Derek Ortt]

2007 has not been a dead year at all.

10 named storms and 2 cat 5's... yet we are seeing posts about "it's 2007"

We could end up with 15-20 names storms this year, which would be above the last 12 year average

[RL3AO]

2007 has not been a dead year at all.

10 named storms and 2 cat 5's... yet we are seeing posts about "it's 2007"

We could end up with 15-20 names storms this year, which would be above the last 12 year average

20? I was thinking we could hit 16 but not 20.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

2007 has not been a dead year at all.

10 named storms and 2 cat 5's... yet we are seeing posts about "it's 2007"

We could end up with 15-20 names storms this year, which would be above the last 12 year average

Derek, I'm talking about the ACE level. Why is so many systems weak and short trackers this year?

Yes Dean and Felix where...But there seems to be many a subtropical system this year.

[rainydaze]

Wow, that storm is huge! Will it stay big if it develops or will it trim down?

['CaneFreak]

Wow, that storm is huge! Will it stay big if it develops or will it trim down?

It will trim down but this large envelope of moisture will help this system fight off any dry air that tries to impede into the system and will hopefully keep the LLC alive until this gains enough latitude which will in turn help out with low level vorticity (spin) as well. In essence, we would be killing two birds with one stone if this can keep a fairly large envelope. This reminds me of some of the storms of 2004 as they came off of Africa.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert on 96L. Here is the link!

[vegastar]

ABNT20 KNHC 240929
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2007

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS LARGE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. IT
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

FORECASTER KNABB

[Typhoon_Willie]

Visible floater is now on 96L...

Here is the link!

Pretty good rotation with this system!

[HURAKAN]

96L GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED.

[cycloneye]

If you look at the models,the BAMS takes 96L fishing,while the globals GFDL and NOGAPS takes it more westward.