CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[meteorologyman]

Dang it I lost the link the Navy indicated that the TD4 is a Tropical Storm Dean now

[EyELeSs1]

Not sure the part where the medical school is...because they are going to
med school there.

oh they are medical students. Then they don't live very far from the north side which is where I live

[Wx_Warrior]

Morning all!

What time is the next model run?

[cheezyWXguy]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[EyELeSs1]

this could easily reach as a 3, especially if the convection is underneath the convection

am not good! Derek you say 'easily' do you think this is the case and that the intensity will have to be revised upwards @ some point?

[Scorpion]

6z GFDL hammers Virgin Islands and is on track to hit PR as a 4

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I just hope this misses antigua...
And I am concerned that this system is likely to strengthen based
on the environment it is in, oceanic heat content increases as it
moves west.

[meteorologyman]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Thank you that was it

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

The latest update of the models represents a greater threat to Puerto Rico..lets see how the NHC adjusts their track in the upcoming advisory.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_04.gif

[gatorcane]

6z GFDL hammers Virgin Islands and is on track to hit PR as a 4

Wow you are right....I would think the islands are in buckling down as we speak.

[Derek Ortt]

well... go to nwhhc.com to see the latest forecast... which may have to require a special update in about an hour to reflect some latest changes with the center position. That one already had a amrginal 3 striking the Carib... next on may not be as nice

[Scorpion]

[storms in NC]

That center fix is from the 5am advisory, I believe and they only update it at advisorys, so that center fix could be 4 hours old, even if the satelite picture isnt

That is where I see it at. But we will see at 11Am to where they have it.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The latest update of the models represents a greater threat to Puerto Rico..lets see how the NHC adjusts their track in the upcoming advisory.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_04.gif

yeah the NHC track needs to be shifted. They are way too far NE now and are actually an outlier compared to the latest model consensus.

[Ivanhater]

NHC on the North side of guidance now..they will likely adjust south

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Puerto Rico/The Islands/
Anyone in this region needs to be preparing for a significant hurricane.
THis could become category 2-3 based on oceanic heat
content in the region.

[Scorpion]

[KWT]

Wow that HWRF is amazing to see, 920mbs cat-4/5 about to hit PR, amazing but slightly scary it has to be said. Looks like its starting to head NW by that point as wlel, would pass probably through the Mona passage or just hit east.DR.

[Scorpion]

Wow... I am very worried for that area now. You have a link to the WRF?

[Scorpion]

Btw... HWRF is 920 mb at PR