Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[curtadams]

The NE move should end any substantial chance of a mainland strike. Some poster wrote during Ingrid that no storm that moved NW in the Central Atlantic had ever hit the US. Given that, what's the chance that a NE moving storm would?

Um.. well... http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/r ... e2004.html

Not saying that is what would happen, but it's NOT unprecedented.

Jeanne did her little loop-de-loop over the Western Atlantic, something like a 1000 miles west of where Karen is. Not the same. Plus, it wasn't almost October, either.

[Derek Ortt]

stick a fork in Karen

this is exactly why I do not use the EURO. Some got all worked up about a major hurricane threat for nothing. I hope it is sent back to the trash pile where it belongs

[jhamps10]

stick a fork in Karen

this is exactly why I do not use the EURO. Some got all worked up about a major hurricane threat for nothing. I hope it is sent back to the trash pile where it belongs

I'll be saving that post for a few days derek....

I'm thinking you'll be eating some crow next week dealing with karen. I just don't see it as a "stick a fork" in it.

and no offense, how can you totally discard EURO when it hit nearly dead on during Dean and Felix? and you can't use the it's not in deep tropics excuse this time,

[Derek Ortt]

the Euro was very lucky with those two storms. Some here worship this model, when I have been reminded many times from a visiting scholar from the Fatherland that the EURO is not even designed for tropical forecasting. I may be the best mid-latitude model out there, but that is not the case for the tropics

[KWT]

Maybe it was lucky with some systems this season Derek but you still can't escape the fact that along with the GFDL it was the best model in the tropics in the 06 season according to verification.
I do think you maybe right though, Karen is going to have a very hard time of keeping going. Even if it re-opens we shouldn't completely discount it even though the atmosperhic set-up is rather poor for a long time ahead.

[jhamps10]

the Euro was very lucky with those two storms. Some here worship this model, when I have been reminded many times from a visiting scholar from the Fatherland that the EURO is not even designed for tropical forecasting. I may be the best mid-latitude model out there, but that is not the case for the tropics

lucky 2 times in 1 season......

Sorry aien't buying it at all, I don't "Worship" the euro, and to be quite honest, reading your posts I don't think you like ANY model, or at least any model that shows a storm intensifying at all.......

I got a feeling that some other pro mets will highly disagree on your EURO is lucky theroy.

[DelrayMorris]

The NE move should end any substantial chance of a mainland strike. Some poster wrote during Ingrid that no storm that moved NW in the Central Atlantic had ever hit the US. Given that, what's the chance that a NE moving storm would?

Um.. well... http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/r ... e2004.html

Not saying that is what would happen, but it's NOT unprecedented.

Jeanne did her little loop-de-loop over the Western Atlantic, something like a 1000 miles west of where Karen is. Not the same. Plus, it wasn't almost October, either.

Sorry. I didn't realize that there was a difference in 1000 miles. I did try to say that Karen wasn't going to do the same thing. I was just trying to point out that other hurricanes have done strange things.

However, it was Sept 26, 2004 when Jeanne hit Florida, about 3 weeks to the day from Francis. So, yes, it was almost October.

[Derek Ortt]

no, I do not like any model that produces unrealistic solutions.

No need to get all in a huff just because a storm is not going to his the USA

The GFDL is a good model

[jhamps10]

no, I do not like any model that produces unrealistic solutions.

No need to get all in a huff just because a storm is not going to his the USA

The GFDL is a good model

Did I say I was going in a huff because it in your eyes aien't gonna hit the US.... NO
Well first of all we don't know yet that it wont. I mean for crying out loud it took that wierd turn totally unexpected by most of the models, and while it is unlikely right now to hit the US, it still is not 100% certain Derek

[Sanibel]

That ULL is a merciless hurricane grinder with shear. We saw two opposites this year. An unusually strong low-tracking ridge followed by a weak guidance synoptic full of hostile upper winds.

[wxman57]

Mean flow 700-400mb indicate a track to NW-NNW next few days then out to sea. With Karen farther north it probably won't miss that approaching trof. Looking more impressive on satellite with some storms within 50 miles east of the LLC now.

