Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[HouTXmetro]

Nothing is concrete, I would also note the increasing convection near the upper Low...

[Stormcenter]

Well it sounds like the NHC has named their center this evening.
I can't say I disagree with them right now it's the best chance out there for development. IMO

[jaxfladude]

deleted

[Stratosphere747]

I think some of my fellow Texans need to take a break or a deep breath. If by chance another low does not take hole, then our neighbors along the NGOM will likely be effected much sooner than we will. How severe? Who knows, but we have a bit more time to worry than they do however this plays out.

Scott

[jaxfladude]

I was at the beaches from Ponte Vedra to just north of St. Augustine and I can tell you it was very windy, easily gale force gust and probaly sustained in some of the squalls. Im just happy we are finally getting some rain, I expect it to dry out tommorow. Hopefully the surf will clean up, down south got the goods today.

Weather Channel's Jim Cantori just did a live shot from the Jax Beaches area, forgot the exact location...

[Weatherfreak000]

Just because the storm is further South of the Global Model's initialization point, it doesn't change what the models are seeing.

NOGAPS is showing the Pro Met's decision, this seems to be a consistent model.

UKMET is showing a vast weakness, making it possible for a Panhandle hit.


The point is all that truly matters is the weakness of the ridge. Period.

[Portastorm]

Well, there you have it. The low is over central Florida and I might add a farily strong one. Producing near TD conditions. NHC Said interest along North Gulf Coast so looks to me like the NW track is favored. Case closed fow now. Even the mets get em wrong once in awhile

Case closed? What case? There is still no definitive, authoritative analysis of where the actual tropical low (if it forms) will form, no unanimous model consensus ... what are you talking about??!!

Fairly obvious if you read the update. They see the central FLorida low as the dominate one so for now that should end the debate as too which is dominate. Further you could make the case that the North Gulf coast means La to the Panhandle. They seems to be relying on the Nam and GFs solutions. Funny how it seems posters from Texas just don't want to hear this.

Caneman, please don't paint me with that barn-sized brush of yours ... I have not made one post in derision of the NAM or GFS. I have no clue what model is right and what model isn't. I have suggested that the Euro was awfully sharp earlier this year and that was it. And actually, I would love to hear the NHC say this storm would move well to our east and that they are banking their forecast on the GFS and NAM as I hope the thing stays far away. So I'm one Texas-based poster that doesn't mind hearing that at all. But you will get an argument from me in suggesting that any "case is closed" regarding this situation. Even our pro mets are not in agreement if you've followed their posts. And I also would contend that the upper Texas coast area is definitely part of the "northern Gulf coast."

[jasons2k]

RE: The center. All I can say is that I'm baffled. The graphic that AFM posted earlier was aa clear as a bell. Yes, the link worked if you pasted it into a new tab/window.

[lrak]

i'm hoping the ULL will trek wNw and be a minimal Hybrid TS and push a perfect East petch of 6ft swell towards the Tx coast. Can only dream.

[CrazyC83]

I think this has split into two: the low in the Gulf now is the better one IMO and could be (S)TD10 soon, while the other one over NE Florida is struggling...

[amawea]

If you look at the latest AVN infra red loop you can clearly see that the main development is just southwest of Tampa in the eastern Gulf. It looks to be organizing or moving slightly southwest.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[Diva]

Dr. Lyons didn't even mention TX in his latest Tropical update. He said LA to FL.

[Brent]

854
ABNT20 KNHC 200223
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED. SURFACE PRESSURES
ARE STILL FALLING SHARPLY AND THE ENVIRONMENT IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
FAVORABLE FOR A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM...AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ALL
INTEREST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS WEATHER DISTURBANCE.

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NORTHEASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF INGRID. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

Very strong wording from the NHC.

[jhamps10]

If you look at the latest AVN infra red loop you ca clearly see that th main development is just southwest of Tamp in the eastern Gulf. It looks to be organizing or moving slightly southwest.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

it is moving slightly SW. maybe 3 or 4 MPH, but it is moving SW to my eyes anyway.

[hicksta]

RE: The center. All I can say is that I'm baffled. The graphic that AFM posted earlier was aa clear as a bell. Yes, the link worked if you pasted it into a new tab/window.

100%

[wiggles]

He said the same thing at his 8:50 update as well

[cycloneye]

Dr. Lyons didn't even mention TX in his latest Tropical update. He said LA to FL.

Yes,I can confirm he said those words as I saw his update.

[Portastorm]

Dr. Lyons didn't even mention TX in his latest Tropical update. He said LA to FL.

Tell you what, I'll feel much safer if Jim Cantore comes down here this weekend ... then I'll know we can sound the "all clear!"

[Stratosphere747]

RE: The center. All I can say is that I'm baffled. The graphic that AFM posted earlier was aa clear as a bell. Yes, the link worked if you pasted it into a new tab/window.

I think in the short-term it's based on continuity, just in case. If that center to the N stays intact enough than portions of the NGOM will be effected much sooner.

Despite being a "texan" I'm looking more to the S as well, but can understand why others along the NGOM would have some concern.

[lrak]

I wonder it the ULL could cause the may yet soon to be TD10 do a u turn back down into the GOM and hit the N GOM coast?