Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[Nimbus]

Derek mentioned the possibility of an ULL cutting off and rolling W or SW just ahead of Karen. You can start to see the rotation in the water vapor images. That would explain the shear easing in 24 hours. Apparantly they are expecting the weakness leftover from invest 98 to recurve Karen but that is beyond 5 the day window.

[deltadog03]

I really don't see that weakness by 98 to really effect karen. I think the when it comes down to it is that most models will have this storm to high in latittude. I still believe that the ridge should build over top and be enough to drive this wnw or west. The pattern is transient however and if it slowed down too much the next trof could pick it up and out.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This "thing" is moving north of west-northwest at this moment. The tutt is doing to it what it did to Ingrid, the only difference is that this time Karen is a stronger system. But it may still lose. We will have to see if the TUTT(ULL) back to the west.

In some good news is Karen is now a 2.0+ Ace storm.

[CrazyC83]

This "thing" is moving north of west-northwest at this moment. The tutt is doing to it what it did to Ingrid, the only difference is that this time Karen is a stronger system. But it may still lose. We will have to see if the TUTT(ULL) back to the west.

In some good news is Karen is now a 2.0+ Ace storm.

North of WNW ultimately puts Karen into the clear zone where she could regain everything...

[Gustywind]

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM THE NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
Hum...weakning trend pressures are not falling right now ... not good for Karen !

The weakening should continue for the next 24 hours or so. The GFDL brings Karen up to a Cat 4 now as she exits the shear. However, the estimated 990mb pressure yesterday was probably a bit overestimated I think.

Her current structure reminds me of Alberto last year...

OK tkanks CrazyC83 for you opinion i appreciate!

Whereas, as far i'm concerned given what my untrained eyes have seen or eyes are deceiving me ... this season and for the moment ... based on these multiples scenarios in eastern atlantic , i say ... if if if this trend continues we won't see this season a CV system crossing higher than 18N... hope i'm entierely wrong and October will demonstrate the opposite, but should it verifies...but no doubts Mother Nature has always big surprises in store) ...Ingrid "beat" Dean ( but were not a CV but an Oceanic system)... folks but right now if this tendency continues...meaning that Karen would not be better to" beat this record or tied it" folks ... so the record for a system with TD status or higher(in intensity and position more north and west beginning between 20-60w) .... and by extension to see a least a fish with at least a TD STATUS seems day after day looking at an utopia ... time wil tell i don't loose hope....

[ronjon]

Looks like it going to be a close call with the long term track of Karen for the US East Coast and Bermuda. 12Z GFS moves a very strong hurricane just off the coast from NC to New England. While the storm is weakening now, both the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF really bomb the storm out in 3-5 days.

[Evil Jeremy]

Latest Ukmet continues to show a westward, and now a path to the south after 5 days.

[canegrl04]

Looks like it going to be a close call with the long term track of Karen for the US East Coast and Bermuda. 12Z GFS moves a very strong hurricane just off the coast from NC to New England. While the storm is weakening now, both the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF really bomb the storm out in 3-5 days.

Just yesterday,most models showed a recurve.Today I see the cone has shifted considerably West and an affect on the US seems imminent from Karen in the days ahead.Hopefully not as a hurricane,but this is looking alittle scary

[ronjon]

12Z GFS run. Getting close to Bermuda and US East Coast.

[CrazyC83]

The mid-Atlantic ridge will play a huge role. I think Karen will lose the shear in about 48 hours (start to lose within 24, out of it around 48) as well.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like it going to be a close call with the long term track of Karen for the US East Coast and Bermuda. 12Z GFS moves a very strong hurricane just off the coast from NC to New England. While the storm is weakening now, both the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF really bomb the storm out in 3-5 days.

Just yesterday,most models showed a recurve.Today I see the cone has shifted considerably West and an affect on the US seems imminent from Karen in the days ahead.Hopefully not as a hurricane,but this is looking alittle scary

A late recurve would put Karen between Bermuda and the US East Coast. That would just create havoc on the water...but keep her safely offshore.

[Evil Jeremy]

12Z GFDL back west again!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

thanks guys very much for that shear information.

So if Karen can just make it through this brief rough period...it
may LIVE!!!!

[Gustywind]

This will be poof soon...US is protected from ANY storms this year. Yee hawww

Yeah absolutely partially agree with you...meaning that day after day for the moment good news us for US happy for you country be blessed my friends... but it's the opposite for us in the carib islands. Do you remember 2005?....extremely busy and amazing hurricane season for US but nothing for the Eastern Carib... and maybe this year it's "our turn" to feel unhopefully the effects of a busy season...just an opinion : ....Mother nature doesn't tell her cane plans before the end of the season....but forced to admit so far that the whole activity seems focalised in the Carib this year...thus if this trend
continues... but things can change quickly we should continue to monitor and see how this mid-end season will evolve!

[CrazyC83]

thanks guys very much for that shear information.

So if Karen can just make it through this brief rough period...it
may LIVE!!!!

Not just live, but thrive.

[tolakram]

Hanging on by a thread.

[BigA]

12Z GFS run. Getting close to Bermuda and US East Coast.

216 Hours! 9 days and this thing will still be in the Atlantic, assuming it survives! On a related note, it doesnt look like the system has degenerated any more after being ripped up this morning. The center hasn't moved any farther west from the convection, and a band is trying (although failing) to wrap toward the north side. I think being a fairly large system, it will survive in some form, as pretty much all the models (fish or no fish) have it surviving the shear. For example, the GFDL, which opened it in yesterday's model, now has it surviving and becoming a major hurricane.

[curtadams]

Karen is doing relatively well because she's now a subtropical storm with support from upper-air divergence generated by the ULL. You can see a big spray in the outflow to the east. That little sput she just put up is the only tropical thing she's done all day. The shear isn't going to kill her. Based on the fact that she *can* still generate a little tropical sputter even now I think she'll transition back to tropical just fine when the shear relaxes.

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL Intensity Animation

12z GFDL goes to hurricane.Bermuda has to watch Karen very closely.

[Gustywind]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
very strong winds shear in store apparently on this map...troubles ahead for Karen