Invest 98L,Central Atlantic

[Weatherfreak000]

We are just getting started with mid-season.

I was referring to the nicely developing systems out there currently, the multitude of invests supports this.

Coupled with a La Nina, I just can't see why we won't be seeing 6-8 named storms after 98L this year.

The possibility definitely seems valid.

[bvigal]

ok, all the talk here recently about the homepage being updated, where are the models and images for 98L... just asking...

3day week_end on the Beach LOL

You doin' invests, you got a tiger by the tail now, Chad!! ...plan to catch your next good night's sleep in October! LOL, hang in!

[windstorm99]

98L is feeling about 20kts of windshear right now which might be holding it back a tad.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

If 98L does decide to chug through the Caribbean, would there possibly
be a trough or should the high keep it south? It's too early
to tell, but does anyone have any ideas about this?

[canegrl04]

Models at this point aren't showing to much of a northward trend to them...Mostly want to bring into guess what the caribbean once again. Its somewhat rare for a system at this latitude to make it in the caribbean.

,the models are not going to stay where they are now.We may see a more northward trend in the next 48 hours.If not,this is going to be another Central America event

[windstorm99]

The way the pattern has been the past couple of weeks it could very well be another central america problem.

[Buck]

Will how fast this intensifies affect this one's path very much? That's a key factor with some storms whereas some storms are gonna go where they go reguardless of how strong they are.

[cycloneye]

98L is feeling about 20kts of windshear right now which might be holding it back a tad.

You might want to put the red symbol a little bit to the left.



NRL Visible pic

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The way the pattern has been the past couple of weeks it could very well be another central america problem.

That would be just horrible for them. It seems mother
nature Devastates an area each year
2004- Florida
2005- central gulf coast/west gulf coast
2007- Central America (so far)- Category 5 landfall

[windstorm99]

Luis that was not me that symbol was put by CIMSS website....

[cycloneye]

Luis that was not me that symbol was put by CIMSS website....

Oh ok.Well they put it wrong.

[RL3AO]

The way the pattern has been the past couple of weeks it could very well be another central america problem.

That would be just horrible for them. It seems mother
nature Devastates an area each year
2004- Florida
2005- central gulf coast/west gulf coast
2007- Central America (so far)- Category 5 landfall

Same thing in the WPac. The Philippines last year and Japan in 2005.

[MiamiensisWx]

There's a definite low-level circulation. It's partially exposed and elongated, but it has become better defined over the past few hours:

Latest GOES visible shot

Although it is still early, I think it should be monitored (more than Felix) as a possible threat to the United States. Personally, I think this system could develop when it approaches the Caribbean, and it could (emphasis added) find a weakness in the H7 (low to mid-level) environment. Some model guidance leaves a slight weakness off the Southeast coast at ~72 hours, and this system's fast forward motion would bring it closer to the islands within four days. Additionally, the "cusp" is well defined - it is really fighting the easterly shear.

That would be just horrible for them. It seems mother
nature Devastates an area each year
2004- Florida
2005- central gulf coast/west gulf coast
2007- Central America (so far)- Category 5 landfall

Don't forget SC and NC, in addition to the Caribbean. They were hit hard in 2004: look at Ivan, Gaston, Charley, and Jeanne. That final storm killed more than 3,000 in Haiti. Additionally, we (FL) were hit multiple times in 2005 (Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma). Ophelia affected the Carolinas in 2005. Essentially every coastal region was affected in two seasons.

[tolakram]

The convection is out in front of the center and the shear is 20 from the east, so doesn't that make the net shear < 10?

[HURAKAN]

By tomorrow's DMAX 98L should be in a lighter environment and we could see it get very close to TD status.

[canegrl04]

Out of all those models depicted,the GFDL and NHC have more reliability than the others.They are showing a path that would eventually take it into the GOM

[hial2]

Out of all those models depicted,the GFDL and NHC have more reliability than the others.They are showing a path that would eventually take it into the GOM

Considering that its just an invest, all the models are basically worthless especially 1 week + out..

[Brent]

5:30pm TWO:

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[HURAKAN]

Gabrielle is knocking on the door.

[RL3AO]