Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[cycloneye]

But 12-13 Ace away from 2006.

Karen for sure will add much more.

[MiamiensisWx]

We may come close to a distinct eye. There are some signs (on IR) of a warm depression attempting to form near the convective "towers" in the CDO's center. I think it's safe to utilize "rapid intensification" here. I think frictional effects will prevent intensification beyond Category 2 status, but the excellent ventilation (via UL anticyclone and 5 kts of shear) + heat content = deepening trend until landfall.

Last GOES visible imagery before night

[bwhorton2007]

ok where's the crow?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I just ate a huge plate of crow. I deserve to eat it.

[bwhorton2007]

just kidding around Matt persnally i'm stunned because this was a ragged mess yesterday.i know the forecast is for Mexico but im a little worried about the next front now.

[stormcrow]

Alert to all crows go into hiding and stay in hiding until Karen lands>

[jeff]

just kidding around Matt persnally i'm stunned because this was a ragged mess yesterday.i know the forecast is for Mexico but im a little worried about the next front now.

13 was not a mess yesterday it was organizing...typical of Gulf systems...convective phases. As AFM said maybe at some point people will finally get the tune that small inner core system can spin up very fast ie the "vortcane" term. They can also weaken very fast if the small inner core is disrupted in any way...slight shear or passing over a small land mass that would normally not affect a larger hurricane.

[bwhorton2007]

duh,jeff!

[jeff]

just kidding around Matt persnally i'm stunned because this was a ragged mess yesterday.i know the forecast is for Mexico but im a little worried about the next front now.

13 was not a mess yesterday it was organizing...typical of Gulf systems...convective phases. As AFM said maybe at some point people will finally get the tune that small inner core system can spin up very fast ie the "vortcane" term. They can also weaken very fast if the small inner core is disrupted in any way...slight shear or passing over a small land mass that would normally not affect a larger hurricane.

There should be little worry about any fronts as this will be inland and long gone center wise before a front could do anything. Now some of the moisture may be drawn N early next week.

[jeff]

just kidding around Matt persnally i'm stunned because this was a ragged mess yesterday.i know the forecast is for Mexico but im a little worried about the next front now.

13 was not a mess yesterday it was organizing...typical of Gulf systems...convective phases. As AFM said maybe at some point people will finally get the tune that small inner core system can spin up very fast ie the "vortcane" term. They can also weaken very fast if the small inner core is disrupted in any way...slight shear or passing over a small land mass that would normally not affect a larger hurricane.

There should be little worry about any fronts as this will be inland and long gone center wise before a front could do anything. Now some of the moisture may be drawn N early next week.

Of more interest maybe the models moderate support for lower pressures to develop early next week from the Bahamas back to the NW Caribbean with varying track toward the W and NW (GFS). HPC had a decent disco. on the possibilities this afternoon. Could be yet another Gulf system depending on where a center forms.

[bwhorton2007]

Off course your correct as usual but i'm not going to stop kidding around a little.

[HURAKAN]

[MiamiensisWx]

I have a question for the professionals and others on this excellent board. Can a developing outer band (associated with decent low-level convergence) signify the beginning of a RI event? On WV imagery, you can see the convective band developing NW of Lorenzo "in sync" with the storm's quick pre-landfall deepening trend. I have seen this trend with Charley and numerous other storms (especially compact systems) when a fast strengthening trend started to run its course.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-wv.html

By the way, props to those (amateur, professional, and others) who stated the possibility for intensification to a hurricane before MX landfall. Good job, wxman57 and others!

[wxman57]

I agree with the NHC discussion as far as increasing shear over the disturbance this afternoon. Center is more exposed now. But the shear will diminish tonight/tomorrow. Very little movement next 2-3 days and favorable upper-air environment could lead to rapid development and intensification to a hurricane by Thursday, maybe even hurricane strength late Wednesday. Nothing to steer it northward (or about anywhere else until Thursday. On Friday/Saturday, most global models indicate a building ridge over TX and the Gulf. Mean 700-400mb flow vectors (GFS) show NE-ENE flow around 10 kts across the SW Gulf by late Thursday. That may steer the system slowly west or southwest into Mexico over the weekend. No indications of any deep trof that would pick it up and carry it northward at any time in the next week.

I was just recalling a post I made on Monday regarding Lorenzo becoming a hurricane today then moving west into Mexico...

[jeff]

I have a question for the professionals and others on this excellent board. Can a developing outer band (associated with decent low-level convergence) signifiy the beginning of a RI event? On WV imagery, you can see the convective band developing NW of Lorenzo "in sync" with the storm's quick pre-landfall deepening trend. I have seen this trend with Charley and numerous other storms (especially compact systems) when a fast strengthening trend started to run its course.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-wv.html

By the way, props to those (amateur, professional, and others) who stated the possibility for intensification to a hurricane before MX landfall. Good job, wxman57 and others!

The RI has more to do with the small inner core and near excellent upper air outflow pattern. I have not read anything in any of the atmo journals on your exact question...but would lean toward that it is not all that important with a system such as Lorenzo or Humberto...Maybe some other mets have seen something on this question

[srainhoutx]

That's why you make the big bucks, wxman57. Great forecasting.

[RL3AO]

I agree with the NHC discussion as far as increasing shear over the disturbance this afternoon. Center is more exposed now. But the shear will diminish tonight/tomorrow. Very little movement next 2-3 days and favorable upper-air environment could lead to rapid development and intensification to a hurricane by Thursday, maybe even hurricane strength late Wednesday. Nothing to steer it northward (or about anywhere else until Thursday. On Friday/Saturday, most global models indicate a building ridge over TX and the Gulf. Mean 700-400mb flow vectors (GFS) show NE-ENE flow around 10 kts across the SW Gulf by late Thursday. That may steer the system slowly west or southwest into Mexico over the weekend. No indications of any deep trof that would pick it up and carry it northward at any time in the next week.

I was just recalling a post I made on Monday regarding Lorenzo becoming a hurricane today then moving west into Mexico...

Nice prediction/call/forecast wxman.

[Over my head]

We may come close to a distinct eye. There are some signs (on IR) of a warm depression attempting to form near the convective "towers" in the CDO's center. I think it's safe to utilize "rapid intensification" here. I think frictional effects will prevent intensification beyond Category 2 status, but the excellent ventilation (via UL anticyclone and 5 kts of shear) + heat content = deepening trend until landfall.

Last GOES visible imagery before night

I just looked at this animation and it shows it growing bigger in each frame... but I see no spin. Why does this one not have the same spinning look that the others in the past few weeks have
had ?

[Derek Ortt]

yeah... good job, it did become a hurricane by Thursday... conservative Derek got burned again

[cpdaman]

yes that was a great call on monday

but reading thru the comments today, some said recon should hurry to reach this one squall storm or they may miss it.