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destruction92 wrote:Why is it that every few hours for the past few days we have just been posting GFS nonsens???
What about other model runs...like GFDL, NOGAPS, Canadian, and Euro????
We all know how wise it is to depend on just 1 model for guidance!
x-y-no wrote:RL3AO wrote:CourierPR wrote:Are the mountains of Puerto Rico high enough to disrupt Dean's circulation?
Mountains might be high enough, but there aren't enough of them.
Yeah, I think that's right.
Hispaniola can tear a storm to shreds, though.
destruction92 wrote:Why is it that every few hours for the past few days we have just been posting GFS nonsens???
What about other model runs...like GFDL, NOGAPS, Canadian, and Euro????
We all know how wise it is to depend on just 1 model for guidance!
vacanechaser wrote:the shift could be in part due to the further south position of the center now
vacanechaser wrote:destruction92 wrote:Why is it that every few hours for the past few days we have just been posting GFS nonsens???
What about other model runs...like GFDL, NOGAPS, Canadian, and Euro????
We all know how wise it is to depend on just 1 model for guidance!
the others have been posted...
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
destruction92 wrote:vacanechaser wrote:destruction92 wrote:Why is it that every few hours for the past few days we have just been posting GFS nonsens???
What about other model runs...like GFDL, NOGAPS, Canadian, and Euro????
We all know how wise it is to depend on just 1 model for guidance!
the others have been posted...
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
Where? A link would be nice. Thanks.
StormWarning1 wrote:destruction92 wrote:Why is it that every few hours for the past few days we have just been posting GFS nonsens???
What about other model runs...like GFDL, NOGAPS, Canadian, and Euro????
We all know how wise it is to depend on just 1 model for guidance!
GFDL is run of the GFS. NHC weights the GFS heavier than other models, unless some really weird runin its forecast,they have said so.
loro-rojo wrote:weatherguru18 wrote:
Now if I lived in the islands or Puerto Rico, now is not the time to panic. Most of the islanders (I think) have storm shutters that can automatically lower during a storm. This thing is still days away. I'm not so sure that this will feel the weakness of a troph. It's far to the south, even more so than first thought, and is farther west than anticipated. Again, it's all about the timeing. I have a gut feeling that this thing may buzz right by Puerto Rico (north or south). The next 24 hrs are critical. Afterall, your "asking" a hurricane to hit a point over a thousand miles away.
This is not true. I don't know what makes you believe that most Puerto Ricans have automatic storm shutters. Many Puerto Ricans have storm shutters, but that is besides the point.
The Puerto Rican economy is going through some hard times as we speak, and no one wants to go through a hurricane. The last thing this island needs is a hurricane to complicate things. Many people live in inadequate housing, and many mountain communities will be in danger of land slides and flash flooding.
destruction92 wrote:vacanechaser wrote:destruction92 wrote:Why is it that every few hours for the past few days we have just been posting GFS nonsens???
What about other model runs...like GFDL, NOGAPS, Canadian, and Euro????
We all know how wise it is to depend on just 1 model for guidance!
the others have been posted...
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
Where? A link would be nice. Thanks.
Andy_L wrote:hmmmm....posted this question already but i think it went into "post-never-never-land"
How close does Dean have to get to the Islands before Recon will start flights into the storm???
destruction92 wrote:StormWarning1 wrote:destruction92 wrote:Why is it that every few hours for the past few days we have just been posting GFS nonsens???
What about other model runs...like GFDL, NOGAPS, Canadian, and Euro????
We all know how wise it is to depend on just 1 model for guidance!
GFDL is run of the GFS. NHC weights the GFS heavier than other models, unless some really weird runin its forecast,they have said so.
Well here is what Derek Ortt (a respected and well-known meteorologist of ST2K) has to say about the GFS in a recent post:
"I do not use the GFS for forecasting hurricanes, so that run carries no weight for me
This kind of reminds me of what the models were doing with Ivan... they initially had Ivan missing the Caribbean when the synoptics guaranteed a Windward Islands hit. The Leewards are threatened by this one though... its not identical to the Ivan setup but does not appear all that dissimilar"
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