Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[Air Force Met]

I think I see what they are talking about - look at the shortwave IR.

Don't need SWIR. The sfc obs show the low is off the SW coast. This is how the NHC avoids eating crow: They just write fiction and will gradually move the low to where it really is.

[Air Force Met]

This should settle the cse. There it is West of Ft. Myers. scroll down and cick on longe range

http://www.baynews9.com/Doppler9000.html

Do you realize how high up you are looking that far from the radar? It isn't the sfc...so don't use it to locate a sfc feature...especially one as ill defined as this one.

Considering this is such a broad low...Ft Myers - Naples...it doesn't really matter...but the SFC OBS support a center closer to Naples...that is where the pressure is lower and winds are calm...

One thing we do know...it isn't over north central Florida. That isn't the dominant center. Its a non-player we expected it to be.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



First visible coming soon.

[Air Force Met]

There are two different low areas under discussion. The one in this morning's TWO, that is over Central Florida, is the remains of the "spin" that was off the coast of Canaveral yesterday.

Remains is right...its a trof. And what's worse is THAT low isn't even over central Florida. IT moved up the east coast towards JAX. You can follow it as it starts to shear out on the SW IR and in the SFC OBS.

Not even anywhere close to CNTL Florida.

[hurricanetrack]

So GFDL puts this at 28.0 and 81.7 now. Look at the satellite image above. Is that where you all think the center of this really is?

If it is, then so be it, this will be a short lived and weak system.

If it is not and a new low level center really is developing west of Collier County, then none of the models as of late have the right initial input.

Thoughts?

[skysummit]

There are two different low areas under discussion. The one in this morning's TWO, that is over Central Florida, is the remains of the "spin" that was off the coast of Canaveral yesterday.

Remains is right...its a trof. And what's worse is THAT low isn't even over central Florida. IT moved up the east coast towards JAX. You can follow it as it starts to shear out on the SW IR and in the SFC OBS.

Not even anywhere close to CNTL Florida.

Phew! Thanks AFM. I've been reading all the discos regarding this low and just could not find it. I thought I was losing it.

[Extremeweatherguy]

when will they finally stop initializing the models off that central FL low? It seems to make no sense running the models off the wrong area since the track is sure to be different if the models were initialized near the SW Florida low.

[TampaFl]

I'm usually all about backing up the NHC, but this time I'm puzzled. I just don't see the northern swirl being in any way dominant to the southern one.

Can someone explain how they're coming to that conclusion? I must be missing something.

Surface obs, southly winds on the east coast and northly on the western coast. I think its becoming more of a trough. While the LLC is forming west of Naples.

Map courtesy Crown Weather:

[skysummit]

OMG....are they seriously still calling that a low? They must just be putting that L there to save there butts because there is no low there. If there was, why is there an east wind just to the south of that L?

[hurricanetrack]

Well, it goes without saying that if that low well west of Naples gets established and takes over, then we have a whole new set of issues to deal with. It is going to be simply spectacular when recon gets out there later today. I cannot wait to see what they find. If that low reigns supreme, then things could really be quite interesting b/c none of the latest intensity models would have the correct initial input as far as position of the LLC.

[A1A]

There are two different low areas under discussion. The one in this morning's TWO, that is over Central Florida, is the remains of the "spin" that was off the coast of Canaveral yesterday.

Remains is right...its a trof. And what's worse is THAT low isn't even over central Florida. IT moved up the east coast towards JAX. You can follow it as it starts to shear out on the SW IR and in the SFC OBS.

Not even anywhere close to CNTL Florida.

Can you explain ALL 3 L's here? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[skysummit]

Well, it goes without saying that if that low well west of Naples gets established and takes over, then we have a whole new set of issues to deal with. It is going to be simply spectacular when recon gets out there later today. I cannot wait to see what they find. If that low reigns supreme, then things could really be quite interesting b/c none of the latest intensity models would have the correct initial input as far as position of the LLC.

Boooyahhh....excellent point Even the GFDL is wrong right now. Heck, the SHIPS is no where even close.

[AJC3]

<snip>

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I was wrong last night thinking the east LLC would take over.

Winds have veered out of the south along the west coast
and the clouds are moving rapidly south to north-

the Gulf Low has clearly taken over.

[fox13weather]

I was wrong last night thinking the east LLC would take over.

Winds have veered out of the south along the west coast
and the clouds are moving rapidly south to north-

the Gulf Low has clearly taken over.

you need to watch at 10pm We were all over it!

[Air Force Met]

Map courtesy Crown Weather:

This map actually shows what I was describing perfectly...its just a little later in the evolution. The have the weak low of cntl FL, the weak low off the NE FL coast that is all part of a trof. This was the bigger low yesterday. It sheared out and split last night. A piece went west and a piece went NW off the coast...but that piece last night kept the lowest pressure of the two.

But...the point remains neither of these two lows is the main feature...it is off the SW coast of Florida...which most first year met students would have said was going to happen. Its no genius forecasting...and I am still scratching by head as to why the NHC is doing what they are doing...and how they will dig themselves out. Option 1: The gradual approach (the bigger lie of it moved there) or 2) The relocation approach (the lesser lie that it just now relocated).

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I was wrong last night thinking the east LLC would take over.

Winds have veered out of the south along the west coast
and the clouds are moving rapidly south to north-

the Gulf Low has clearly taken over.

you need to watch at 10pm We were all over it!

I do remember you saying around 5 PM tv update that the rotation over
the gulf would take over, but I was so confused because I was
reading a ton of different things on weather forums...

But I do love fox 13

[Air Force Met]

Ok...I'm not going to accuse you of writing a fictional piece, however I'm sitting here looking at the surface METAR and mesonet observations since 00Z last evening, and there's pretty clear evidence in the SLP and wind observations that the weak low drifted inland to around the Orlando-Leesburg area of central Florida as it broadened out.

Makes little difference as it turns out. The weak low level vortex didn't truly survive it's trek, and, similar to the center elongation/transfer of energy (or whatever one chooses to call it) that we saw WED from offshore SE FL to offshore central FL, the pressure falls/convective development/low formation are once again following the strongest UL divergence/upward vertical motion.

Go back and look at the SWIR and the offshore data last night. You will see it start to shear out and split. Look at the data from 4Z. The low is off the coast and over land. Its splitting.

And my point then and now was it was obvious what was happening to this low: IT was shearing out and the energy was moving west and NW (actually NNW). It looked like an elongated trof rotating around a larger low.

[ronjon]

I don't know what all the fuss is about concerning the central FL low vs the SW FL low. It has been clear from several days ago from all of the model runs that the eastern GOM low would become the dominant player. Yes, I know the BAMs are run off an incorrect low position, but all of the global models have correctly keyed in on the development of the eastern GOM circulation. From what I can see, the GFS model has not wavered in its last 4-5 runs in creating this low and moving it to NOLA. What will be interesting today is the amount of tropical conversion we see today. I don't expect much movement over the next 12-24 hrs so let's see if it will acquire tropical characteristics in the mean time.