TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[StJoe]

Hebert Box:

[cycloneye]

Look at the history of the tracks from where TD 8 was at 11 AM.

[windstorm99]

Deep reds coming back...TS soon if not tonight at 5am.

[windstorm99]

SST'S get warmer in its path...

[mattpetre]

Look at the history of the tracks from where TD 8 was at 11 AM.

Looks to me that the chances are rather good of this storm being a rebel then...

[hial2]

Hebert Box:

Most hurricanes that have hit Fl coming from the Atlantic go thru the Hebert box...but not every hurricane that goes thru the box hits Fl..BTW, I understand there are 2 Hebert boxes (another in the Caribbean)..

[CrazyC83]

I'd say it is a TS right now. My estimate is 40 kt and pressure 1004mb.

[cycloneye]

Bouy 41041

Pressure is falling fast and winds are picking up in this bouy located NW of the center.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

More on Accuweather's thinking....

LOL. I might agree with the track, but not the intensity.

They have it traveling appox. 1000 miles in 50 hours to get that position near the leeward is. That would require an average speed of 20 mph which I just don't see happening given the present setup. Also, none of the models are even remotely as fast with the movement.

[BigA]

Bouy 41041

Pressure is falling fast and winds are picking up in this bouy located NW of the center.

We know that TD8's pressure is not higher than 1008.8 millibars.

That would be pretty awesome if the NHC could upgrade it based on buoy data.

[Gustywind]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... k_vis/dmsp

[gatorcane]

Look at the history of the tracks from where TD 8 was at 11 AM.

Looks to me that the chances are rather good of this storm being a rebel then...

no...because that graphic will change as the storm moves more west.....

(you will see less fish storms)

[seaswing]

Look at the history of the tracks from where TD 8 was at 11 AM.

Looks to me that the chances are rather good of this storm being a rebel then...

no...because that graphic will change as the storm moves more west.....

(you will see less fish storms)

Agreed Gatorcane

[gatorcane]

is it me or is this board going to be on the edge of their seats for the next 10 days....

[alienstorm]

Frm NWS Miami

EXTENDED PERIOD (SUN-WED)...
PATTERN CHANGES SLIGHTLY AS ATLANTIC HIGH BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE
TO A STRONG TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A BUILDING HIGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES, WITH LITTLE
OVERALL EFFECTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY WHEN SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING A MID/UPPER LOW
CUTTING OFF OVER OR JUST EAST OF FLORIDA. THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER
LOW NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA IN SEPTEMBER USUALLY MEANS AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME EVEN BEING STRONG...BUT TOO EARLY
TO JUMP ON THIS ENTIRELY. WILL KEEP THE USUAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED
IF/WHEN MODELS KEY IN ON THE CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK.

If this does form than the likelihood of what ever is east of Florida will be steered more to the northwest or north.

[seaswing]

is it me or is this board going to be on the edge of their seats for the next 10 days....

You think it will take that long?

[gatorcane]

Frm NWS Miami

EXTENDED PERIOD (SUN-WED)...
PATTERN CHANGES SLIGHTLY AS ATLANTIC HIGH BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE
TO A STRONG TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A BUILDING HIGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES, WITH LITTLE
OVERALL EFFECTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY WHEN SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING A MID/UPPER LOW
CUTTING OFF OVER OR JUST EAST OF FLORIDA. THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER
LOW NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA IN SEPTEMBER USUALLY MEANS AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME EVEN BEING STRONG...BUT TOO EARLY
TO JUMP ON THIS ENTIRELY. WILL KEEP THE USUAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED
IF/WHEN MODELS KEY IN ON THE CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK.

If this does form than the likelihood of what ever is east of Florida will be steered more to the northwest or north.

By Wed or later, this UL will arrive to late -- if it even develops at all...and it may be too weak if Ingrid? reaches CAT 3+ and has that outflow channel she will just go right through it....

[Brent]

Remains a TD at 5, NHC actually WEAKENS it at Day 5.

[gatorcane]

Yes but keeps the track unchanged...towards the Hebert box...

[bocadude86]

Frm NWS Miami

EXTENDED PERIOD (SUN-WED)...
PATTERN CHANGES SLIGHTLY AS ATLANTIC HIGH BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE
TO A STRONG TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A BUILDING HIGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES, WITH LITTLE
OVERALL EFFECTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY WHEN SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING A MID/UPPER LOW
CUTTING OFF OVER OR JUST EAST OF FLORIDA. THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER
LOW NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA IN SEPTEMBER USUALLY MEANS AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME EVEN BEING STRONG...BUT TOO EARLY
TO JUMP ON THIS ENTIRELY. WILL KEEP THE USUAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF NEEDED
IF/WHEN MODELS KEY IN ON THE CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK.

If this does form than the likelihood of what ever is east of Florida will be steered more to the northwest or north.

By Wed or later, this UL will arrive to late -- if it even develops at all...and it may be too weak if Ingrid? reaches CAT 3+ and has that outflow channel she will just go right through it....

actually if this were to approach florida tues wed would be the time frame i would think