Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[Extremecane]

Wow amazon storm:


----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 SEP 2007 Time : 001500 UTC
Lat : 13:49:47 N Lon : 73:02:42 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.1 / 918.0mb/143.0kt

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17.6km

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1

Eye Temp : +19.3C Cloud Region Temp : -73.7C

[Ptarmigan]

Almost every Felix going back to 1989 was a major hurricane with the exception of Felix of 1989 was a major hurricane.

[HURAKAN]

EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE.

[jhamps10]

Wow, I can not believe how this red band is expanding.

[weatherman21]

Water Vapor Satellite at 0:45Z

[GeneratorPower]

It's going annular, no doubt. Look at the outer feeder bands fading, and the bright red center ring looking like a PERFECT donut.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[GeneratorPower]

00:15Z image shows a DONUT with feeder bands going away. This is no joke. This fits the exact definition of annular as put out in the NOAA literature.

JOHN A. KNAFF AND JAMES P. KOSSIN defined annular in the following document. This fits exactly.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~kossin/articl ... arhurr.pdf

ANNULAR

[Duddy]

00:15Z image shows a DONUT with feeder bands going away. This is no joke. This fits the exact definition of annular as put out in the NOAA literature.

JOHN A. KNAFF AND JAMES P. KOSSIN defined annular in the following document. This fits exactly.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~kossin/articl ... arhurr.pdf

ANNULAR

Yep, perfect fit.

[Derek Ortt]

This is NOT annular... not even close. Rainbands are quite visible on the IR... those outer abnds are a part of the circulation as seen by microwave imagery.

In fact, I expect an EWRC to occur tomorrow

[LAwxrgal]

Almost every Felix going back to 1989 was a major hurricane with the exception of Felix of 1989 was a major hurricane.

Maybe Felix is trying to get himself retired this time.

[ConvergenceZone]

No way winds are only 165mph in my opinion. I would go with 185mph and if they can find a crew that is willing to take a risk and fly into it tonight I would bet 200mph.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves folks...I think at the MOST, this will top out at around 180, possible 185 mph, but that should be about it....This isn't "the day after tomorrow" now...We've got to tamper our amazment with a degree of realism...

[HURAKAN]

Almost every Felix going back to 1989 was a major hurricane with the exception of Felix of 1989 was a major hurricane.

Maybe Felix is trying to get himself retired this time.

Most likely. This "Félix" will become the first of its name to make landfall.

[CrazyC83]

This is NOT annular... not even close. Rainbands are quite visible on the IR... those outer abnds are a part of the circulation as seen by microwave imagery.

In fact, I expect an EWRC to occur tomorrow

I agree. It is nowhere near annular.

[fasterdisaster]

This is, IMO, the fourth best hurricane on satellite I've ever seen(behind only Katrina, Wilma, and Isabel).

[GeneratorPower]

This is NOT annular... not even close. Rainbands are quite visible on the IR... those outer abnds are a part of the circulation as seen by microwave imagery.

In fact, I expect an EWRC to occur tomorrow

I'm going on the record as officially disagreeing. The feeder bands are evaporating on the last two (2) IR frames, and the donut is there. I read that annular document completely and thoroughly. If this isn't going annular, that document needs updating.

EDIT: You're free to disagree in my book, no hard feelings here.

[Air Force Met]

00:15Z image shows a DONUT with feeder bands going away. This is no joke. This fits the exact definition of annular as put out in the NOAA literature.

JOHN A. KNAFF AND JAMES P. KOSSIN defined annular in the following document. This fits exactly.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~kossin/articl ... arhurr.pdf

ANNULAR

Not really. There is no large eye which is the number one characteristic of an annular cane...

This is not an annular hurricane. Not even close.

[theworld]

This is NOT annular... not even close. Rainbands are quite visible on the IR... those outer abnds are a part of the circulation as seen by microwave imagery.

In fact, I expect an EWRC to occur tomorrow

I'm going on the record as officially disagreeing. The feeder bands are evaporating on the last two (2) IR frames, and the donut is there. I read that annular document completely and thoroughly. If this isn't going annular, that document needs updating.

anything is possible. i've learned never to say never.

[Cryomaniac]

No way winds are only 165mph in my opinion. I would go with 185mph and if they can find a crew that is willing to take a risk and fly into it tonight I would bet 200mph.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves folks...I think at the MOST, this will top out at around 180, possible 185 mph, but that should be about it....This isn't "the day after tomorrow" now...We've got to tamper our amazment with a degree of realism...

200mph winds are by no means impossible. Not at all likely, but it's not impossible.

[fasterdisaster]

I'm sorry, but there is NO WAY this is annular, and it won't be in at least the immediate future(12 to 24 hours).

The eye is MUCH too small
Feeder bands are far too persistent
While Felix is compact, it is NOT tight enough to be annular.

Even Katrina, which I believe was barely annular, was closer to the definition than this.

[JtSmarts]

This is, IMO, the fourth best hurricane on satellite I've ever seen(behind only Katrina, Wilma, and Isabel).

I agree for the most part although I think I would possibly include Mitch and/or Rita. Rita looked similar to Felix at her peak in terms of deep convection, except she had a larger eye.