CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Aric Dunn]

not sure if anyone saw the 06z HWRF

pressure 920MB almost over PR

[windstorm99]

No ridge there...

[ekal]

The things are slowly,but surely in place for a hurricane to impact the east carribean...and i'am watching carefully this cyclone,as i do for each system in this location with the present track,in this time of the year..
Wait and see,and do prepared(my hurricane supplies are always ready ,because in 50 years i saw so much!!!!!)
Will keep you informed of the weather right there,if condition required...Can someone explain me carefully,because i'am not of english languge, how to send images(the Guadeloupe radar).....

Hi Huc!

1) When you have an image that you want to post, right click on the image, and then left click on "properties" in the menu.

2) You will see a URL in the address line of the window that opens. Highlight the complete URL with your mouse, and then copy it (right click on the highlighted text, then copy).

3) When you post a reply, click the button that says "Img," located above the message window. You will then see two boxes. To post the image, just paste the URL between them.

Let me know if that works. Best to you as you make your preparations, and hopefully, they are not needed in the end.

[Wx_Warrior]

Any bets on where 18z takes it?

[Sjones]

This model will jump from place to place through Friday/Saturday.

The problem is that you will have all the media (read:news), from Texas to FL in hysteria, as its the first real "threat" of the season, assuming TD5 to be/Erin doesn't take the headlines first!

The problem is that you (tgenius) are not a meterologist. Anyway that's off topic, back on with the show

[windstorm99]

12z CMC changes its tune a bit and now it brings Dean on a more WNW to NW track until the end of the run, then begins to bend it west.

[Steve]

Ridging shows up pretty well at 700mb

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_204l.gif

at 500, you can see a trough off the US East Coast (assumption being there is a ridge underneath there that probably extends to Spain).

It also shows up at 850mb (well into the Southeast U.S. and A which is probably why it wants to take it up to Minnesota/Wisconsin):

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_204l.gif

Doesn't show up at 200, 300 or 250mb (possibly an ULL involved in the deeper ridge):

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_204l.gif

Waiting game is on.

Steve

[destruction92]

This model will jump from place to place through Friday/Saturday.

The problem is that you will have all the media (read:news), from Texas to FL in hysteria, as its the first real "threat" of the season, assuming TD5 to be/Erin doesn't take the headlines first!

The problem is that you (tgenius) are not a meterologist. Anyway that's off topic, back on with the show

The problem is that this is a show. Whenever the GFS hints at a Texas landfall, people start crediting it...but then when GFS predicts Dean out to sea or skirting NC, then most of the people here say that it is bogus.

Funny how people stop ranting at the GFS when it conveniently changes its track back to Texas (only to be followed thereafter by another major shift and criticism re-emerging).

The GFS has not trended anywhere yet except a swath from Brownsville to the eastern Atlantic Ocean. I am tired of flip-floppers, both people and models.

Once there is some consistency and accurate initialization of speed and location, then I am willing to give more credence to the GFS 100+ hours ahead.

[jasons2k]

"Massive ridge"? Please inform me where you see a massive ridge in NOAA's Surface Analysis map? http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA.shtml

Dude, you're looking at the wrong layers. You won't see it on that map.

Check out the upper ridge still over the SW Atlantic & SE US. This is why Dean won't be charging up the EC like in yesterday's runs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml

You have been informed

[Steve]

>>The visible looks ominous... there's no going back now, this is on it's way to being our first hurricane.

It has that Pacific look to it with the convection mostly with the southern part of the system and also looks quite a bit like Sepat did a day or two ago IMHO.

Steve

[windstorm99]

12z CMC has been posted when possible make note on the thread.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

In all the criticism of the GFS on it's varied solutions long range no one is mentioning that for the last 6 runs it has been very consistant in forecasting a hit on the northern leewards with just a trend slightly to the left over the last few runs.

[Dean4Storms]

Well I'd say the average landfall location now for the GFS is FL/GA border.

[Steve]

Canadian looks interesting and mirrors the WPAC. It's bringing an elongated N-S ridge down from Canada to merge up with the Bermuda High. = Westward bound.

>>The problem is that this is a show. Whenever the GFS hints at a Texas landfall, people start crediting it...but then when GFS predicts Dean out to sea or skirting NC, then most of the people here say that it is bogus.

