Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[Category 5]

Is there any chance of karen rebounding into something nasty ?

You never know. Heck, look at Lorenzo.

Andrew was a sorry little sheered mess for alot of it's life, look how that turned out. We can only pray that Karen just stays weak and away from any land.

[bwhorton2007]

Well the tropics don't always follow the rules!

[BigA]

I find myself in the middle camp right now. The storm probably will survive the shear; unlike Ingrid, none of the models are dissapating it, and a bend back to the left looks possible to likely. That said, this system is at least 8-9 days away from the US, so there is no need for any particular concern right now. Definitely worth watching though.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Euro has a major Karen right down the heart of Miami at 240 hours.

All I have to say is

Models are bending to the left at the end so the NHC track will need to bend to the left...and that may start scaring people

In addition Karen is not even heading NW sot he models are wrong (and have been wrong) so far.

-removed-?????

The models have clearly shown a westerly trend, and
as usual, underestimate the ridge.

[curtadams]

It *would* be more vulnerable to shear - but the reason we're seeing the CDO reappear is that shear has relaxed. At the same time the divergence to the east weakened, so that subtropical arc weakened. If the shear recovers but the divergence stays low Karen will weaken a lot.

I don't really understand why the shear is relaxing. You can see the high cirrus coming at Karen from the NW. But, obviously, it's not getting to the LLC right now.

[Category 5]

Well the tropics don't always follow the rules!

As far as I'm concerned, after 2005, there are no rules.

[JTD]

No we shouldn't completely discount it. Anything can happen and the European has been great this year. But in one sentence you say the models are bending left so the NHC will have to as well. Then in the very next sentence you say "the models are wrong." So which is it? And finally, this is nothing for anyone to get scared about just b/c a 10-day model is showing this. At one time there was a very real threat of Dean coming towards Texas but it was nothing to get "scared" about. Now, if in 9 days from now you are in a Hurricane Watch, then maybe you should be a little scared, but not yet, far from it.

Actually the models were very insistent on Dean hitting the Yucatan starting about the Wednesday after it formed with the exception of the GFDL. There seemed to be a suspension of disbelief on the board that it would actually hit Yucatan/Mainland Mexico when the models clearly demonstrated why and how it would. Not a "very real" threat at all imo and at no time as I recall did the NHC black line point to Texas in the extended range.

[bwhorton2007]

I said yesterday that i didn't see karen making it across either but things have changed and there is now an outside chance it may happen.

[gatorcane]

This last NHC discussion is surprising. Where is that trough that they have consistently mentioned the past several days? What happened to the weak mid atlantic ridge? Suddenly there is alot of ridge talk in their discussion.

Is this just me or have they changed their tune?

KAREN IS MOVING AT 305/11...WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION CONTINUING
DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO AS KAREN PROPAGATES WITHIN THE
DEEP-LAYERED FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE AGREEING IN BUILDING THE MID- LEVEL RIDGE MORE
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE CAUSING KAREN TO TURN MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS.

[Category 5]

Settle down guys, it's a long way off and the bend isn't even forecast to happen for 4-5 days.

[chadtm80]

[jasons2k]

No we shouldn't completely discount it. Anything can happen and the European has been great this year. But in one sentence you say the models are bending left so the NHC will have to as well. Then in the very next sentence you say "the models are wrong." So which is it? And finally, this is nothing for anyone to get scared about just b/c a 10-day model is showing this. At one time there was a very real threat of Dean coming towards Texas but it was nothing to get "scared" about. Now, if in 9 days from now you are in a Hurricane Watch, then maybe you should be a little scared, but not yet, far from it.

Actually the models were very insistent on Dean hitting the Yucatan starting about the Wednesday after it formed with the exception of the GFDL. There seemed to be a suspension of disbelief on the board that it would actually hit Yucatan/Mainland Mexico when the models clearly demonstrated why and how it would. Not a "very real" threat at all imo and at no time as I recall did the NHC black line point to Texas in the extended range.

