Tropical Storm Barry

[windstorm99]

NRL has 92L at 40 knots and 1004mb

[tallywx]

So in summary:

Recon. finds 52 knot winds (blowing from the NW).
Recon. finds a robust due west wind at 40 mph.
Recon. finds a spot of nearly calm winds at 23.9N, 85.8W.
Recon. finds a warm-core temp. profile.

If they don't upgrade, they'll have to contravene all those things for the sake of satellite presentation.

[Aric Dunn]

That was also the pass threw the Center........ vortex very soon.. also the strongest winds near the center... signs of a tropical system

[x-y-no]

No VDM yet, but here's the center:

Code: Select all

09: 18:58:00; 23.9°N 85.8°W; PA: 1001ft; D-Val: -325 ft; Wnd: WNW (288°) @ 10mph (Max: 13mph); T: 74F; D: ****; Radar Alt: 715ft
10: 18:58:30; 23.9°N 85.8°W; PA: 1001ft; D-Val: -328 ft; Wnd: WNW (285°) @ 6mph (Max: 7mph); T: 74F; D: ****; Radar Alt: 712ft
11: 18:59:00; 23.9°N 85.8°W; PA: 1004ft; D-Val: -328 ft; Wnd: S (187°) @ 2mph (Max: 3mph); T: 74F; D: ****; Radar Alt: 715ft
12: 18:59:30; 24°N 85.8°W; PA: 997ft; D-Val: -325 ft; Wnd: SE (132°) @ 6mph (Max: 7mph); T: 74F; D: ****; Radar Alt: 715ft
13: 19:00:00; 24°N 85.7°W; PA: 1001ft; D-Val: -322 ft; Wnd: SE (127°) @ 10mph (Max: 12mph); T: 74F; D: ****; Radar Alt: 719ft
14: 19:00:30; 24°N 85.7°W; PA: 1001ft; D-Val: -318 ft; Wnd: ESE (117°) @ 14mph (Max: 15mph); T: 74F; D: ****; Radar Alt: 725ft


[WmE]

So in summary:

Recon. finds 52 knot winds (blowing from the NW).
Recon. finds a robust due west wind at 40 mph.
Recon. finds a spot of nearly calm winds at 23.9N, 85.8W.
Recon. finds a warm-core temp. profile.

If they don't upgrade, they'll have to contravene all those things for the sake of satellite presentation.

Yep, but I doubt that they'll use the Dvorak estimates, given that the last TWO mentioned that only a slight increase of organization would lead to the formation of a (S)TC.

[drezee]

Even at 0.65 reduction, 52 knots is 40 mph!

[Aric Dunn]

No VDM yet, but here's the center:

Code: Select all

09: 18:58:00; 23.9°N 85.8°W; PA: 1001ft; D-Val: -325 ft; Wnd: WNW (288°) @ 10mph (Max: 13mph); T: 74F; D: ****; Radar Alt: 715ft
10: 18:58:30; 23.9°N 85.8°W; PA: 1001ft; D-Val: -328 ft; Wnd: WNW (285°) @ 6mph (Max: 7mph); T: 74F; D: ****; Radar Alt: 712ft
11: 18:59:00; 23.9°N 85.8°W; PA: 1004ft; D-Val: -328 ft; Wnd: S (187°) @ 2mph (Max: 3mph); T: 74F; D: ****; Radar Alt: 715ft
12: 18:59:30; 24°N 85.8°W; PA: 997ft; D-Val: -325 ft; Wnd: SE (132°) @ 6mph (Max: 7mph); T: 74F; D: ****; Radar Alt: 715ft
13: 19:00:00; 24°N 85.7°W; PA: 1001ft; D-Val: -322 ft; Wnd: SE (127°) @ 10mph (Max: 12mph); T: 74F; D: ****; Radar Alt: 719ft
14: 19:00:30; 24°N 85.7°W; PA: 1001ft; D-Val: -318 ft; Wnd: ESE (117°) @ 14mph (Max: 15mph); T: 74F; D: ****; Radar Alt: 725ft


most revealing .... the center .. temp... 74 ... which is higher than the surroundings... its a Tropical system.. unless im missing something

[djones65]

The 52-kt wind report was very near the exact location of the SHIP report at 1800 UTC of 49.9 knot winds from the east and 1005 mb.
Therefore, even without much convection to "mix" the winds to the surface, there may be a pretty good correlation of flight level to surface winds.

