TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[Blown Away]

[quote="hurricanetrack"]That shear down the road is going to be interesting to see. I suppose if it makes it through the shear zone, it could come out the other side looking real good. Heck, pre-Gabrielle survived a serious butt-whoppin' and tried its darndest to become something. This has been an odd season- the only 2 canes: cat-5s. Everthing else- struggle city.[/quote]

Seems the mid latitudes are generally hostile.

[Derek Ortt]

thats because model NCEP increased the shear in its 18Z run by about 10KT

however, it if cannot get a 2 hour shear forecast correct, it most likely is going to be horrific in a 120 hour shear forecast

[alan1961]

the trades are having a pull on this.

[bvigal]

Anyone had a look at mid-upper air models for next 3 days? They must show some bang-up shear building. I've been checking the cyclogen models all day, and even with 18z now included, the GFS, NGP, Canadian, UK - all of them, show this thing fizzle before it gets to 55W. I'm going to bed pretty soon, look again in the morning!

(Edit) Just posted this and saw your comment, Derek (I'm slow when I'm tired). So you think the models just aren't getting an accurate picture of what shear will be? Makes sense.

[alan1961]

Anyone had a look at mid-upper air models for next 3 days? They must show some bang-up shear building. I've been checking the cyclogen models all day, and even with 18z now included, the GFS, NGP, Canadian, UK - all of them, show this thing fizzle before it gets to 55W. I'm going to bed pretty soon, look again in the morning!

if your a hurricane nut you wont go to bed

[mattpetre]

Anyone had a look at mid-upper air models for next 3 days? They must show some bang-up shear building. I've been checking the cyclogen models all day, and even with 18z now included, the GFS, NGP, Canadian, UK - all of them, show this thing fizzle before it gets to 55W. I'm going to bed pretty soon, look again in the morning!

I'm willing to bet the farm that this storm WILL NOT fizzle...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

**Don't be a silly squirrel. This forecast is NOT official.***

if this gets into the caribbean then SHIPS is on crack
saying only 56 kt...
IMO cat 3 at least if it enters the caribbean.
goes over the felix/dean waters.
we know what happened when felix
hit those waters.

and also what derek said, that shear forecast
is extremely dubious.

[bvigal]

Anyone had a look at mid-upper air models for next 3 days? They must show some bang-up shear building. I've been checking the cyclogen models all day, and even with 18z now included, the GFS, NGP, Canadian, UK - all of them, show this thing fizzle before it gets to 55W. I'm going to bed pretty soon, look again in the morning!

I'm willing to bet the farm that this storm WILL NOT fizzle...

yeah, I just read all the posts about the shear not being accurate in the models. makes sense.

[windstorm99]

**Don't be a silly squirrel. This forecast is NOT official.***

if this gets into the caribbean then SHIPS is on crack
saying only 56 kt...
IMO cat 3 at least if it enters the caribbean.
goes over the felix/dean waters.
we know what happened when felix
hit those waters.

and also what derek said, that shear forecast
is extremely dubious.

I cant see this moving westward through the caribbean....

[Brent]

Anyone had a look at mid-upper air models for next 3 days? They must show some bang-up shear building. I've been checking the cyclogen models all day, and even with 18z now included, the GFS, NGP, Canadian, UK - all of them, show this thing fizzle before it gets to 55W. I'm going to bed pretty soon, look again in the morning!

I'm willing to bet the farm that this storm WILL NOT fizzle...

I agree with this but there's something fishy going on(no not as in it's a fish). I can't place it, other than it's going to be south of most of the models. As what though? There's been no middle ground this year, everything has either been a Cat 5 or a TS.

Shear forecasts it should be noted are notoriously unreliable.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Anyone had a look at mid-upper air models for next 3 days? They must show some bang-up shear building. I've been checking the cyclogen models all day, and even with 18z now included, the GFS, NGP, Canadian, UK - all of them, show this thing fizzle before it gets to 55W. I'm going to bed pretty soon, look again in the morning!

I'm willing to bet the farm that this storm WILL NOT fizzle...

I'll bet the entire Florida Everglades this won't fizzle and the
shear forecast is a complete mess up.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

**Don't be a silly squirrel. This forecast is NOT official.***

if this gets into the caribbean then SHIPS is on crack
saying only 56 kt...
IMO cat 3 at least if it enters the caribbean.
goes over the felix/dean waters.
we know what happened when felix
hit those waters.

and also what derek said, that shear forecast
is extremely dubious.

I cant see this moving westward through the caribbean....

I am not saying it will move All the way westward...it will
move some of the way westward and then most likely
a september trough will began to draw it northward
in 6-7 days.

Beyond that it could go between caribbean islands northward
or go to the central carib but too early to tell.

[Blown Away]

Accuweather has Ingrid as a Cat 2 almost 300 miles farther W than the NHC in 5 days. I'll always go w/ the NHC but I'm not so sure about TD8 basically crawling WNW for 3 days.

just looked at the tropical update from Bastardi on Accuweather and he believes a disturbance well north of the islands currently will be in the florida straits by early next week but he didn't say whether it be a developing system or not.

Accuweather has Ingrid as a Cat 2 NW of PR next Tuesday, so I would expect a hurricane if Ingrid follows his prediction. I didn't like Accuweather classifying systems before the NHC, that is just to confusing to the masses. I like JB, he makes his prediction right or wrong he tells us what he thinks. Most here want to know what's going to happen long term. I know the Pro Mets have a responsibility to report the most accurate forecast possible, but in this small group forum gut feelings won't be held against you.

[bvigal]

OK, so shear is not handled well by the models.
Then there was also the NHC's Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch's maps tonight, which I posted, and no one comment, with W. Barnes showing it weaker at 48hrs, than 24. What is his thinking? It didn't agree with any of the NHC advisory data.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

[Derek Ortt]

shear forecasts can get really bad when they are forming an upper anti-cyclone over a phantom cyclone just to the NE of this cyclone. Of course there will be very strong shear over this system then

[cycloneye]

A wide view of TD 8 in relation to the Eastern Caribbean islands.

[BigA]

A wide view of TD 8 in relation to the Eastern Caribbean islands.

This system looks good, but is the convection displaced to the west of the circulation? Hard to tell at night

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

**NOT an Official Forecast.***
Ridge builds in strong,
it is currently being underestimated by the models


The point at the end DOES NOT imply any path
after what is drawn. I have no idea
where it goes after that.

Forecast Reasoning:
AS for intensity, the models are underdoing
it substantially. I understand that there is forecasted
to be shear in the 3-5 day period, but this time of
year shear is not typically strong enough to
significantly inhibit tropical systems, especially
considering the "increasingly likely...strong ridge"
forecasted to establish itself in the national weather
surface outlook I posted below.

With the waters warm and a ridge building in the
6-7 day period, this could intensify to a Significant hurricane.


Source: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST
WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN U.S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...HELPING TO PUSH A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WHILE WE AREN`T LOOKING FOR A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE BY ANY MEANS...IT`S BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIDGE ACROSS THE BOUNDARY...BRINGING ENHANCED
NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING ABOVE 5000 FEET

[Weatherfreak14]

**NOT an Official Forecast.***
Ridge builds in strong,
it is currently being underestimated by the models


The point at the end DOES NOT imply any path
after what is drawn. I have no idea
where it goes after that.

Im not really sure if it will take that much of a westerly path i think the ridge will be stronger than shown but i still think that it will be near the northern parts of the islands to PR.. I hope not but i think thats what looks to be shaping up. if the models are underestimating it.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

oops sorry folks...I did not have my reasoning in that post at first
reasoning added, post edited.