TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[Homey]

Hugo hit in late September (the 22nd, I think).

[boca]

I thought Steve Weagle was on drugs last night,he probably has a point with it moving so slowly a trough will probably catch it being in mid Sept. I'm not to concerned as of right now till it gets closer next week. By then maybe a ULL east of Florida is suppossed to develop and push TD8 north. Will see next week these models flip flop day by day.

[Blown Away]

There have been a number of mid-late September storms that hit SFL. I have a feeling this will be close for SFL. I bet Ingrid will be near 75W before crossing 25N, like Floyd close. Not sure if it is better for SFL if TD8 moves slow or fast.

[gatorcane]

Blown_away I have not written this off yet.

In fact you are correct. If you go back to the 1920s and 1940s there have been a number of mid to late september CV hits for South Florida...

so no doubt it has a chance but I am unsure right now...lets see if it makes it to the Hebert box.

[Sanibel]

How can shear being pushing the convection SW if the wisps of clouds coming off the storm on satellite are moving north?

[Buck]

The 11pm advisory is coming in kinda late... they might be upgrading it.

[windstorm99]

...Depression has not strengthened yet...
At 1100 PM AST...0300z...the center of Tropical Depression Eight was
located near latitude 13.4 north...longitude 46.4 west or about 1005
miles...1620 km...east of the Lesser Antilles.

The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph...19 km/hr...
and a westward to west-northwestward motion with some decrease in
forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and
the depression could become a tropical storm by Thursday.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.

Repeating the 1100 PM AST position...13.4 N...46.4 W. Movement
toward...west near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...35 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1006 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
500 am AST.

$$
Forecaster Landsea/Pasch

[shannon]

Boca- what did steve weagle say? I didnt get to see it. He was pretty right on w/ Francis whereas some of his colleagues weren't.

[cycloneye]

No upgrade at 11.Track a little south than 5 PM.

[Buck]

Nope...

000
WTNT33 KNHC 130258
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007
1100 PM AST WED SEP 12 2007

...DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1005
MILES...1620 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
AND A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...13.4 N...46.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH

[tolakram]

How can shear being pushing the convection SW if the wisps of clouds coming off the storm on satellite are moving north?

Depends on the level of the winds. I'm not sure what altitude wisps you're talking about.

[windstorm99]

Discussion...

the depression has not appreciably changed in its convective
organization or estimated intensity since this afternoon. While
Dvorak...ADT...and AMSU estimates are at minimal tropical storm
intensity...SSMI and ssmis microwave imagery suggests instead that
the center of the system is offset on the northeast side of the
convection. Upper tropospheric motion vectors show that there
remains some moderate northeasterly shear that continues to impact
the system. Since the estimated center is not well embedded within
the convection...this indicates that the system remains a tropical
depression at this time.
TD eight is south of a weak deep layered ridge which is currently
providing a steering of about 280/10...slightly more westward than
indicated in the previous advisory. All of the global and regional
models show the cyclone slowing between 24 and 48 hours in response
to the influence of an mid- to upper-level trough that is currently
north of 25n at the same longitude of the depression. The trough
should cutoff and retrograde west-southwestward. This has the
combined effect of weakening the west-northwestward steering as
well as inducing rather strong southwesterly shear at the longer
time periods. The forecast track is the consensus of the
GFS...UKMET...GFDL...and hwrf models and is slightly south of the
previous official forecast. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models are
discounted as they unrealistically take the depression northward
almost immediately.
Though the depression is over warm 28c waters...none of the
intensity guidance takes TD eight to a hurricane in the next five
days. This may be due to the close proximity to rather dry air
just to the north and west of the system in the early time periods
and the rather sharp increase in shear at the later time periods.
The intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS and lge models through
three days and a blend of these two with the GFDL and hwrf models
at days four and five.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 13/0300z 13.4n 46.4w 30 kt
12hr VT 13/1200z 13.9n 47.6w 35 kt
24hr VT 14/0000z 14.3n 48.6w 40 kt
36hr VT 14/1200z 14.6n 49.5w 45 kt
48hr VT 15/0000z 15.0n 50.6w 50 kt
72hr VT 16/0000z 16.0n 53.5w 55 kt
96hr VT 17/0000z 17.0n 56.5w 50 kt
120hr VT 18/0000z 18.0n 59.0w 45 kt

$$
forecaster Landsea/Pasch

[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

The shortwave clearly shows it reorganizing around the center again. Starting to look better in my opinion.

[Brent]

45 kt in 120 hours? Very interesting... I tend to think it will be stronger than that.

[skufful]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

11:00 nhc cone

[windstorm99]

[cycloneye]

Derek,what do you think of the lowering of intensity by NHC to 45kts?

[aguaviva]

Derek- how reliable is the NHC's prediction of a lower intensity storm at the end of the period? Any caveats to that theory?

[Buck]

Is the forcast shear really going to keep it that weak for that long?

[windstorm99]

Updated accuweather track....