INVEST 97L: Near Puerto Rico :Discussions & Images

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

[MiamiensisWx]

As an aside, models have been repeatedly underestimating W components during the early stages of several tropical cyclones this year. They have not handled the retrogression of upper lows nicely in some cases. Personally, I do not expect 97L to move N of the Leewards and PR, especially when you note the building Caribbean/W Atlantic mid-level ridge. 97L could experience more interaction with Hispaniola, but that factor could be negated if the progged conducive environment verifies as expected in the models and current data. The models may not "latch on" to the ultimate W path through the Caribbean until the system moves closer to the Greater Antilles. The Euro's movement toward the Bahamas seems unlikely in the progged 500 mbar pattern.

[Dynamic]

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Invest 97L - 3 Days Cone

['CaneFreak]

shift that 200 to 300 miles further south and you will be dead on

[ROCK]

shift that 200 to 300 miles further south and you will be dead on

yeah, needs to put a disclaimer on it as well......

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Upper level Anticyclone has formed over this system. Based on quickscat we have a sharp tropical wave; which just needs to form a westly wind. The more convection forms the sharper the wave will become, intill it forms a west wind. I would give this a 60-70 percent of becoming a tropical cyclone.

[vegastar]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2007

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED
ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED OVERNIGHT WITHIN THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT STILL
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO BRING SQUALLY WEATHER TO PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY...AND THIS WEATHER COULD SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD
INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON TUESDAY. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECASTER KNABB

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 241032
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 58W OR ABOUT 85 NM
E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. A SFC LOW WILL LIKELY BE
ADDED TO THE WAVE AXIS ON THE 24/1200 UTC MAP...WITH A CLOSED
CYCLONIC SWIRL NOW APPARENT JUST SE OR BARBADOS VIA SHORTWAVE IR
IMAGERY. WINDS AT GRANTLEY ADAMS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN SE
BARBADOS ALSO RECENTLY BACKED TO THE NW WITH THE APPROACH OF
THIS LOW. THIS WAVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED
TSTM ACTIVITY FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 52W-61W. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH LATER
TODAY...BRINGING SQUALLY WEATHER TO THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY TO
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
DECREASED OVERNIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10-15 KT.
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
$$
MW
We must continue to monitor closely this system...

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 241022
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
622 AM AST MON SEP 24 2007



LOOKING AHEAD...A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WAS
LOCATED ALONG 58.5 WEST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL MOVE WEST
NORTHWEST AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY...AND THEN
MOVE MORE NORTHWEST TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALL LOCAL INTERESTS ARE URGED TO KEEP
ABREAST OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE AS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY BRIEF DRYING LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INDICATED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

Hummm....Puerto Rico seems very confident in a high potential for this feature and assuming that we should be very alert in the islands for any changes
"ALL LOCAL INTERESTS ARE URGED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE AS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS"...don't like that words..it reminds me those type of barbadian system as Huc mentionned it nicely yesterday . In a nustshell, a barely potential exists for something...in spite of the fact that the convection has lessen this morning...but it can pop at any time soon...very very moist air ahead and in the vicinity of the system...keep watching it car residents!

[HURAKAN]

Convection is beginning to pop.

[Nimbus]

Its coming into the Caribbean a little further south than the models were showing. Good news for PR, Bad news for Gulf coast.

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:

[Gustywind]

Convection is beginning to pop.

Absolutely Hurakan tkanks for the sat pic ...slight popping trend during an hour can be observed ...could be interresting in the next couple of hours!
..Just a a funny scoop...seems that every Monday is special for the islands and especially in Guadeloupe...since 2 weeks every Monday we experience the effets of strongs waves or residual thunderstorms close lool....bringing big showers and huge thunderstorms or nice convective activity added with yellow alerts folkssss Will it be the third time of these nasty assaults this Monday?!folks! that's the 1000$ challenge :cheesy:
...we will see but the Monday is always special and amazing in terms of electric activity, thunderstorms, showers...for us! Hope nothing won't happen this third time!!!

[cycloneye]

[Gustywind]

24/0645 UTC 11.1N 57.4W TOO WEAK 97L
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Latest from NRL Site
Interresting pressure down to 1008 hpa compared to ysterday 1009 hpa...
1030 UTC 12,1 N 58,5w 25 Kts 1008 hpa

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... rovap/dmsp

[boca]

The way they drew in circle over the Leeward Islands tends me to believe this is heading towards PR. I have a feeling this will be a depression later today.

[Blown Away]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

N shift to models through Hispanola. The GFDL keeps 97L a hurricane even after passing over Hispanola.

[boca]

The 06zGFS has 97L heading to Florida then going northward. I'm more concerned about 97L than I was Ingrid when I thought it was coming in this direction. I think this might be more of a threat since the high pressure will be retrating eastward as this system is SE of us pushing it NW.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

The NAM has 97L getting into the Central Bahamas at this point.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:

[boca]

Look at the wind directopn in Barbados. In the last 3 hours the winds backed fron NE to North, all though the barametric pressure is rising.
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html