Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[HURAKAN]

Re-run:

974
WHXX01 KWBC 281831
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1831 UTC FRI SEP 28 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE KAREN (AL122007) 20070928 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070928 1800 070929 0600 070929 1800 070930 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 49.3W 17.2N 51.8W 18.7N 54.0W 20.1N 55.7W
BAMD 16.0N 49.3W 17.5N 49.9W 19.1N 50.3W 20.7N 50.7W
BAMM 16.0N 49.3W 17.2N 50.7W 18.5N 51.9W 19.8N 52.8W
LBAR 16.0N 49.3W 17.1N 49.6W 18.3N 50.3W 19.2N 50.9W
SHIP 35KTS 31KTS 28KTS 26KTS
DSHP 35KTS 31KTS 28KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070930 1800 071001 1800 071002 1800 071003 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.5N 57.1W 24.1N 60.0W 26.9N 62.8W 31.0N 63.5W
BAMD 22.3N 51.3W 24.9N 53.2W 26.4N 55.7W 26.8N 59.1W
BAMM 21.2N 53.6W 23.8N 55.7W 26.1N 58.4W 28.6N 60.7W
LBAR 20.5N 51.6W 22.2N 52.4W 22.5N 53.7W 22.1N 55.6W
SHIP 28KTS 34KTS 42KTS 42KTS
DSHP 28KTS 34KTS 42KTS 42KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.0N LONCUR = 49.3W DIRCUR = 345DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 49.4W DIRM12 = 339DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 14.2N LONM24 = 47.9W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 130NM RD34SE = 110NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 30NM

$$
NNNN

[Derek Ortt]

SHIPS diagnoses 28KT of shear currently and increases it to 42KT in just 12 hours

[wxman57]

take a good look at the visable loop. I am seeing something of a turn back to the west here it's one of the following two things:

it's either opening up into a wave, which makes it appear that it's turning west, although unlikely as we see that big convection blow up,

or it really is turning back more to the WNW, it's a VERY sharp movement on the satellite, so I'm leaning towards the 2nd option for now.

New imagery suggests the former, not the latter. It's being ripped apart.

[Derek Ortt]

the global models are not initialized with any motion. Only the simple track models are given an initial push.

I have ran MM5 many times and you do not add in the initial motion. The model determines the initial motion

[wxman57]

SHIPS diagnoses 28KT of shear currently and increases it to 42KT in just 12 hours

Yeah, zoom out on the satellite loop and look at that band of very fast-moving cirrus racing from St. Lucia ENE toward the center of Karen. It's getting blasted now.

[k4sdi]

Am I right in thinking that if Karen opens up into a wave, movement will be more westerly?

And, will this give her a chance to regroup, restrengthen in the days to come to be a threat to the east coast?

Thanks!

[bucman1]

Its a great question-and my ameturish opinion is -nothing will happen until the shear relaxes
although as duly noted by the pro mets weaker storms will move west-(if they have a chance to).

[Category 5]

I hate to stick a fork in a storm before it's dead, but I'm having a hard time believing that this will be alive when I get home from my vacation sunday. Everytime it flares up, it's just ripped apart again. An A for effort, but that won't cut it this time. The sheer is just too much for it. Karens about to die an ugly, painful death.

[cycloneye]

12z EURO



The EURO has at the 12z run a weak Karen and at the end of run it has the weak low near the Bahamas.

[HURAKAN]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
28/1745 UTC 15.9N 49.2W T2.5/2.5 KAREN -- Atlantic Ocean

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

I'm watching RGB and now that the convections left the center again I fix the LLC at about 16.1N 49.5W. Appears in the past 2 hours or so a marked turn back towards the NW. Anyone else see that?

[Blown Away]

I'm watching RGB and now that the convections left the center again I fix the LLC at about 16.1N 49.5W. Appears in the past 2 hours or so a marked turn back towards the NW. Anyone else see that?

I agree w/ 16.1N but closer to 49.8W.

[wxman57]

I'm watching RGB and now that the convections left the center again I fix the LLC at about 16.1N 49.5W. Appears in the past 2 hours or so a marked turn back towards the NW. Anyone else see that?

That convection is moving NW, as if it were an open wave.

[Thunder44]

I'm watching RGB and now that the convections left the center again I fix the LLC at about 16.1N 49.5W. Appears in the past 2 hours or so a marked turn back towards the NW. Anyone else see that?

Yeah, maybe even WNW. Convection is also firing up NW of center. But I also see that shear has increased over the storm again.

[Thunder44]

12z EURO



The EURO has at the 12z run a weak Karen and at the end of run it has the weak low near the Bahamas.

The 12z ECMWF really backed of intensifying Karen north of Leeward Islands. Only the 12z CMC and NOGAPS appear to have a strong storm.

[stu]

That is because the Karen system is toast - often we need to look at real world observations to see what is happerning and not go "as gospel" what the models say.

We can all see what the presention of Karen is right now - a highy sheared and struggling (soon to be defunct) system.

RIP Karen tomorrow (saturday)

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

I've never seen any sort of disturbance make a 90 degree turn, but this one appears to have made two! First to the right, which was MORE than a 90 degree turn, and now a left turn about 12 hours later.

[orion]

Yeah, zoom out on the satellite loop and look at that band of very fast-moving cirrus racing from St. Lucia ENE toward the center of Karen. It's getting blasted now.

RGB makes it easy to see those high cirrus wxman is talking about and the shear that's trying to rip into Karen. I sometimes forget about the RGB when I'm looking at visible and WV, but it does a nice job of separating the high level clouds from the low level clouds.

[cycloneye]

[Thunder44]

That is because the Karen system is toast - often we need to look at real world observations to see what is happerning and not go "as gospel" what the models say.

We can all see what the presention of Karen is right now - a highy sheared and struggling (soon to be defunct) system.

RIP Karen tomorrow (saturday)

Her "presentation" today was expected. But it may becoming more likely now Karen will remain a weak system.