Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[CrazyC83]

No sign of any kind of eyewall yet on NRL (maybe on the radar though?), so I doubt they will upgrade it until Recon confirms it or until the pictures change.

[CrazyC83]

Advisory in: Hurricane Lorenzo!

[CrazyC83]

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LORENZO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
700 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2007

...LORENZO BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA
TO VERACRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.2 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...125 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

LORENZO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE
CENTER CROSSES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LORENZO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 20 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE
COAST.

LORENZO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF VERACRUZ...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...20.4 N...96.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

NNNN

[HURAKAN]

343
WTNT33 KNHC 272352
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE LORENZO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
700 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2007

...LORENZO BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE COAST OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO
FROM PALMA SOLA TO CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA
TO VERACRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.2 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...125 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

LORENZO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE
CENTER CROSSES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LORENZO IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 20 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE
COAST.

LORENZO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF VERACRUZ...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...20.4 N...96.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Derek Ortt]

the bad news is that this area is fairly heavily populated and has a bad history with TCs

This is hitting very near where Diana did and this could be very similar in intensity to Diana

[Category 5]

Only 12 hours ago this was a depression. This is insanity.

[HURAKAN]

Only 12 hours ago this was a depression. This is insanity.

At 11 AM it was most likely a TS and will likely be reflected in the post-season.

[JonathanBelles]

Well dang! right up the ladder he went.

[CrazyC83]

Only 12 hours ago this was a depression. This is insanity.

At 11 AM it was most likely a TS and will likely be reflected in the post-season.

Yes, it probably was at 10 am CDT, but not at 7 am CDT (12 hours ago). So it probably took 10-11 hours to go from a TD to a cane.

[CrazyC83]

Well dang! right up the ladder he went.

Unlike Humberto, he still has time to move farther up as well. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Cat 2 out of this.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Once the convergents kicked in this thing went bang. I can't wait to see what the next recon has to say,. I think even if it was a tropical storm at 11am est, that this has beat humberto for his record from depression to hurricane.

[Sanibel]

Those black-topped IR tight bursts can sometimes indicate rapid intensification.

[PhillyWX]

Only 12 hours ago this was a depression. This is insanity.

At 11 AM it was most likely a TS and will likely be reflected in the post-season.

I agree with that.

[Air Force Met]

Well dang! right up the ladder he went.

Once again the ramp up possibilities of the small core system is demonstrated.

Maybe the lesson will be learned this time...but probably not.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This has now tied 2002 in number of hurricanes....4 a piece. If Karen becomes on this year will then tie 2006.

[Category 5]

This has now tied 2002 in number of hurricanes....4 a piece. If Karen becomes on this year will then tie 2006.

Also in named storms, 12 a piece.

[Sanibel]

Looks like a little zinger of a tight-cored hurricane is headed for Tuxpan, Mexico. That would be something if this stalled and went north along the coast.

[HURAKAN]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like a little zinger of a tight-cored hurricane is headed for Tuxpan, Mexico. That would be something if this stalled and went north along the coast.

If it can slow down and maybe even stall in the next 6 hours. In if it can stay over the BOC for the next 24 hours,,,that could happen.

58.4 Ace for 2007, we are now 8 or so ace away from tieing 2002. But 12-13 Ace away from 2006.

[wxmann_91]

Well dang! right up the ladder he went.

Once again the ramp up possibilities of the small core system is demonstrated.

Maybe the lesson will be learned this time...but probably not.

Frictional effects of land + diurnal maximum = rapid development of core.