TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[destruction92]

shift the NOGAPS about 2.5 derees to the west as its initialzation is well too far east

Wow! Derek, look at what Don Sutherland has suggested...quite different from what you have forecasted...he does not see TD8 peaking to hurricane intensity and believes that TD8 will be a FISH.

"At this time, given the historic data and the timing of a more favorable landfalling pattern, I lean toward the idea that TD 8 will likely recurve and avoid U.S. landfall. It could make landfall in eastern Canada e.g., Newfoundland. As far as its maximum strength is concerned, I believe TD 8 will probably peak as a tropical storm with some chance at growing into a Category 1 hurricane."-Don Sutherland

Comments?

[MiamiensisWx]

Wow! Derek, look at what MWatkins has suggested...quite different from what you have forecasted...he does not see TD8 peaking to hurricane intensity and believes that TD8 will be a FISH.

"At this time, given the historic data and the timing of a more favorable landfalling pattern, I lean toward the idea that TD 8 will likely recurve and avoid U.S. landfall. It could make landfall in eastern Canada e.g., Newfoundland. As far as its maximum strength is concerned, I believe TD 8 will probably peak as a tropical storm with some chance at growing into a Category 1 hurricane."-MWatkins

Comments?

Mike never made that statement. That was donsutherland1:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=29&t=97931

[x-y-no]

shift the NOGAPS about 2.5 derees to the west as its initialzation is well too far east

Wow! Derek, look at what MWatkins has suggested...quite different from what you have forecasted...he does not see TD8 peaking to hurricane intensity and believes that TD8 will be a FISH.

"At this time, given the historic data and the timing of a more favorable landfalling pattern, I lean toward the idea that TD 8 will likely recurve and avoid U.S. landfall. It could make landfall in eastern Canada e.g., Newfoundland. As far as its maximum strength is concerned, I believe TD 8 will probably peak as a tropical storm with some chance at growing into a Category 1 hurricane."-MWatkins

Comments?

Huh?

Mike didn't write that. That was Don Sutherland.

[mattpetre]

IMO, TD8 is going to wind up being a Pensacola storm... just pure speculation at this point though, obviously.

[hial2]

IMO, TD8 is going to wind up being a Pensacola storm... just pure speculation at this point though, obviously.

Pensacola? Florida panhandle? Can you explain this scenario? Thanks

[destruction92]

shift the NOGAPS about 2.5 derees to the west as its initialzation is well too far east

Wow! Derek, look at what MWatkins has suggested...quite different from what you have forecasted...he does not see TD8 peaking to hurricane intensity and believes that TD8 will be a FISH.

"At this time, given the historic data and the timing of a more favorable landfalling pattern, I lean toward the idea that TD 8 will likely recurve and avoid U.S. landfall. It could make landfall in eastern Canada e.g., Newfoundland. As far as its maximum strength is concerned, I believe TD 8 will probably peak as a tropical storm with some chance at growing into a Category 1 hurricane."-MWatkins

Comments?

Huh?

Mike didn't write that. That was Don Sutherland.

My bad! I corrected the issue. Anyways, what are your thoughts on this disagreement? I would like some feedback from other ST2K'ers as I am curious...Is Don Sutherland a pro-met? His avatar says "Storm2k Analyst" so if he is a pro-met or not...

[perk]

Wow! Derek, look at what MWatkins has suggested...quite different from what you have forecasted...he does not see TD8 peaking to hurricane intensity and believes that TD8 will be a FISH.

"At this time, given the historic data and the timing of a more favorable landfalling pattern, I lean toward the idea that TD 8 will likely recurve and avoid U.S. landfall. It could make landfall in eastern Canada e.g., Newfoundland. As far as its maximum strength is concerned, I believe TD 8 will probably peak as a tropical storm with some chance at growing into a Category 1 hurricane."-MWatkins

Comments?

Mike never made that statement. That was donsutherland1:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=29&t=97931

Mike surely did'nt make that statement, i just finished reading a post of his in the models forum.It was the total opposite of the statement posted by you.

