Tropical Depression INGRID: Global & BAM Models

[Blown Away]

What's the long term after 5 day thinking for 91L/Humberto? Jeff Masters thinking possible EC threat, so I assume the high must build back pushing 91L/Humberto W after it makes the NW jog near the Islands.

I'm not saying this will happen. Look at the track of the 1947 South Florida Hurricane which coincidentally was traversing the Atlantic about now. Point is that even if this moves NE of the islands it can easily bend back west even in mid or late September.

That would be incredible if that happens, what a disaster that would be if a Cat 4/5 plows into Boca/WPB. I just don't even want to think about it. Fortunately the probability is very low. I'm thinking this is a classic recurve fish storm. 91L predicted track very similar to the 1947 track so far.

[gatorcane]

Blown_away just wondering why you think a fish storm? It is way too early to say for sure.....

perhaps if you mean for the islands...yes (although I'm not so sure)...but the models are all over the place in the extended outlook...

Do you have model support?

[windstorm99]

Pretty good model agreement as of now on this approaching the northern islands.

[ronjon]

Well all I can add is that the latest 12Z GFS builds a huge dome of high pressure in the western Atlantic and pushes 91L from about 20N-60W into the FL peninsula. The GFS loses the low pressure system with time but the outcome if this develops would be the same - toward the FL peninsula. Now, this huge high is the first I've seen in the GFS runs of late (previous runs have shown some type of progressive east coast trough) so I take it with a huge grain of salt until the GFS model shows some consistency.

[KWT]

About the same agreement as there was when Dean was in the region for that system to head towards the far northern Leeward isles.
note the way they start to bend back by about 72hrs though, signs that the weakness wil lbe weakening by that point and the models have been showing a fairly relativly strong high to take shape and send the system westward, tohugh another weakness may show up around 75W IMO.

[windstorm99]

About the same agreement as there was when Dean was in the region for that system to head towards the far northern Leeward isles.
note the way they start to bend back by about 72hrs though, signs that the weakness wil lbe weakening by that point.

As luis stated how far north will it get before it banks to the west is key.

[cycloneye]

553
WHXX04 KWBC 111723
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 11

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.1 42.1 295./ 8.9
6 11.3 42.6 290./ 5.7
12 11.4 43.1 293./ 4.8
18 11.9 43.6 310./ 6.3
24 12.7 44.2 322./10.1
30 12.9 45.2 285./10.0
36 13.3 45.8 300./ 6.6
42 13.8 46.6 299./ 9.8
48 13.9 47.5 281./ 8.4
54 14.3 48.0 306./ 6.3
60 14.8 48.4 318./ 6.0
66 15.2 49.1 304./ 7.9
72 15.6 49.7 305./ 6.6
78 16.1 50.1 322./ 6.9
84 16.6 50.7 310./ 7.4
90 17.0 51.4 297./ 8.0
96 17.3 52.0 297./ 6.6
102 17.7 52.6 305./ 7.2
108 17.9 53.1 284./ 5.0
114 18.1 53.8 292./ 6.8
120 18.5 54.3 302./ 6.1
126 18.6 55.0 279./ 6.3

12z GFDL

[windstorm99]

[Zardoz]

Deleted.

Wrong thread...

[windstorm99]

12z GFDL now has increased its intensity forecast of 91L into a hurricane.

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF Animation



12z HWRF ends at 110kts.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I think our biggest problem here is there are 2 systems in same general area vieing for supremecy...

[Derek Ortt]

the biggest problem has eben a lack of a convective burst near the center to focus the inflow, until this afternoon

as for HWRF... the weakness in the high in 5 days may be cricual for determining the eventual path of this storm. Now, we are having 2 AMS events next week... so that almost guarantees a hurricane in miami if the 2005 season and us trying to hold events in the hurricane season is any indication

[windstorm99]

wow that HWRF animation going westbound is a scary thing to see for sure.

[Zardoz]

I think our biggest problem here is there are 2 systems in same general area vieing for supremecy...

Yes, look at what's going on at 12N 32W:

Central Atlantic

What is that doing to 91L?

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I think our biggest problem here is there are 2 systems in same general area vieing for supremecy...

Yes, look at what's going on at 12N 32W:

Central Atlantic

What is that doing to 91L?

There's 700 miles right now between the systems and the one at 32w doesn't even have a LLC so I would say it is doing nothing to 91L

[skysummit]

Just a quick drawing of what the 12z HWRF is showing....not to scale

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 111910
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1910 UTC TUE SEP 11 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912007) 20070911 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070911 1800 070912 0600 070912 1800 070913 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.9N 41.6W 12.5N 42.9W 13.2N 44.2W 13.7N 45.4W
BAMD 11.9N 41.6W 12.4N 43.1W 12.9N 44.5W 13.4N 45.8W
BAMM 11.9N 41.6W 12.4N 43.0W 12.9N 44.4W 13.4N 45.7W
LBAR 11.9N 41.6W 12.4N 43.4W 13.0N 45.4W 13.7N 47.5W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS 51KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070913 1800 070914 1800 070915 1800 070916 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.4N 46.5W 15.7N 48.5W 17.2N 51.0W 18.6N 53.9W
BAMD 13.8N 46.9W 15.0N 48.5W 16.5N 50.1W 18.3N 51.4W
BAMM 14.0N 46.7W 15.1N 48.4W 16.6N 50.5W 18.0N 52.7W
LBAR 14.4N 49.4W 16.0N 53.5W 18.0N 57.2W 19.9N 60.0W
SHIP 59KTS 71KTS 73KTS 69KTS
DSHP 59KTS 71KTS 73KTS 69KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.9N LONCUR = 41.6W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 40.4W DIRM12 = 326DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 9.9N LONM24 = 38.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Moving 305 degrees? The BAMS are away from Islands.

[windstorm99]

More in agreement?

[Derek Ortt]

the NCEP model that shall not be named based guidance is indicating significant westerly shear in 4 days, which is the cause of the weakening in the guidance and possibly the turn to the west