Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[lamsalfl]

i'm going to sleep. no sense wasting time on this when it is in its infancy. when i wake up around lunch it could be better organized.

[bwhorton2007]

i don't mean rapide deepening just that all the ingredients in the "witches brew"seem to be coming together.

[lamsalfl]

wow the 8:45 frame that just came up! that blob near the center is bigger!

good night now

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't know what the NHC is looking at either. There is no doubt in my mind a LLC is forming SSW of Tampa. It's like they already had this TWO typed up last night. I don't want to bash NHC but if it walks like a duck... I think they will issue a STDS later this morning when someone looks at the radar/sat. JMHO

The thing looks very good right now. There is a LLC forming just off Naples florida. Heck it would not suprize me if Avlia ordered pizza and drinks for all the forecasters and just pressed the copy button.

[bwhorton2007]

The tvs signatures sure are ominous asi think we have a fairly quickly developing system and may welcome a named system soon.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Low over florida is elongated south to north in is focused over the central Part of Florida. But this area is becoming less organized, while the low pressure west of Naples is starting to develop. IF shear stays low and this moves over the loop current this could take off once it becomes organized, and warmer core.

I hope the recon gets in there today.

[opera ghost]

I'm usually all about backing up the NHC, but this time I'm puzzled. I just don't see the northern swirl being in any way dominant to the southern one.

Can someone explain how they're coming to that conclusion? I must be missing something.

[caneman]

disagree Matt. I think any new center will be around Venice to Ft. Myers. Pressure diwn 29.76 or 1007 millibar. Pressure is certainly low enough for TD but don't have the winds yet.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm usually all about backing up the NHC, but this time I'm puzzled. I just don't see the northern swirl being in any way dominant to the southern one.

Can someone explain how they're coming to that conclusion? I must be missing something.

Surface obs, southly winds on the east coast and northly on the western coast. I think its becoming more of a trough. While the LLC is forming west of Naples.

[Nimbus]

The buoy observations in the area west of naples are pretty clear.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42023

Shows a wind shift from NNW to SSW at the surface with pressure around 1008 MB.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

Further west showing 20 knot winds out of the north with surface pressure dropping at a steady pace.

Water vapor imagery shows the upper air pattern is beginning to moderate. The Upper low is slowly starting to fill so shear may diminish a little faster than some of yesterdays model runs predicted. A surface low can help fill an ULL fairly quickly if the convection creates enough lift. Still think this might possibly be Jerry by tommorrow night. Currently the circulation is elongated which will inhibit development so don't expect a TS today.

The LLC does not look like it is moving very fast, currently there is an anticyclone over Texas that doesn't seem to be in too much of a hurry to roll east. You can see a trough further west but I'm having trouble seeing a Louisiana landfall by Saturday.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

26.5-26.8/83.0 or so. This thing is coming together nicely this morning. When this sucker moves over the loop and "if" the shear is under 5-8 knots. This could get interest, I think it could move slowly to.

[xironman]

Radar spin does look pretty much west of Venice http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=tbw&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[Ixolib]

Still looks like they're not even comfortable with what to call it, as indicated in BOLD below:

ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS WEATHER DISTURBANCE.

[mobilebay]

I don't know what the NHC is looking at either. There is no doubt in my mind a LLC is forming SSW of Tampa. It's like they already had this TWO typed up last night. I don't want to bash NHC but if it walks like a duck... I think they will issue a STDS later this morning when someone looks at the radar/sat. JMHO

The thing looks very good right now. There is a LLC forming just off Naples florida. Heck it would not suprize me if Avlia ordered pizza and drinks for all the forecasters and just pressed the copy button.

Well the NWS Mobile is thinking what we are all thinking!

FORECASTERS ARE WATCHING SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BUOY 42022...LOCATED ABOUT 70
NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA BAY WAS DOWN TO 1007 MB WHICH
EXPERIENCED A DROP OF ROUGHLY A MILLIBAR PER HOUR SINCE 5Z
(MIDNIGHT) THIS MORNING. THE LATEST PRESSURE TENDENCY THOUGH HAS
BEEN STEADY. QUITE A BIT OF COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE LOCATED IN THIS
VICINITY OF THE EAST CENTRAL GULF...WHICH POSES SOME CONCERNS THAT
ADDITIONAL LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM CONVECTION WILL MODIFY THE DEEP
LAYER THERMAL PROFILE WHILE CONTINUING TO LOWER THE SURFACE
PRESSURE. THIS MEANS THINGS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A
TRANSITION FROM A DEEP COLD CORE LOW TO ONE BECOMING WARM CORE...
TROPICAL. THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER HAS SCHEDULED AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECON FLIGHT INTO THE SYSTEM TODAY TO INVESTIGATE FURTHER.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. /10

Thank you very much...

[caneman]

This should settle the cse. There it is West of Ft. Myers. scroll down and cick on longe range

http://www.baynews9.com/Doppler9000.html

[A1A]

Has there ever been a named storm develop from a ULL? I thought that just didn't happen?

[Lowpressure]

This should settle the cse. There it is West of Ft. Myers. scroll down and cick on longe range

http://www.baynews9.com/Doppler9000.html

Looks like a rather broad spin, but you are correct, not much doubt about it.

[SeaBrz_FL]

There are two different low areas under discussion. The one in this morning's TWO, that is over Central Florida, is the remains of the "spin" that was off the coast of Canaveral yesterday.

[skysummit]

Yea...they just as well stop mentioning that "low" over central Florida b/c surface obs no longer support that low.

[cycloneye]

The latest at 10:45 UTC