[chrisnnavarre]

Wow! Derek, look at what MWatkins has suggested...quite different from what you have forecasted...he does not see TD8 peaking to hurricane intensity and believes that TD8 will be a FISH.

"At this time, given the historic data and the timing of a more favorable landfalling pattern, I lean toward the idea that TD 8 will likely recurve and avoid U.S. landfall. It could make landfall in eastern Canada e.g., Newfoundland. As far as its maximum strength is concerned, I believe TD 8 will probably peak as a tropical storm with some chance at growing into a Category 1 hurricane."-MWatkins

Comments?

I really respect MWatkins opinion most of the time. But considering recent history with these storms, the presence of a strong guiding ridge to the north all this season and the current visual evidence that this system is most certainly moving west, I have no option but to totally disagree with that scenario. One can hope that would come true but I don't see it in the cards with this system.

Mike never made that statement. That was donsutherland1:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=29&t=97931

[PhillyWX]

My bad! I corrected the issue. Anyways, what are your thoughts on this disagreement? I would like some feedback from other ST2K'ers as I am curious...Is Don Sutherland a pro-met? His avatar says "Storm2k Analyst" so if he is a pro-met or not...

Don's not a pro met but he is about as good a forecaster as there is out there. He heavily uses synoptics and climo in his forecasts and is pretty accurate. I've known Don for a couple of years and he's about as good a forecaster for the non-mets as I have seen.

[Derek Ortt]

I NEVER made a forecast on whether this will hit the US mainland. I am leaning toward a miss due to a second trough off of the EC in 5 days

I however, do not believe this will clear the Caribbean

[x-y-no]

My bad! I corrected the issue. Anyways, what are your thoughts on this disagreement? I would like some feedback from other ST2K'ers as I am curious...Is Don Sutherland a pro-met? His avatar says "Storm2k Analyst" so if he is a pro-met or not...

Well it's an interesting opportunity to compare two very different methodologies. Don's method is much more dependent on climatology from past analog years, as I understand it.

[destruction92]

Wow! Derek, look at what MWatkins has suggested...quite different from what you have forecasted...he does not see TD8 peaking to hurricane intensity and believes that TD8 will be a FISH.

"At this time, given the historic data and the timing of a more favorable landfalling pattern, I lean toward the idea that TD 8 will likely recurve and avoid U.S. landfall. It could make landfall in eastern Canada e.g., Newfoundland. As far as its maximum strength is concerned, I believe TD 8 will probably peak as a tropical storm with some chance at growing into a Category 1 hurricane."-MWatkins

Comments?

Mike never made that statement. That was donsutherland1:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=29&t=97931

Mike surely did'nt make that statement, i just finished reading a post of his in the models forum.It was the total opposite of the statement posted by you.

If you took the time to read a few posts back, I already acknowledged my mistake and corrected it, and two people already have pointed this out. Let's get back on topic now...like I already said, does anyone have a comment about this disagreement between Derek and Don...is Don a pro-met...his avatar says "Storm2k analyst" so I am wondering if that makes him a pro-met or not...

[caneman]

IMO, TD8 is going to wind up being a Pensacola storm... just pure speculation at this point though, obviously.

In order to gain some level of respect you may not want to suggest landfall just East of you some 10 days out. Especially with nothing to back it up. I probably wouldn't have even said anyting but I first saw your GOM forecast and went to pull up the Sat but guess what there is nothing at all going on in the East GOM.

[destruction92]

I NEVER made a forecast on whether this will hit the US mainland. I am leaning toward a miss due to a second trough off of the EC in 5 days

I however, do not believe this will clear the Caribbean

No, no, I did not say that you forecasted a U.S. landfall...BUT, that you think that TD8 will become a hurricane and will track more southerly, while Don says that it will not become a hurricane and will probably miss the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

Lets hope that a ship is out there near where the center is to do two things,measure the wind speeds and pressure and pinpoint where the center is as Brown said there are uncertainties on where the center is.

