INVEST 92L: Bahamas : Gone fron NRL

[BigA]

Wow, that's a wondrous increase in "bullishness" from the 5:30 TWO. Given favorable conditions, this thing could consolidate rather quickly. Should be an interesting one to track if it forms.

[fci]

Anyone has past tracks that may look similar to what the models show for 92L,especially in October?

Particularly the track across Cuba from NE to SW.
We have all seen the numerous tracks from the NW carib but I don't recall a track across Cuba in the "wrong" direction.

[chadtm80]

Is indeed a pretty big change in wording..

5:30

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A FEW
HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

11:30

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORMING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE TODAY...BUT BEGIN A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION ON
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

[Sanibel]

There's a distorted LLC at 27.8N-70.9W

[fci]

usually, storms in the BOC do NOT turn to the north this time of year

It is very common for storms in the south central GOM to dive SW into the BOC and into Mexico. remember Stan and even Lorenzo

This track is not at all inconsistent with climo or the dynamics

As long as you brought up "uncommon"; I'd say it is highly uncommon for a system to track across Cuba from NE to SW like this is being projected to possibly do.Through the Fl. Straights between Cuba and the Keys makes more sense than to go from the Atlantic across Cuba into the Carib.

[Buck]

Looks like 2007 Hurricanes really hate Central america.

You might say instead that they love Central America!

[Windsurfer_NYC]

530 TWO:

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.


1130 TWO:
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A BROAD  AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORMING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION  COULD FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE TODAY...BUT BEGIN A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

From Green to Yellow in one fell swoop!

[Stormcenter]

There's a distorted LLC at 27.8N-70.9W

So does everyone agree this is where the "center" is forming and if so how does this affect the future track? I think the further north the track the better the chances are this won't become a serious problem if everything pans out.

[boca]

Hey Dave is this thing going to ruin our gathering, I hope not but it looks like it will.

[hurricanetrack]

Notice too that Franklin said "west" and not "west or southwest". I know it is reading too much in to this but if it were to move west from where it is now, it would go right over south Florida.

Also note that he mentions a TD could form within the next day or two. Also earlier than mentioned in Dr. Masters' write up mentioning Monday. Of course, that is not his forecast, just his telling what some of the other models show.

The GFS has been most aggressive with this system developing it rather quickly. The 6Z run backed off a lot. We'll see what 12Z shows.

[Derek Ortt]

it does not

if this forms farther to the north, it only means a track more to the SW instead of WSW

[Sanibel]

Plenty of time to see what that obvious center does Stormcenter.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not everybody thinks much of JB, but back in June he thought seasonal pattern would favor an October Caribbean to Florida hurricane...



If this forms, I guess, big question, does ridge hold and into Mexico, or does trough come by and turn it North or Northeast towards Central or Eastern Gulf?

Ed, I notice a curious absence of the phrase "western Gulf" in your post!

Well, beside sthe fact is was downright chilly in Houston this morning, if the ridge holds, the steering is Westward, and if trough comes down, the steering between a trough and a ridge is Northward or Northeastward.

Climatology isn't magic, just this time of time of year the subtropical ridge just isn't far enough North to steer things West.

But on the bright side for Texas extreme weather fanatics, only 7 weeks until another potential Cowboy's Thanksgiving Day game in mixed snow, sleet and graupel.

Edit to add New York Jets will be Cowboys T-day opponent.

[hurricanetrack]

That makes sense. The high would build to its north and shove it south and southwest as the high grows and expands. It's like a large water balloon exerting force on a smaller water ballon within a large pool.

[hurricanetrack]

Ok. That's enough obsessing over this for now. Time to go get a burger at Five Guys. If you have one of those in your town, check it out. Best burger and fries ever.

92L will still be there when I get back.

[Vortex]

per 1515 utc visible it is now apparent the LLC is near 27.4N/71.1W. Some convection is beginning to fire over the LLC...

[mightyerick]

the NHC lastest surface forecast dosnt put it above a simple tropical wave while hitting Cuba in 48 hours. Floridians can be happy.

[cycloneye]

The 12z GFS run is starting to come out.Lets see what scenario it has.I will try to post the timeframes in one post to not make one post for each timeframe.

[fci]

Hey Dave is this thing going to ruin our gathering, I hope not but it looks like it will.

On the contrary.
If this goes as predicted it will be well south of here and our effects will be a little more wind and probably not even more rain.
It WILL be a fine topic of conversation.

Oh, and I also notice that Gatorcane Chris is MIA on this one.
I would have thought that we would have seen about 20 or more posts in this thread alone from him!
Hope he is OK.Maybe on vacation?
He certainly is not controversial enough to be suspended or in the penalty box.

[wxman57]

There's a distorted LLC at 27.8N-70.9W

So does everyone agree this is where the "center" is forming and if so how does this affect the future track? I think the further north the track the better the chances are this won't become a serious problem if everything pans out.

I see a small eddy near 27.7N/71.3W, but that won't be the focus for development. I put the location to watch down at 25N, near the heavy convection. That little low level swirl won't last.