Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[vbhoutex]

Ok, the storm my be gone in a couple days, but where are the rains going to go?

Mexico first and possbily points north later on( in several days), but not of the intensity Mexico will see in the next few days.

[americanrebel]

So TX and LA will get rain from Lorenzo, good.

[Category 5]

I spy a little eye.

[Derek Ortt]

no obs as of yet

[lrak]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 280241
TCDAT3
HURRICANE LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2007


THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/5. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD
KEEP THE CYCLONE ON THIS BASIC TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO...WITH A GRADUAL BEND TO THE RIGHT AROUND THE RIDGE AFTER
LANDFALL.
ALTHOUGH LORENZO IS A VERY SMALL HURRICANE...ITS SLOW MOTION WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...UP TO 15 INCHES IN SPOTS...THAT
ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

with the coast being as it is, wouldn't that take it back over water maybe Friday night or Sat?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I think lorenzo reaches 100 mph prior to landfall and then as
it rides the ridge it turns north...

[Category 5]

I think lorenzo reaches 100 mph prior to landfall and then as
it rides the ridge it turns north...

Considering recon hasn't been out there in several hours, it's quite possible that it could be stronger then 80mph. Which in that case, I could see it hitting 100mph.

[HURAKAN]

[americanrebel]

I was thinking the same thing, that the storm rides around the ridge, is there a chance this storm could survive and move back into the GOM. This storm has done everything totally against the models.

[Stratosphere747]

Starting to wonder if recon was canceled with LF happening a bit sooner?

[cycloneye]

It is possible that the mission has been canceled due to the eye getting very close to the coast.

[cpdaman]

guys imagine you are heading west toward the mexican coast in a boat (.....ready) and then after landfall you gradually make a right hand turn. i.e still a westerly component (albeit it NW) = you are still over land

[Derek Ortt]

I doubt that... maybe communications problems

[lrak]

guys imagine you are heading west toward the mexican coast in a boat (.....ready) and then after landfall you gradually make a right hand turn. i.e still a westerly component (albeit it NW) = you are still over land

wow thats really catchy

[americanrebel]

Its only been 1 hour since taking off, there could of been a slight delay. I would expect RECON in about an hour or so.

[americanrebel]

If it continues the right turn from W to NW to N to E then it would end up in the GOM, It never said it would be just a slight right turn, but a right turn around the ridge.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 280340
AF301 0613A LORENZO HDOB 01 20070928
033230 3025N 08855W 0132 00000 0132 +260 +260 360000 000 999 999 03
033300 3025N 08855W 0132 00001 0134 +260 +260 360000 000 999 999 03
033330 3025N 08855W 0132 00000 0132 +264 +264 360000 000 999 999 03
033400 3025N 08855W 0132 00000 0132 +266 +262 360000 000 999 999 03
033430 3025N 08855W 0132 00000 0132 +266 +264 360000 000 999 999 03
033500 3025N 08855W 0132 00000 0132 +266 +264 360000 000 999 999 03
033530 3025N 08855W 0132 00001 0134 +266 +264 360000 000 999 999 03
033600 3025N 08855W 0132 00000 0132 +266 +266 360000 000 999 999 03
033630 3025N 08855W 0132 00000 0132 +264 +264 360000 000 999 999 03
033700 3025N 08855W 0132 00000 0132 +260 +260 360000 000 999 999 03
033730 3025N 08855W 0132 00000 0132 +260 +260 360000 000 999 999 03
033800 3025N 08855W 0132 00000 0132 +260 +260 360000 000 999 999 03
033830 3025N 08855W 0132 00000 0132 +260 +260 360000 000 999 999 03
033900 3025N 08855W 0132 00000 0132 +260 +260 360000 000 999 999 03
033930 3025N 08855W 0132 00000 0132 +260 +260 360000 000 999 999 03
034000 3025N 08855W 0132 00000 0132 +260 +260 360000 000 999 999 03
034030 3025N 08855W 0132 00000 0132 +266 +266 360000 000 999 999 03
034100 3025N 08855W 0132 00000 0132 +260 +260 345002 004 999 999 03
034130 3024N 08856W 9992 00121 0130 +256 +236 278005 007 999 999 03
034200 3023N 08857W 9665 00424 0143 +234 +214 295007 009 999 999 03
$$

Takeoff probably was delayed.

[HURAKAN]

Starting to wonder if recon was canceled with LF happening a bit sooner?

900
URNT15 KNHC 280340
AF301 0613A LORENZO HDOB 01 20070928
033230 3025N 08855W 0132 00000 0132 +260 +260 360000 000 999 999 03
033300 3025N 08855W 0132 00001 0134 +260 +260 360000 000 999 999 03
033330 3025N 08855W 0132 00000 0132 +264 +264 360000 000 999 999 03
033400 3025N 08855W 0132 00000 0132 +266 +262 360000 000 999 999 03
033430 3025N 08855W 0132 00000 0132 +266 +264 360000 000 999 999 03
033500 3025N 08855W 0132 00000 0132 +266 +264 360000 000 999 999 03
033530 3025N 08855W 0132 00001 0134 +266 +264 360000 000 999 999 03
033600 3025N 08855W 0132 00000 0132 +266 +266 360000 000 999 999 03
033630 3025N 08855W 0132 00000 0132 +264 +264 360000 000 999 999 03
033700 3025N 08855W 0132 00000 0132 +260 +260 360000 000 999 999 03
033730 3025N 08855W 0132 00000 0132 +260 +260 360000 000 999 999 03
033800 3025N 08855W 0132 00000 0132 +260 +260 360000 000 999 999 03
033830 3025N 08855W 0132 00000 0132 +260 +260 360000 000 999 999 03
033900 3025N 08855W 0132 00000 0132 +260 +260 360000 000 999 999 03
033930 3025N 08855W 0132 00000 0132 +260 +260 360000 000 999 999 03
034000 3025N 08855W 0132 00000 0132 +260 +260 360000 000 999 999 03
034030 3025N 08855W 0132 00000 0132 +266 +266 360000 000 999 999 03
034100 3025N 08855W 0132 00000 0132 +260 +260 345002 004 999 999 03
034130 3024N 08856W 9992 00121 0130 +256 +236 278005 007 999 999 03
034200 3023N 08857W 9665 00424 0143 +234 +214 295007 009 999 999 03
$$

[Stratosphere747]

Meh...

I guess better late than never. Probably has already missed Lorenzo at his peak.

[americanrebel]

Am I figuring this our right, this flight is originating from Pensacola?