Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[Steve]

>>Clearly this system hasn't lived up to the potential that was forecast and looks like it probably won't either. NOw I'll go take my pill And when you've taken yours you might wanta check out the Caribb.

hahaha. The final few chapters remain to be written. And I'll take my medicine like a man if I need to. As far as the Caribbean, it looks like a wave is going to pile in the area. Would be intersting (however unlikely) if the eventual solution between both entities ends up resembling the Nari/Wipha solution just to have another recorded time when such an event occurred.

Steve

[MGC]

I have not totally written 93L off yet. There is still a chance of a TD, weak TS or some kind of hybrid. It just not lived up to the hype the media has given it......MGC

[jlauderdal]

It's a little bit funny that a surface low is finally developing in the GOM and NOW people are giving up on it.

two days ago the models were showing that thursday would be the day it emerges and starts to develop and that is what its doing right on schedule.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hmmm, I'd have expected to see the automated HDOBs from the plane warming up at Keesler by now. I thought the scheduled arrival time was 12:30 pm EDT. I know it isn't a very long flight, but still...

OK, I see a HDOB now, looks like the plane is leaving Keesler. Have to open a new window for the recon discussion thread soon.

[Kludge]

This isn't over yet, I didn't really expect anything to really get going till Friday anyway. A system in this setup will take longer, but once it gets going it could develop rapidly. Things will start popping down there late this afternoon or this evening IMO.

I tend to agree. Something I'm finding to be very confusing as I scroll through this thread is the dismissal of the potential of 93L since "it will take days for it to become warm core, and it doesn't have that much time". So far, I don't see much movement. I would think that if it continues to stall, wouldn't that (1) give it time to make the transition to warm core, and (2) give the high pressure to the north more time to build...which would preclude nortward motion, and provide even more time to get its act together?

[xironman]

I agree DMAX tomorrow will be the time when this thing will really come together or flop. Until then it is just a precursor.

[Stormcenter]

What ever it becomes is really looking like a NO storm...all models have latched on to that idea now except Euro which I would bet will be next..

Yeah like "NO" storm,"NO" development and "NO" problem.

Seriously though, this (93L or whatever) really has never had much potential to begin
with. It was always going to be dealing with dry air and shear no matter what
the models were spitting out. Now after saying that, I still would NOT write off this or any tropical disturbance/system until it has completely dissapated. We all know strange things have happened in the tropics..

[beachbum_al]

One thing I have learned is not to let your guard down no matter what it might look like at the present time.

[HURAKAN]

latest:



I want rain!!!

[DESTRUCTION5]

What ever it becomes is really looking like a NO storm...all models have latched on to that idea now except Euro which I would bet will be next..

Yeah like "NO" storm,"NO" development and "NO" problem.

Seriously though, this (93L or whatever) really has never had much potential to begin
with. It was always going to be dealing with dry air and shear no matter what
the models were spitting out. Now after saying that, I still would NOT write off this or any tropical disturbance/system until it has completely dissapated. We all know strange things have happened in the tropics..

umm NO = New Orleans People..Sorry for the confusion..

[Kennethb]

If I recall, Thursday was the day for the transfer from cold core to warm core. Too, the water is warm and with a set up being guided more by a ridge than a trough, I see this slowly coming together. Patience.

[Stormcenter]

What ever it becomes is really looking like a NO storm...all models have latched on to that idea now except Euro which I would bet will be next..

Yeah like "NO" storm,"NO" development and "NO" problem.

Seriously though, this (93L or whatever) really has never had much potential to begin
with. It was always going to be dealing with dry air and shear no matter what
the models were spitting out. Now after saying that, I still would NOT write off this or any tropical disturbance/system until it has completely dissapated. We all know strange things have happened in the tropics..

umm NO = New Orleans People..Sorry for the confusion..

I know I was just kidding with you.

[LaBreeze]

And remember folks, Humberto just took 14 hours to go from nothing to hurricane (and close to land at that).

[HURAKAN]

And remember folks, Humberto just took 14 hours to go from nothing to hurricane (and close to land at that).

Humberto was an anomaly, not the rule. You can't compare every storm with Humberto or Alicia or the Labor Day Hurricane.

[fci]

Yesterday Derek posted:

depression by 11 tonight? Maybe by 11 p.m. Friday. This si currently light years away from TD status

So, it is right on schedule.
I know people expect to see RI all the time but it just doesn't happen that often.

[Sabanic]

And remember folks, Humberto just took 14 hours to go from nothing to hurricane (and close to land at that).

Humberto was an anomaly, not the rule. You can't compare every storm with Humberto or Alicia or the Labor Day Hurricane.

Think she just meant it "Can" happen, and the tropics can be anything but predictable.

[LaBreeze]

No one is comparing Humberto with any other storm, just thought that I would state that "anything can happen"- I suppose I should have made myself a bit more clear - sorry.

[MGC]

Any development will be slow to occur.....very slow.......MGC

[Stormcenter]

And remember folks, Humberto just took 14 hours to go from nothing to hurricane (and close to land at that).

Humberto was a warm core system from the get go this is not.

[skysummit]

I haven't been around much in the past couple hours. Any new updates from the pros? Are they still sticking to SW La, or are they waiting to see the 12z EURO?