[jhamps10]

Mean flow 700-400mb indicate a track to NW-NNW next few days then out to sea. With Karen farther north it probably won't miss that approaching trof. Looking more impressive on satellite with some storms within 50 miles east of the LLC now.

just getting ready to post that.
here's the latest visable shot:

[emeraldislencguy]

not trying to be rude or crude--but sometimes some people on here think they have all the answers and alomst feel like they are "God"--we all need to more polite and more understanding--no need to get ugly with each other.

[Thunder44]

no, I do not like any model that produces unrealistic solutions.

No need to get all in a huff just because a storm is not going to his the USA

The GFDL is a good model

At least the ECMWF has gotten some of them right. The GFDL has been had right of track bias all season, and I don't believe it's down well with any system. Why would you take the GFDL over ECMWF?

[Evil Jeremy]

00
WTNT32 KNHC 281443
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 28 2007

...KAREN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.2 WEST OR ABOUT 805
MILES...1295 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...15.1 N...49.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

[CrazyC83]

One possibility that exists is dissipation and regeneration...the slower motion will not help her at all. But I don't think Karen is going WNW, more like NW.

[Evil Jeremy]

Discussion:

visible imagery suggests that the weakening circulation of Karen has
moved erratically this morning...but now appears to be returning to
a previous west-northwestward motion. An earlier 0910z Quikscat
overpass indicated that there was a small area of believable
flagged 40 kt winds in the northeast quadrant. But since
then...that convective area containing the coldest tops has
diminished considerably. Based on the Quikscat interpretation and
current satellite intensity estimates of 35 kt...the initial
intensity is lowered to 35 kt...and this could be generous.


Persistently strong southwesterly shear is expected to affect Karen
during the next 72 hours or so. Thereafter...the intensity guidance
agrees in bringing unfavorable upper-level northwesterly winds over
the system. The official forecast indicates weakening to a
depression in 12 hours...following the SHIPS and lgem.
Afterward...because of the potential of intermittent bursts of deep
convection near the center...the forecast shows little change in
strength. However...Karen could become a remnant low in 36
hours...as indicated by both aforementioned intensity models. In
previous runs...despite the obvious unfavorable upper level
wind environment...some dynamical models suggested significant
strengthening. However...in the latest runs...the GFS weakens Karen
and this is a more realistic scenario. ECMWF and GFDL insist on
strengthening. We shall see in the next run if these models come to
an agreement with the GFS.


Initial motion is estimated at 295/8. A low- to mid level
tropospheric subtropical ridge to the north of Karen should
maintain a west-northwestward motion during the next 2 days.
Afterward...a developing weakness in the ridge northwest of the
cyclone should temporarily induce a more northwestward motion.
Around the 96 hour period...all of the dynamical models are
indicating that the trough will fill and move northeast allowing a
mid- level high to build southeast of Bermuda. This change in the
steering pattern should cause Karen to turn more to the west...if
the cyclone survives for that long of a period. The official track
forecast is close to the previous package and is based on a blend of
the model consensus...and hedges toward the shallow mean layer
BAM....since the Karen is forecast to weaken.

Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 28/1500z 15.1n 49.2w 35 kt
12hr VT 29/0000z 15.5n 50.5w 30 kt
24hr VT 29/1200z 16.6n 52.0w 30 kt
36hr VT 30/0000z 17.6n 53.3w 30 kt
48hr VT 30/1200z 18.5n 54.6w 30 kt
72hr VT 01/1200z 20.0n 56.5w 30 kt
96hr VT 02/1200z 21.5n 58.0w 30 kt
120hr VT 03/1200z 22.0n 60.0w 30 kt


$$
forecaster Roberts

['CaneFreak]

"Persistently strong southwesterly shear is expected to affect Karen
during the next 72 hours or so." NEXT!!!

[Derek Ortt]

GFDL is designed spcifically for hurricanes. It has not ben as bad as you are thinking, Thunder. it has produced many very good forecasts. We just tend to remember the bad more than the good

[BigA]

Predicting a system to exist as a 30kt depression for 3 days is pretty much an NHC euphemism for forecasted dissipation. I would be surprised if this survives.