Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[Blown Away]

Definite NNE.
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... verlay=off

[hurricanetrack]

Well, that's the end of that.

Looks like the only place to fear hurricanes this season is Mexico.

Let's see what Karen can do in 2013.

[Thunder44]

Some of you are too jumpy. I suspect it may be doing a loop. It's not like it's gain that much latitude right now.

[wxman57]

Some of you are too jumpy. I suspect it may be doing a loop. It's not like it's gain that much latitude right now.

Center crossed 15N as of 7:45AM CDT near 49.1W. NHC's forecast had it crossing 15N near 2PM this afternoon at 51.1W. That's 120 miles error in 3 hours. I think a forecast revision is in order.

[Blown Away]

Interesting how the GFS shows an almost N movement of Karen rate now and then back to the W and eventually WSW into DR.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[wxman57]

Interesting how the GFS shows an almost N movement of Karen rate now and then back to the W and eventually WSW into DR.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

06Z GFS initialized the center near 14.2N/49.5W. By 12Z, it had the center at 14.8N/50.4W. 15.5N/51.2W at 18Z. So it's not close to the current 15N/49.1 position. But the GFS does indicate a WNW movement resuming shortly after a NW jog.

It could well be that the relative shear will diminish due to the northward motion of the center (more with the wind than against the wind) and the central convection could refire today. If so, then a quicker turn to the north and out to sea may be in order. I can't wait to see the NHC's 10am forecast.

[cpdaman]

it's almost like the system turning to the north is a survival mechanism.

trying to resist the death from shear, karen makes a desperate attempt at survival by turning with the shear (decreasing relative shear) these systems are so interesting

and also this just made my weekend most boring

[Bgator]

AS long as the LLC is intact, it can still regenerate though. I have a feeling that this is a temp. movement, the models cant be COMPLETELY wrong. I mean yes they have errors, but not errors as in the complete wrong direction.

[KWT]

Yeah but isn't the shear actually higher to the north of the system as well and so while in the short term relative shear may go down a touch the overall shear will go up if it heads back westward and indeed will probably go back up again if it gains much more lattiude as the shear is increasing more then the total relative shear is going down?

The key will be in about 12hrs time. In recent times its always been able to flare-up some convection but if it can't then the system is doomed.

[Thunder44]

Some of you are too jumpy. I suspect it may be doing a loop. It's not like it's gain that much latitude right now.

Center crossed 15N as of 7:45AM CDT near 49.1W. NHC's forecast had it crossing 15N near 2PM this afternoon at 51.1W. That's 120 miles error in 3 hours. I think a forecast revision is in order.

Maybe a shift further north in the track to account for the current position, but I don't think the "forecast philosophy" will change. In any case, the center crossing 15N at 49W doesn't significantly reduce the chances that this will threaten the US.

[Bgator]

Theres a small flare up near the east side of the storm. And it seems to be going North again now, not NNE, for at least the last few frames. It is COMPLETELY off the NHC forecast path though. I wonder what made it do that? Any answers?

['CaneFreak]

Some of you are too jumpy. I suspect it may be doing a loop. It's not like it's gain that much latitude right now.

Center crossed 15N as of 7:45AM CDT near 49.1W. NHC's forecast had it crossing 15N near 2PM this afternoon at 51.1W. That's 120 miles error in 3 hours. I think a forecast revision is in order.

Maybe a shift further north in the track to account for the current position, but I don't think the "forecast philosophy" will change. In any case, the center crossing 15N at 49W doesn't significantly reduce the chances that this will threaten the US.

Uhh...yeah it does actually....120 miles in 3 hours in a northward component with no westward component....RIP Karen...bon voyage...not only that....there are no longer any areas of decreasing shear if Karen were to resume a westward component to her track....
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[Bgator]

All the latest models have the centered in its new position, and still insist on bringing it west still. Though it will need to fight off the shear, which it seems to be having ahard time. THough it is not completely dead, the LLC is still there.

[KWT]

It should be noted that while its gone a little NE/N its not al lthat different from its 03.00Z position.
Indeed if you look at the intial position for that forecast you can see it either took a large SW step or the intial position was wrong:

INITIAL 28/0300Z 14.8N 49.5W 50 KT
INITIAL 28/0900Z 14.1N 49.8W 40 KT

If you streamline the last 12 hours you probably do average about 290-300 despite it obviously going much further north then that over the last few hours.

[tolakram]

New convection firing on east / NE side. Moving in the same direction as the shear will drop the shear. Not that that will do anything significant, but what an odd move.

[Sanibel]

That giant lazy ULL to its northwest smashed any Atlantic ridge and opened up a huge sheared hole that Karen is moving due north into. Another Ingrid. Hurricane doom synoptic.

[Bgator]

I wouldnt say it is close to an open wave, it has a LLC.

['CaneFreak]

To add to what I said previously, look at the movement of the central Atlantic ULL. Its moving slowly WSW!!!! That would do nothing but increase the southwesterly shear even more!!!! Now I am just waiting for wxman57 to post the "Its dead Jim" picture in this topic.

[Bgator]

Its about to enter shear of about 50kts. I still cant beleive florida hasnt felt anything in 2 years.(Ernesto does not count)

[Thunder44]

Center crossed 15N as of 7:45AM CDT near 49.1W. NHC's forecast had it crossing 15N near 2PM this afternoon at 51.1W. That's 120 miles error in 3 hours. I think a forecast revision is in order.

Maybe a shift further north in the track to account for the current position, but I don't think the "forecast philosophy" will change. In any case, the center crossing 15N at 49W doesn't significantly reduce the chances that this will threaten the US.

Uhh...yeah it does actually....120 miles in 3 hours in a northward component with no westward component....RIP Karen...bon voyage...not only that....there are no longer any areas of decreasing shear if Karen were to resume a westward component to her track....
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html[/quote]

I disagree. You can't jump to that conclusion based on 3 hours of motion. It was going NNE now it's going North. The motion may truely be erratic and the shear is going to remain strong no matter what direction goes today.

I remember Gabrielle when it was along the east coast, it looked like it the LLC was going to NNE and it would die for sometime and some thought it was going to sea and die, but it wound reformin SW and intensifying before it made landfall on NC coast. This is not say we have same scenerio here, but not come to conclusions so quickly, especially when the models say differently.