I beg to differ, this is an email from a Pro-met, Jeff Linder on the track of Dean:

Track:

GIV upper air mission data was ingested into the models last evening and the result is a weaker SE US high and more of a poleward turn toward the NW in the Gulf of Mexico. The trusty GFDL and UKMET continue to point toward an upper TX coast strike while the GFS remains aimed at N Mexico. GFS ensembles have trended northward as well suggesting a higher threat to TX. Key forecast track factor hinges on weakness in ridge over TX caused by Erin and upper level TUTT over the Bahamas. TUTT is forecasted to move westward toward TX arriving Sun/Mon with Dean following behind from the SE. Due to the ridge weakness left by Erin the TUTT may slow as it reaches the western extent of the sub-tropical high over TX allowing Dean to turn more NW in the Gulf. This is what is being suggested by the latest guidance with the GIV data. With this in mind a dangerous hurricane is forecasted to be moving into the Gulf of Mexico late Tuesday and possibly be in the western Gulf by early Thursday. Extrapolation of NHC 5-day forecast point shows a landfall near Brownsville.

It is strong urged that residents not focus on the thin black line in the forecast track but the overall forecast error cone. There is equal risk within the cone…remember Rita

Dean is forecasted to be a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico with a potential threat to the TX coast.

Residents should review their hurricane action plans and be fully prepared to put them to use early next week.

Evacuation zone areas should review their evacuation route plans and be prepared for possible evacuation orders early next week.

The state of TX along with local emergency planners will be activating their plans for the arrival of adverse conditions by early Thursday morning…including moving fuel supplies to the coast and evac. routes and sweeping evacuation routes for road hazards. TXDOT will be preparing contraflow exchange points on I-45, US 290, I-10, US 59 this weekend in the event mass evacuations are required. US 290 hurrevac lane (shoulder) will be prepared for traffic flow this weekend.

Will continue updates through the weekend.

Furthermore, the President declared a State of Emergency for the State of Texas: http://www.fema.gov/news/newsrelease.fema?id=38889

Even Governor Blanco delcared a State of Emergency for Louisiana.

So, I'd say at one time Dean was indeed considered a real threat to Texas. But the whole point of my post was that it was still nothing to get scared about, as Dean stayed on its westward path towards the Yucatan.

That situation is completely different than a 10-day run. I don't see any pro-mets thus far calling for Florida residents to prepare their evacutation plans, the State of Florida going into emergency operations mode, or the President declaring a State of Emergency for Karen. You can't compare the two.

Now, back on topic, just to clarify, I am not saying Karen cannot or will not be a threat down the road to Florida. It's too early to make that call. ATTM it's nothing to be scared about, it's just something that needs to be monitored.

[vegastar]

In the 21:00Z Meteosat image the center is now under the convection:

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/listImages.pl?m=prod,a=0,sa=9,pr=MPEF,f=1,c=MPE,se=4,n=24,d=1,v=100,pp=0,t=200709272030#controls

[canegrl04]

Lets hope she is not a hurricane when she does

[deltadog03]

They DID NOT underestimate the ridge. The shear zone is there. Its just weaker and therefore more west movement.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

They DID NOT underestimate the ridge. The shear zone is there. Its just weaker and therefore more west movement.

That's true for the 3 day forecasts but at days 4-5 they previously
underestimated the ridge in light of what seems to be
unfolding now. Of course things could change though.

[cycloneye]

[robbielyn]

It *would* be more vulnerable to shear - but the reason we're seeing the CDO reappear is that shear has relaxed. At the same time the divergence to the east weakened, so that subtropical arc weakened. If the shear recovers but the divergence stays low Karen will weaken a lot.

I don't really understand why the shear is relaxing. You can see the high cirrus coming at Karen from the NW. But, obviously, it's not getting to the LLC right now.

Maybe I am wrong but it looks like to me the llc is wanting to go beneath the 'radar' so to speak and escape the shear.

[canegrl04]

I still think a shift west for the NHC for the next advisory
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

Verified at 5pm. Check out the end of that cone.

Looks like the ridge is going to bend Karen back in the direction of the US by Tues.

[bwhorton2007]

it could be the trough they forecast is not as strong or deep as they thought.