Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[Stormcenter]

I think it's clear that the shear is the main inhibitor at this point. Any decrease in shear and we will have Gabrielle in our hands. I can't understand why meteorologists in the Carolinas could be downplaying this system.

Don't forget about that nice cool dry air to the north that ,if it develops,will likely be drawn into the storm. That is not going anywhere.

[BUD]

I think it's clear that the shear is the main inhibitor at this point. Any decrease in shear and we will have Gabrielle in our hands. I can't understand why meteorologists in the Carolinas could be downplaying this system.

I know it sounds bad or crazy but its about the $$$$$$$$$!!!!There have been many times I had to take my wife to work in hurricane winds and very strong TS winds.

[weatherman21]

The features which will dictate where the storm will track and how well it may intensify are all laid out for the most part. Simply, this storms future development depends on how quick the upper-layer trough exists to the east and stops influencing the storm and how strong the high pressure ridge builds in behind that trough to the north of the system. The GFS and WRF both call for the system to stall out for the next 24 hours and the GFDL seems to be in agreement also with this scenario. From there, the outcome will all depend on how far west the ridge will build and where the break in that ridge will be located. Beginning Friday morning, the WRF appears to take the storm on a more westward track than the GFS and GFDL solutions and has the storm very near Wilmington, NC by Sunday morning. Timing is everything and in the short-term, over the next 24-36 hours, most models are in agreement where the upper-layer trough will exit to the east and the ridge will build in behind that trough.

0Z WRF Guidance for 12Z Sunday morning:

[storms in NC]

Hey All Just got home. Daughter is doing fine after 10 hours of Heart surgery.

I have read or scan though some of the last few pages and it looks like not much happen today. But the NWC here said it wouldn't till Thursday and Friday. So maybe better Thursday. But looks like out to sea right now. But have to wait till I get up it the AM to run a few loops and see what is happening with 99L. You all have a good Night going to bed long day today.

Here is what Wilm had to say tonight


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE NEAR LATITUDE 29.37N AND LONGITUDE 70.33W
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING W UNDERNEATH A STRONG
RIDGE LOCATED FURTHER N. AS THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES W...IT
IS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON TROPICAL-LIKE CHARACTERISTICS AS IT
STRENGTHENS. AS IS GENERALLY THE CASE...THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF
THIS RIDGE WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH DURING SAT AS THE
STORM TURNS TO THE NW AND THEN N....MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING
SUN. STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS STORM SHOULD OCCUR DURING SAT.SAT
EVE. CURRENT FORECAST WILL CAP NE TO N SUSTAINED WINDS AT AROUND 20
MPH ALONG THE COAST...STRONGEST N WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OFFSHORE...AND IT MAY BE THAT MOST OF THE HEAVY
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYS ALONG AND E OF THE CENTER.
HOWEVER...WILL SHOW AN INCREASING TREND FROM WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE
AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL BE DIMINISHING FROM SW TO NE SAT
NIGHT...FALLING BELOW THRESHOLD EVERYWHERE DURING SUN. HIGH PRESSURE
TO N WILL RIDGE S ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTION OF CONVECTION UNTIL UPSTREAM COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

[Coredesat]

0Z WRF Guidance for 12Z Sunday morning:

Really big image

Hey, where do you get WRF output? I've been looking for it for a while now.

[storms in NC]

The features which will dictate where the storm will track and how well it may intensify are all laid out for the most part. Simply, this storms future development depends on how quick the upper-layer trough exists to the east and stops influencing the storm and how strong the high pressure ridge builds in behind that trough to the north of the system. The GFS and WRF both call for the system to stall out for the next 24 hours and the GFDL seems to be in agreement also with this scenario. From there, the outcome will all depend on how far west the ridge will build and where the break in that ridge will be located. Beginning Friday morning, the WRF appears to take the storm on a more westward track than the GFS and GFDL solutions and has the storm very near Wilmington, NC by Sunday morning. Timing is everything and in the short-term, over the next 24-36 hours, most models are in agreement where the upper-layer trough will exit to the east and the ridge will build in behind that trough.

0Z WRF Guidance for 12Z Sunday morning:

Oh Man it is going to smell the Cape Fear I really hope we do get some rain from this. But it will go out to sea.

[weatherSnoop]

As I look at this wv loop, I am reminded that Derek mentioned to watch the system out of Nova Scotia...looks a little moist and pushing down vigorously...FWIW

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[weatherSnoop]

Off topic...so glad to here your daughter's surgery went well today, storms.

[cpdaman]

so happy your daughter is doing well


allright now that the low has slowed/stalled from earlier

it appears the main player in regards to intensity (not track) is the upper trough/low just to the west of the LLC.

looking at this

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

and a closer look http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

i think the ull has gone from moving SSE to S and a hint of a SSW push now, i anticipate this to turn even more to the SW and slowly relax the shear over the system, this i believe will be the key to the intensity, how far away the LLC gets away from the ULL before it starts moving back west.

[Stormcenter]

As I look at this wv loop, I am reminded that Derek mentioned to watch the system out of Nova Scotia...looks a little moist and pushing down vigorously...FWIW

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

It is also cool air.

[skufful]

Storms in NC wrote, "Hey All Just got home. Daughter is doing fine after 10 hours of Heart surgery."

Partner, I don't know how or what the status of your daughter is, but you have my best wishes. With three under five, it breaks my heart to hear of anyone's childrens' suffering. Sorry to be off the subject. Hope no one gets any more than rain out of this event.

TCW - Beaufort, SC

[cycloneye]

While this decides to develop and things may be boring for some,why not go to Talking Tropics forum and look at a real big player that soon will for sure be the in the headlines.?

[Chacor]

While this decides to develop and things may be boring for some,why not go to Talking Tropics forum and look at a real big player that soon will for sure be the in the headlines.?

A tropical storm <s>set to affect</s> affecting Arizona and New Mexico and a typhoon set to make landfall almost over Tokyo later tonight... "boring"?

[cycloneye]

Boring in terms of 99L.

[weatherman21]

A closer look at at the NC/SC Coastline and what the 0Z WRF model run predicts for 12Z Sunday morning is shown below.
(Products used in this image are: Precipitable Water, MSL Pressure, and 1000MB Winds)

[brunota2003]

I knew there was a Hazardous Weather Outlook up for some coastal counties, but take a looky at it:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
500 AM EDT WED SEP 5 2007

NCZ095-103-104-060900-
CARTERET-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
500 AM EDT WED SEP 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL SECTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE SE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AND COULD POSSIBLY IMPACT THE COAST THIS WEEKEND AS A
TROPICAL STORM OR MINIMAL HURRICANE. HOWEVER...THE TRACK...TIMING
AND INTENSITY CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. MARINERS AND
PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

For anyone interested, here is the 00Z GFS at 84 hours out:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

[fasterdisaster]

It's looking a little better now, perhaps it may have just been the diurnal minimum.

[jaxfladude]

Hey All Just got home. Daughter is doing fine after 10 hours of Heart surgery.

Prayers for a full recovery and the good news...

[Coredesat]

Convection is deepening but doesn't seem to be getting any closer to the center yet. However, IR2 shows that the LLC is becoming sharply elongated from SW to NE. The trough may be sweeping it away.

[Epsilon_Fan]

It looks rather sorry at this point... almost every bit of convection is gone from near the center. It's like a smokestack blowing to the NE