OLGA'S remnants : Discussions & Images

[cycloneye]

10/1115 UTC 18.2N 61.6W T1.5/1.5 94L -- Atlantic Ocean

[HURAKAN]

LOOP

Rain begins to move over the northeastern of the Caribbean.

[RL3AO]

Another thing in play is that warnings may be needed with the first advisory. Could cause the NHC to be a little less strict.

[cycloneye]

Another thing in play is that warnings may be needed with the first advisory. Could cause the NHC to be a little less strict.

Possible as already there are gale warnings for the coastal waters.

[Evil Jeremy]

We are in December, so shouldn't a front or through turn this NE eventually?

[tgenius]

Jeremy I'd tend to agree with you, but from what I was hearing on the news last night, the high pressure is situated pretty strongly above 94L... not to mention this sucker is crusing along at a pretty fast clip (15mph or so)

If it brings rain.. then it would not get a complaint out of me.

[GCANE]

I think this will end up being extra-tropical. It does have impressive LL Convergence and UL Divergence is not far removed. Vortex signature is impressive. Buoy 41043 is showing a drop in mslp and increase in wind speed.

But; UL winds are not anti-cyclonic and there is no surface-low on QuikSCAT. If it starts to get under the UL High that is in the extreme west Caribbean, it may get torn apart from shear.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON DEC 10 2007

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 NM EAST OF PUERTO RICO REMAINS
FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED. AS OF 0600 UTC...A 1010 MB SFC LOW IS
ANALYZED NEAR 19N60W. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 15 KT
AND IS PRODUCING HEAVY SQUALLS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE
NORTH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE COULD STILL FORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY SQUALLS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 20 MPH. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.. CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY
INCREASED EARLY THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 58W-62W. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRES N OF AREA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE
WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC JUST N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 19N TO
23N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT IN THIS
AREA. THE GFS COMPUTER MODEL HAS MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM
SPREADING OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AS WELL AS OVER THE UK/US
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...PARTICULARLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINOUS AREA.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1251 UTC MON DEC 10 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942007) 20071210 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071210 1200 071211 0000 071211 1200 071212 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.2N 61.9W 18.2N 65.2W 18.0N 68.6W 18.0N 72.1W
BAMD 18.2N 61.9W 19.0N 63.2W 19.7N 64.5W 20.1N 65.8W
BAMM 18.2N 61.9W 18.5N 64.2W 18.5N 66.6W 18.4N 69.4W
LBAR 18.2N 61.9W 18.6N 63.7W 19.0N 65.1W 19.0N 66.4W
SHIP 30KTS 30KTS 26KTS 21KTS
DSHP 30KTS 30KTS 26KTS 22KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071212 1200 071213 1200 071214 1200 071215 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.6N 75.9W 16.8N 82.4W 15.4N 86.6W 13.1N 91.0W
BAMD 20.4N 67.4W 20.7N 71.0W 20.6N 74.3W 20.3N 75.9W
BAMM 18.2N 72.2W 18.3N 77.4W 17.9N 81.9W 16.7N 86.0W
LBAR 18.9N 67.9W 18.4N 71.5W 17.6N 75.3W 16.3N 78.4W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.2N LONCUR = 61.9W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 19.0N LONM12 = 59.0W DIRM12 = 257DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 19.2N LONM24 = 56.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


A tad slower at the 12:00 UTC run.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

Antigua Observations

It will be important to see if west winds are found in the observations from the islands to see then if a closed circulation is forming or not.So far SSW winds are found in Antigua.Lets see later in the day,what the surface observations show.

[HURAKAN]

The tropics not looking too bad for December!!!

[Fego]

Visible Image from NRL



You can see clearly the circulation here just northnorthwest of Barbuda.

Luis, is this (yellow circle) the area you are talking about?

[cycloneye]

Visible Image from NRL



You can see clearly the circulation here just northnorthwest of Barbuda.

Luis, is this (yellow circle) the area you are talking about?

A little to the left of that point.

[cycloneye]

You can see it clearly in this closeup visible image just East of the island of St Marteen.

[wxman57]

Here's a 13Z surface plot and satellite. The satellite image isn't the highest quality (still having GOES issues) but there is some evidence of a very weak LLC near 18.3N/61.8W. Note that winds around this little swirl are only 5-15 kts. All stronger winds are in the squalls to the north. As it is now, it certainly does not qualify for upgrading to a depression, tropical or subtropical. Convection remains very disorganized, and wind shear appears to increase with time. This is evident in the latest DSHP guidance tha shows steady weakening. Looks like just a rain event for the DR. Most of the heavier squalls should pass north of PR.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Here's a 13Z surface plot and satellite. The satellite image isn't the highest quality (still having GOES issues) but there is some evidence of a very weak LLC near 18.3N/61.8W. Note that winds around this little swirl are only 5-15 kts. All stronger winds are in the squalls to the north. As it is now, it certainly does not qualify for upgrading to a depression, tropical or subtropical. Convection remains very disorganized, and wind shear appears to increase with time. This is evident in the latest DSHP guidance tha shows steady weakening. Looks like just a rain event for the DR. Most of the heavier squalls should pass north of PR.

I'd be disappointed, just a little, if the name 'Noel' hadn't already been used.


This is like the Senior Bowl, or the Pro-Bowl, a post season event that doesn't mean much.

Back to the Kansas City mega ice-storm disaster...

[HURAKAN]

A clear image of the little LLC.

LOOP Clearly shows the rotation of the LLC.

[Evil Jeremy]

Convection is starting to build around the center, which is getting better organized. Also, if what all of the pro mets here say is true, just like Noel a month ago, the LCC should move towards the convection, not the other way around. Even looking at this loop it looks like 94L is jogging WNW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[boca]

If their is a projected cold front to enter the picture for Florida wouldn't the SW flow in front direct 94L up towards Florida to give us the rain we need.The high is forecast to move east and be pushed south which I think would turn 94L more northwesterly rather than WSW into Central America like wxman57 elluded too.