TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[MetroMike]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

Seems like there could be trouble ahead for intensity.

[BigA]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/intensity_early1.png

Seems like there could be trouble ahead for intensity.

I cant get the link to work. Do you mean trouble for us, or the storm?

It looks like convection is blossoming on the northern side, near where the center is

[windstorm99]

[windstorm99]

TD8 looks sick...



Continues to look sheared to me.

[cycloneye]

The LLC is in the NE part of the convection.

[Buck]

Looks to be some new reds on IR over the center.

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

TD #8 is looking a little disorganized, but there is very ample opportunity for it to become Ingrid tomorrow if it gets its act together. Water temperatures are warm, shear is fairly low, and there is lots of moisture to be had. If no Ingrid tomorrow, Friday for almost certain.

My initial guess is that this depression will head west-northwest for a couple days, then westward towards the Leeward Islands. It will like approach the area sometime on Monday. By then, I expect it to be a minimal C1 hurricane.

All bets are off beyond there, but my best guess is that the ridge off the East Coast will allow the system to make its way through the Bahamas before curving northward. This would put the Carolinas at highest risk for a visit from this system, if it gets going.

HOWEVER, the last idea is a very radical one and only one of many possibilities that could happen down the road. Now is NOT the time to be alarmed or panicked; simply have a plan in case the depression develops further and heads your way.

-Andrew92

[Sanibel]

Is there a blocking ridge oriented NE-SW pushing the convection WSW?

If there is this could spring in a poleward direction when it frees or track more west. I'm not sure. Maybe it will continue WNW after this weird swing.

[windstorm99]

delete post...

[CrazyC83]

This seems to be holding steady this evening. I think it is a 35 kt tropical storm personally (pressure 1005mb), based on the old T2.5 and the brown barbs on QuikSCAT. Will it ramp up with DMax?

[windstorm99]

The LLC is in the NE part of the convection.

[HURAKAN]

Note: The heavy rainfall and strong winds forecast is in the case this system moves over the shaded area.

[Brent]

This seems to be holding steady this evening. I think it is a 35 kt tropical storm personally, based on the old T2.5 and the brown barbs on QuikSCAT. Will it ramp up with DMax?

I'm thinking yes. Dean took 24 hours to become a TS and also struggled.

[RL3AO]

Considering the convection has been sheared SW, I will say no upgrade at 11.

[CrazyC83]

Considering the convection has been sheared SW, I will say no upgrade at 11.

Same here (at least for consistency sake), although some mets at the NHC probably think this is a tropical storm (which I personally think as well - and has been since this afternoon).

[Brent]

Considering the convection has been sheared SW, I will say no upgrade at 11.

Same here (at least for consistency sake), although some mets at the NHC probably think this is a tropical storm (which I personally think as well - and has been since this afternoon).

Agreed, plus the 0z models and NRL still say NONAME, so I'll be shocked if it's upgraded at 11.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I believe this has been a tropical storm for the last 6 hours. But the LLC is on the northeast side of the convection, I don't understand the need to hold off on it. But I guest they will intill it forms over the center.

[CrazyC83]

QuikSCAT (from 10:03 pm EDT) still shows 35 kt uncontaminated winds...

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas26.png

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

QuikSCAT (from 10:03 pm EDT) still shows 35 kt uncontaminated winds...

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas26.png

Its soild as a rock. I believe the subtropical ridge is starting to build to its north....We will see.

[gatorcane]

If this thing crawls WNW for nearly a week, you would think a CONUS front would eventually come in and turn it out...

The Leewards are at risk for sure. The CONUS I'm not so sure honestly.

By the time it gets to the CONUS based on NHC guidance you would think in late September short waves would be pushing off the EC.

Just my thinking now.

If this thing speeds up though...could be a different story.