CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[tracyswfla]

ITS DEAN! look at NRL...it says 04L DEAN

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... k_vis/dmsp

IT's not official til NHC sends it out though, right? When it does happen, watch the media cause mass panic. Especially with the models.

Yep, remember Pilar in 2005? Nothing is official until the NHC says so.

I smell a special tropical disturbance bulletin before 11am. With official product at 11am

[Steve]

>>The scenario for a South Florida threat is very real at this point.

Longrange models (look at the SFWD "white map") are in keeping with what's going on in the WPAC with Sepat. Check out the angles of the bends. We don't know if Sepat is going to do what the JTWC has up now for a track, but if so, it would be somewhat uncanny to see something heading up through S FL in the 7-9 day range.

https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp0907.gif

Looks like what steers Sepat is a N-S oriented, elongated ridge

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

Similar to the what a couple of the Globals are throwing into the WATL in recent runs.

Steve

[gatorcane]

No need for a special statement given where it is.

You will see it upgraded at 11:00AM EST by the NHC....

[Ivanhater]

Well this storm is certainly not a let down as far as intensity and track

[EyELeSs1]

seems like the easterly shear is easing up some...looks like it was almost a bit of NE shear that affected the storm and forced it a bit wsw of last fix.

looks like dean is starting to come together now with a strong burst directly over the LLC and and some outflow expanding northward and maybe even trying to peek out eastward

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I'm worried. I have relatives in Antigua. And it is forecasted
to head there.

[Chacor]

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=97026 Thread 2, since we're nearly at 26 pages here.

[HURAKAN]

I smell a special tropical disturbance bulletin before 11am. With official product at 11am

I see no need for a STDS. It's already almost 10 AM EDT.

[Scorpion]

I'm worried. I have relatives in Antigua. And it is forecasted
to head there.

They had better be ready for a Cat 4

[Chacor]

I'm worried. I have relatives in Antigua. And it is forecasted
to head there.

They had better be ready for a Cat 4

Okay, this post makes no sense. Evidence to support a cat 4?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I hope this misses antigua because i dont want my
relatives to be hit.

[KBBOCA]

Chacor, they're no longer limiting threads to 25 pages in the active storms forum. You can delete the 2nd thread.

[EyELeSs1]

I'm worried. I have relatives in Antigua. And it is forecasted
to head there.

Tampa Bay Hurricane i also live in antigua. DO you know which part of the island they live on?

Will keep u posted on the happenings here if that helps

[gatorcane]

Here is the track that I think this system may take....or at least very similar...its just my opinion.

as you can see systems here don't necessarily recurve when they form this far out this time of year.

Look at system #4 (the Great Okeechobie Hurricane of 1947). See how WSW it went first, just like our system. It then went WNW and finally bent West once it felt a ridge over the Eastern Conus.

[Scorpion]

I'm worried. I have relatives in Antigua. And it is forecasted
to head there.

They had better be ready for a Cat 4

Okay, this post makes no sense. Evidence to support a cat 4?

By the time it reaches the islands it should be a Cat 1/2... its always good to be prepared for 1-2 categories higher

[Chacor]

Chacor, they're no longer limiting threads to 25 pages in the active storms forum. You can delete the 2nd thread.

It's been replied to so a mod will have to do it. But I did not see where it was said here threads can go beyond 25 pages.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Not sure the part where the medical school is...because they are going to
med school there.

[HurryKane]

Chacor, they're no longer limiting threads to 25 pages in the active storms forum. You can delete the 2nd thread.

It's been replied to so a mod will have to do it. But I did not see where it was said here threads can go beyond 25 pages.

viewtopic.php?p=1592697#p1592697

[Derek Ortt]

this could easily reach as a 3, especially if the convection is underneath the convection

[gatorcane]

this could easily reach as a 3, especially if the convection is underneath the convection

agreed and I think it will be a major...especially if it manages to miss the big islands to the NE (which I think it may).