I say that all the time. I coined the term STATECASTING. I think there should be a sub-sub forum where people can argue between Texas and North Carolina and Texas and Florida. People always jump on the runs that impact them. It's a weather forum phenominon not exclusive to Storm2k. In fact, if I was a moderator, it would be open to anyone, but those who I thought were guilty, I'd temporarily ban them to fight out model runs in that particular area until things were more conclusive. That way people could keep score on the worst offenders and determine if they had any real credibility.



Steve

[Derek Ortt]

Dean looks great on vis

But is IR was all we had, this thing would not even be classified as a depression. Its really just holding its own as a weak TS at the moment

[Dean4Storms]

Well, it is becoming more ominous that between the tropical model consensus and now more and more of the globals that a trip into the Carib. is becoming more likely and an Atlantic Fish is becoming less likely.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

The problem is that you will have all the media (read:news), from Texas to FL in hysteria, as its the first real "threat" of the season, assuming TD5 to be/Erin doesn't take the headlines first![/quote]


The problem is that you (tgenius) are not a meterologist. Anyway that's off topic, back on with the show[/quote]

There can be no such thing as consistancy in a ten day model forecast.

The problem is that this is a show. Whenever the GFS hints at a Texas landfall, people start crediting it...but then when GFS predicts Dean out to sea or skirting NC, then most of the people here say that it is bogus.

Funny how people stop ranting at the GFS when it conveniently changes its track back to Texas (only to be followed thereafter by another major shift and criticism re-emerging).

The GFS has not trended anywhere yet except a swath from Brownsville to the eastern Atlantic Ocean. I am tired of flip-floppers, both people and models.

Once there is some consistency and accurate initialization of speed and location, then I am willing to give more credence to the GFS 100+ hours ahead.[/quote]

[Dean4Storms]

Canadian looks interesting and mirrors the WPAC. It's bringing an elongated N-S ridge down from Canada to merge up with the Bermuda High. = Westward bound.

>>The problem is that this is a show. Whenever the GFS hints at a Texas landfall, people start crediting it...but then when GFS predicts Dean out to sea or skirting NC, then most of the people here say that it is bogus.

I say that all the time. I coined the term STATECASTING. I think there should be a sub-sub forum where people can argue between Texas and North Carolina and Texas and Florida. People always jump on the runs that impact them. It's a weather forum phenominon not exclusive to Storm2k. In fact, if I was a moderator, it would be open to anyone, but those who I thought were guilty, I'd temporarily ban them to fight out model runs in that particular area until things were more conclusive. That way people could keep score on the worst offenders and determine if they had any real credibility.



Steve

This is one Floridian who hopes it goes out to sea or to Texas or anywhere else but here. I've already had to replace my homeowners insurance because AllState bailed.

[Steve]

>>This is one Floridian who hopes it goes out to sea or to Texas or anywhere else but here. I've already had to replace my homeowners insurance because AllState bailed.

Indeed. I lost my house, all my stuff and I'm still couch surfing at my sister's house in the bayou waiting for my exwife to rebuild our house and buy me out (probably December at the earliest). Let 'em have it.

Steve

[DESTRUCTION5]

Canadian looks interesting and mirrors the WPAC. It's bringing an elongated N-S ridge down from Canada to merge up with the Bermuda High. = Westward bound.

>>The problem is that this is a show. Whenever the GFS hints at a Texas landfall, people start crediting it...but then when GFS predicts Dean out to sea or skirting NC, then most of the people here say that it is bogus.

I say that all the time. I coined the term STATECASTING. I think there should be a sub-sub forum where people can argue between Texas and North Carolina and Texas and Florida. People always jump on the runs that impact them. It's a weather forum phenominon not exclusive to Storm2k. In fact, if I was a moderator, it would be open to anyone, but those who I thought were guilty, I'd temporarily ban them to fight out model runs in that particular area until things were more conclusive. That way people could keep score on the worst offenders and determine if they had any real credibility.



Steve

This is one Floridian who hopes it goes out to sea or to Texas or anywhere else but here. I've already had to replace my homeowners insurance because AllState bailed.

Tell me about it..FL's Economy is in Horrible shape right now and this would not help...Not looking for any thing to do with dean here...