[txwatcher91]

No VDM yet, but here's the center:

Code: Select all

09: 18:58:00; 23.9°N 85.8°W; PA: 1001ft; D-Val: -325 ft; Wnd: WNW (288°) @ 10mph (Max: 13mph); T: 74F; D: ****; Radar Alt: 715ft
10: 18:58:30; 23.9°N 85.8°W; PA: 1001ft; D-Val: -328 ft; Wnd: WNW (285°) @ 6mph (Max: 7mph); T: 74F; D: ****; Radar Alt: 712ft
11: 18:59:00; 23.9°N 85.8°W; PA: 1004ft; D-Val: -328 ft; Wnd: S (187°) @ 2mph (Max: 3mph); T: 74F; D: ****; Radar Alt: 715ft
12: 18:59:30; 24°N 85.8°W; PA: 997ft; D-Val: -325 ft; Wnd: SE (132°) @ 6mph (Max: 7mph); T: 74F; D: ****; Radar Alt: 715ft
13: 19:00:00; 24°N 85.7°W; PA: 1001ft; D-Val: -322 ft; Wnd: SE (127°) @ 10mph (Max: 12mph); T: 74F; D: ****; Radar Alt: 719ft
14: 19:00:30; 24°N 85.7°W; PA: 1001ft; D-Val: -318 ft; Wnd: ESE (117°) @ 14mph (Max: 15mph); T: 74F; D: ****; Radar Alt: 725ft


most revealing .... the center .. temp... 74 ... which is higher than the surroundings... its a Tropical system.. unless im missing something

Actually, 75 was the max temperature.

[Aric Dunn]

vortex

Vortex Data Message
Storm Name: INVEST (BBL)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF307
Observation Number: 11
Time: 18:58:40Z
Latitude: 23.9°N
Longitude: 85.8°W
#NAME?
Minimum height at NA mb NA m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: 52 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max surface wind: 13 mi SW (222°)
Maximum flight level wind: NNW (329°) @ 60 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 13 mi SW (221°)
Sea level pressure: EXTRAP 1000 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 72°F at 1001 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 75°F at 1001 feet
#VALUE!
Eye character: NA
Eye shape: NA
Eye diameter: NA
#VALUE!
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 3 nm
MAX FL WIND 52 KT SW QUAD 18:55:10 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

[Aric Dunn]

pressure 1000 mb

Vortex Data Message
Storm Name: INVEST (BBL)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF307
Observation Number: 11
Time: 18:58:40Z
Latitude: 23.9°N
Longitude: 85.8°W
#NAME?
Minimum height at NA mb NA m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: 52 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max surface wind: 13 mi SW (222°)
Maximum flight level wind: NNW (329°) @ 60 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 13 mi SW (221°)
Sea level pressure: EXTRAP 1000 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 72°F at 1001 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 75°F at 1001 feet
#VALUE!
Eye character: NA
Eye shape: NA
Eye diameter: NA
#VALUE!
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 3 nm
MAX FL WIND 52 KT SW QUAD 18:55:10 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

[Aric Dunn]

pressure 1000 mb

Vortex Data Message
Storm Name: INVEST (BBL)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF307
Observation Number: 11
Time: 18:58:40Z
Latitude: 23.9°N
Longitude: 85.8°W
#NAME?
Minimum height at NA mb NA m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: 52 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max surface wind: 13 mi SW (222°)
Maximum flight level wind: NNW (329°) @ 60 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 13 mi SW (221°)
Sea level pressure: EXTRAP 1000 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 72°F at 1001 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 75°F at 1001 feet
#VALUE!
Eye character: NA
Eye shape: NA
Eye diameter: NA
#VALUE!
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 3 nm
MAX FL WIND 52 KT SW QUAD 18:55:10 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

you notice the mention of inside and outside temps... 72 outside and 75 inside.. its a tropical storm !!!!

[artist]

down to 1000mb

[cycloneye]

That 52kt wind was in the SW quad,not the strongest.

[DESTRUCTION5]

down to 1000mb

Jesus i can't keep up

[CrazyC83]

Definitely a tropical storm, probably 50 mph.

It might have been a tropical storm since last night without knowing and we might have had 2 storms before the gun fired...

[Aric Dunn]

[quote="cycloneye"]That 52kt wind was in the SW quad,not the strongest.[/quo]
huh

[MiamiensisWx]

NRL says 2L.NONAME. We have Barry!

Link

[tracyswfla]

NRL says 2L.NONAME. We have Barry!

Link

Holy! Does recon give a movement direction (I am sure they do) they will put this data into the next model runs..

[CrazyC83]

NONAME? A tropical depression or waiting for the call?