[Windtalker2]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
348 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007



.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LATEST AVAILABLE GFS/ECMWF RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A MID AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A SPLITTING OF THE EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
COVERING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS.
THEREAFTER...GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN BECOME
QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A CUTOFF LOW EAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION...
ALSO DEVELOPING A CUTOFF LOW BUT POSITIONING IT FURTHER EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC BY MIDWEEK. GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE QUITE WET FOR THE AREA BY
NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD POINT TOWARDS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL POPS WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING MAINLAND CONVECTION TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. WITH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING HIGH AT THIS
POINT...WILL KEEP THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO POPS
AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AT THIS TIME.



PUBLIC/MARINE.........JACOBSON
AVIATION/SHORT TERM...LEE
DATA COLLECTION.......RIZZO

This "cutoff" low talk is a really good sign for Florida, IMO. Earlier today, I remember gatorcane discussing NOGAPS, EURO, and some other models suggesting a ridge maintaining its strength and generally steering TD8 west northwesterly in the direction of the Bahamas and extreme SE coast.

Further East in the Atlantic by midweek may be to late to pick up this soon to be storm and curve it away.

[destruction92]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
348 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007



.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
LATEST AVAILABLE GFS/ECMWF RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A MID AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A SPLITTING OF THE EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
COVERING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS.
THEREAFTER...GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN BECOME
QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A CUTOFF LOW EAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HAS COME CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION...
ALSO DEVELOPING A CUTOFF LOW BUT POSITIONING IT FURTHER EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC BY MIDWEEK. GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE QUITE WET FOR THE AREA BY
NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD POINT TOWARDS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL POPS WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING MAINLAND CONVECTION TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA. WITH UNCERTAINTY REMAINING HIGH AT THIS
POINT...WILL KEEP THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO POPS
AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AT THIS TIME.



PUBLIC/MARINE.........JACOBSON
AVIATION/SHORT TERM...LEE
DATA COLLECTION.......RIZZO

This "cutoff" low talk is a really good sign for Florida, IMO. Earlier today, I remember gatorcane discussing NOGAPS, EURO, and some other models suggesting a ridge maintaining its strength and generally steering TD8 west northwesterly in the direction of the Bahamas and extreme SE coast.

Further East in the Atlantic by midweek may be to late to pick up this soon to be storm and curve it away.

Apparently, both Derek and Don Sutherland think that a fish scenario is more likely. GREAT NEWS FOR THE U.S. MAINLAND. Hopefully the Lesser Antilles can share some of the U.S.'s luck.

[mattpetre]

IMO, TD8 is going to wind up being a Pensacola storm... just pure speculation at this point though, obviously.

In order to gain some level of respect you may not want to suggest landfall just East of you some 10 days out. Especially with nothing to back it up. I probably wouldn't have even said anyting but I first saw your GOM forecast and went to pull up the Sat but guess what there is nothing at all going on in the East GOM.

You are obviously correct about the level of respect at least from you.. And BTW, Pensacola is a long ways east of Houston (although I haven't changed my profile recently.) And I have as much to back up my prediction as anyone that says this will be a fish. It is obviously staying south of all forecast tracks at this point... come back to me and rub it in my face in 7 or 8 days now...

Keep your eye on the gulf for the next 3 days or so and then rub some more in my face if you wish... just a prediction and I always preface that I am rarely correct and will continue to be rarely correct. I am not here for respect... just entertainment and knowledge, but not in that order.

Sincerely,
Matthew G. Petre

[RL3AO]

Lets hope that a ship is out there near where the center is to do two things,measure the wind speeds and pressure and pinpoint where the center is as Brown said there are uncertainties on where the center is.

There is nothing. Besides the buoy, there has been only one ship within 250 nm of the 5pm advisory location within the past 6 hours.

Here it is

Code: Select all

                          Wind Wind
       Time  Lat   Long   Dir Speed (kt)
SHIP S 1800  12.70 -46.20 110 15.0


[CrazyC83]

Looking at this, the farther north this goes, the less shear:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html