TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[hial2]

Looking at this, the farther north this goes, the less shear:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html

I think the shear is forecasted to be a problem days for now...

[Derek Ortt]

could we please STOP SAYING THAT IF IT MISSES THE MAINLAND THAT IT IS A FISH


Have we already forgotten that there are heavily populated islands in its way. And this could be a significant strike on the USA in 5 days at the VI and PR. There is also the question of Canada. maybe Juan was a fish as well

rant off and I'll try not to do it again, but those posts are frustrating to me

[Extremecane]

Part of the storm is showing up, I see some red and brown barbs:

[CrazyC83]

Brown barbs = Tropical storm force winds. Now the T-numbers are key.

[fci]

I respect both Don and Derek.
And as long as Mike W has been referred to; I highly respect him too.

They're not going to all agree and one or two or none of them will be right.

When they ALL agree, generally you can expect that they are all right and plan for it to happen (usually). Even me, who usually goes with climatology and history and avoids the "unusual"; follows the consensus of these forecasters.

So, soak up the different prognostications and enjoy the ride!

[Brent]

The T-Numbers earlier already supported a TS...

so I'm calling it. Ingrid at 11pm.

[cycloneye]

Brown barbs = Tropical storm force winds. Now the T-numbers are key.

12/1745 UTC 13.5N 45.2W T2.5/2.5 08L -- Atlantic Ocean

Crazy,they were out earlier and supported a TS.

[CrazyC83]

Brown barbs = Tropical storm force winds. Now the T-numbers are key.

12/1745 UTC 13.5N 45.2W T2.5/2.5 08L -- Atlantic Ocean

Crazy,they were out earlier and supported a TS.

I knew that; I was wondering on the next set. If they go to T3.0, it becomes harder to justify holding back.

[mattpetre]

IMO, TD8 is going to wind up being a Pensacola storm... just pure speculation at this point though, obviously.

In order to gain some level of respect you may not want to suggest landfall just East of you some 10 days out. Especially with nothing to back it up. I probably wouldn't have even said anyting but I first saw your GOM forecast and went to pull up the Sat but guess what there is nothing at all going on in the East GOM.

BTW, there is a wave in the E. GOM and it may be interesting in light of rather favorable conditions that should appear once Humberto is inland.

[bvigal]

Part of the storm is showing up, I see some red and brown barbs:

This scatterometer picture is from (can't read it exactly) around 9:24z this morning, or 5:24amEDT. The date/time at the top of the page is misleading. You have to look at the time stamp on the bottom of the pass, in the tiny numerals.
Also, wind readings on the edge of the swath are always higher, thus may not be reliable.

P.S. Derek, thanks for your clarification about fish, etc.! I appreciate it!!

[Recurve]

Destruction 92 -- It's NOT a fish if it hits the Antilles, and Derek -- I hate to quote somebody else, but really

I'm too slow -- I just saw Derek's reply. Just want to concur. Not clearing the Caribbean is not a fish.

[bvigal]

water vapor loop
By the way, do I see a WSW wobble, or is it just one of those tricks of loop imagery?
(oh my, now I've become a wobble-watcher, )

[storms in NC]

I think it will just miss the Islands. As it moves close to the Bahamas. Then see from there. Out to sea or a ride? IMHO

[AtlanticWind]

water vapor loop
By the way, do I see a WSW wobble, or is it just one of those tricks of loop imagery?
(oh my, now I've become a wobble-watcher, )

I think thats just the way the convection is wrapping around the center. what I did notice on the vapor loop is outflow starting on the northh side for the first time,

[robbielyn]

please explain to me how this can go out to sea when there's that big High standing in the way? I do think the ull can suck it up the eastern seaboard but miss the outer banks? I don't know will be interesting to watch

[storms in NC]

please explain to me how this can go out to sea when there's that big High standing in the way? I do think the ull can suck it up the eastern seaboard but miss the outer banks? I don't know will be interesting to watch

We don't stick out that far.LOL

Oh and it is going to be fun reading here. It has been all day. I really enjoy reading some things that are really off the wall. But post away you all. I am out on this one I had my say and that is all I will say.

[robbielyn]

please explain to me how this can go out to sea when there's that big High standing in the way? I do think the ull can suck it up the eastern seaboard but miss the outer banks? I don't know will be interesting to watch

We don't stick out that far.LOL

what do you mean? tropical systems love to vacation there it sticks out quite a bit with a high righ off the east coast

[huricanwatcher]

WOW ........ we start wobble watching at this point --- we're all going to go blind

[destruction92]

could we please STOP SAYING THAT IF IT MISSES THE MAINLAND THAT IT IS A FISH


Have we already forgotten that there are heavily populated islands in its way. And this could be a significant strike on the USA in 5 days at the VI and PR. There is also the question of Canada. maybe Juan was a fish as well

rant off and I'll try not to do it again, but those posts are frustrating to me

Alright, whatever. But getting back to topic, I think it is safe to say that both YOU AND DON SUTHERLAND BELIEVE THAT TD8 WILL NOOTT BE A THREAT TO THE U.S. MAINLAND. There? I did not use the word "fish".

Do you mind to explain the differences between yours and Sutherland's forecasts? Don does not see TD8 becoming a hurricane and also implies that it may miss the Caribbean while you believe TD8 will become a hurricane and will track farther south into the Caribbean. I would really appreciate it if you could explain the differences...please don't evade it...I'm sure other people on this board are also curious. Thanks.

[cycloneye]

water vapor loop
By the way, do I see a WSW wobble, or is it just one of those tricks of loop imagery?
(oh my, now I've become a wobble-watcher, )

You are not alone. Is clear that WSW wobble or jog.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html