Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[dwg71]

I give this less than a 3.6% chance of developing, with nothing on the horizon, I thinks its safe to say we are going to hit the peak at 6/2/2. I still dont see 15-17 storms this year. 11-13 sounds mroe realistic. IMO.

[tolakram]

A curved line developing. I don't think it counts for much.

[miamicanes177]

The forecast from Accuweather for 99L states:

"The system is trapped on the southern edge of the high pressure area that has been building over the Northeast. As the high moves over the Atlantic, it will force the intensifying low pressure closer to the East Coast. By Friday, the low is expect to reach tropical storm strength and is likely to be named Gabrielle.The Hurricane Center meteorologists are forecasting the storm will make landfall on the Carolina coastline Sunday morning as a Category 1 or perhaps a Category 2 hurricane."

"Air Force reconnaissance aircraft found surface winds of 30-35 mph and a lower-level atmosphere that is tropical Wednesday afternoon. However, upper-level winds over the feature are still causing strong shear, so this could be classified as a tropical depression in the lower levels and a non-tropical system aloft."

"Once the upper-level trough moves farther away, upper-level winds will relax and shear will drop off enough to allow thunderstorms to wrap around the entire system. That should start to happen late today or tonight, and as a result, we believe this will become a tropical depression tonight. It's also possible the system could quickly become a tropical storm with the decrease in shear."

[BensonTCwatcher]

Shear may have come down about 15 kts so far. But the trend is obvoius now

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

The high is building to the SE of the system, let's what we get into tonight.

[BigA]

I wouldn't discount the possibility of this developing, even after all the abuse it has been through. It really does look like shear will seriously slacken by tonight and tomorrow, at least according to the models, including this one (Notice the deep reds that build in from 12-48 hours)

[Brent]

The forecast from Accuweather for 99L states:

"The system is trapped on the southern edge of the high pressure area that has been building over the Northeast. As the high moves over the Atlantic, it will force the intensifying low pressure closer to the East Coast. By Friday, the low is expect to reach tropical storm strength and is likely to be named Gabrielle.The Hurricane Center meteorologists are forecasting the storm will make landfall on the Carolina coastline Sunday morning as a Category 1 or perhaps a Category 2 hurricane."

"Air Force reconnaissance aircraft found surface winds of 30-35 mph and a lower-level atmosphere that is tropical Wednesday afternoon. However, upper-level winds over the feature are still causing strong shear, so this could be classified as a tropical depression in the lower levels and a non-tropical system aloft."

"Once the upper-level trough moves farther away, upper-level winds will relax and shear will drop off enough to allow thunderstorms to wrap around the entire system. That should start to happen late today or tonight, and as a result, we believe this will become a tropical depression tonight. It's also possible the system could quickly become a tropical storm with the decrease in shear."

The NHC is predicting a hurricane in the Carolinas in 60 HOURS? Where?

and I've been hearing the shear will relax for TWO days and it still hasn't. Blah. Not totally ruling out development but a hurricane looks HIGHLY unlikely.

[dtrain44]

Accuweather calls themselves the hurricane center: they're not talking about the NHC.....

[Derek Ortt]

I have ZERO confidence in the models at this moment

[Ed Mahmoud]

The forecast from Accuweather for 99L states:

"The system is trapped on the southern edge of the high pressure area that has been building over the Northeast. As the high moves over the Atlantic, it will force the intensifying low pressure closer to the East Coast. By Friday, the low is expect to reach tropical storm strength and is likely to be named Gabrielle.The Hurricane Center meteorologists are forecasting the storm will make landfall on the Carolina coastline Sunday morning as a Category 1 or perhaps a Category 2 hurricane."

"Air Force reconnaissance aircraft found surface winds of 30-35 mph and a lower-level atmosphere that is tropical Wednesday afternoon. However, upper-level winds over the feature are still causing strong shear, so this could be classified as a tropical depression in the lower levels and a non-tropical system aloft."

"Once the upper-level trough moves farther away, upper-level winds will relax and shear will drop off enough to allow thunderstorms to wrap around the entire system. That should start to happen late today or tonight, and as a result, we believe this will become a tropical depression tonight. It's also possible the system could quickly become a tropical storm with the decrease in shear."

Where does AccuWeather get that idea from? NHC cancelled today's recon, the system looks pathetic, and it looks like they didn't even bother with a 12Z GFDL run. Disappointing week or two at AccuWx

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



Before a final decision is made, 99L will have another 24 hrs. The LLC has remained visible throughout the day and conditions are forecasted to become more favorable. 99L has endured the worse, lets see if Mother Natures rewards its persistance.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Accuweather calls themselves the hurricane center: they're not talking about the NHC.....

I hope not. Awfully confusing to do that when there is a National Hurricane Center. I have seen remarks from AccuWx about TWC calling themselves 'The Hurricane Authority'. A little pot and kettle action there.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, 18Z WRF hasn't given up hope, and even seems to see JB's Texas tropical depression that will form from t-storms West of Florida.

I know there is a model thread, but I'm not planning to link each 6 hour increment of the GFS as it becomes available as they do over on that thread.

[miamicanes177]

[HURAKAN]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

The loop shows well-defined LLC with very little convection over or around. Nonetheless, if you speed up the loop you can see how the LLC dominates its immediate area and it's not necessarity attached to the trough. It looks stationary at the moment. 99L is not dead, just struggling.

[Zardoz]

...99L is not dead, just struggling.

Whatever it is, it's been an interesting system to track, and this has been a fun thread to follow.

[dwg71]

i've seen it all now, how about Gabrielle to be??? Any credibility they once had is slowly fading. I refer to them as "Accucrap", because its all pretty much dressed up BS.

[CrazyC83]

This could do anything right now...

[Ed Mahmoud]

i've seen it all now, how about Gabrielle to be??? Any credibility they once had is slowly fading. I refer to them as "Accucrap", because its all pretty much dressed up BS.

Awfully bold forecast, anyway. Not sure what time of the day each position is supposed to verify, but to be a 40 mph storm tomorrow, and a hurricane a day after, this system has to move with all alacrity, and organize from next to nothing.

Let me go look at the floater again...

Nope, still looks like a very stretched low cloud swirl with meager attempts at convection quickly blowing off.

[mattpetre]

I could see this thing in the GOM developing as JB stated... is there a thread going on this?

[x-y-no]

Accuweather calls themselves the hurricane center: they're not talking about the NHC.....

I hope not. Awfully confusing to do that when there is a National Hurricane Center. I have seen remarks from AccuWx about TWC calling themselves 'The Hurricane Authority'. A little pot and kettle action there.

Wow ... I hope not too.

If they want to refer to "The Accuweather Hurricane Center" or something like that, fine. But to most of the public, myself included, "the Hurricane Center" means one and only one thing - the National Hurricane Center.