Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[cycloneye]

798
WTNT42 KNHC 282032
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007

NOT SURPRISINGLY...THIS AFTERNOON...KAREN IS ATTEMPTING TO MAKE A
COMEBACK. DEEP CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. A 1328Z ASCAT OVERPASS HAPPENED TO CAPTURE THE
MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM AND INDICATED 30 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. HOWEVER...THIS PARTICULAR PASS WAS A FEW HOURS BEFORE
THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY BEGAN TO EXPAND AND INTENSIFY. THE DVORAK
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 35 KT AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT.

THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND THE LGEM...INDICATING WEAKENING
UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THEN LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH DAY 5...DUE TO AN UNFAVORABLE
UPPER WIND ENVIRONMENT.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/10. THE UNPREDICTED TEMPORARY
NORTHWARD MOTION COULD BE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW- LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN TROPICAL DEPRESSION
14 AND KAREN AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH A TROUGH WEST OF THE CYCLONE.
CONSEQUENTLY...IT IS UNCLEAR IF OR WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL RETURN TO
ITS PREVIOUS NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST. THEREFORE...BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND THE GFDL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS A TURN BACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THE MODELS HAVE SPLIT INTO TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
AGAIN...WITH THE GFS AND THE HWRF INDICATING MORE OF A NORTHWARD
MOTION AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE OTHER
CLUSTER CONSISTS OF THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND NOGAPS WHICH REFLECTS A
TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. BASED ON THE CONSTANT
INCONSISTENCIES FROM ONE MODEL RUN TO THE OTHER...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS BASED ON A DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS ADJUSTED TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THIS MORNING'S NORTHWARD
JOG.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 16.4N 49.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 17.1N 50.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 18.2N 52.4W 30 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 19.2N 53.7W 30 KT
48HR VT 30/1800Z 20.3N 55.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 22.5N 57.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 02/1800Z 24.0N 59.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 03/1800Z 25.5N 61.5W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

[sfwx]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 282032
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007

NOT SURPRISINGLY...THIS AFTERNOON...KAREN IS ATTEMPTING TO MAKE A
COMEBACK. DEEP CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. A 1328Z ASCAT OVERPASS HAPPENED TO CAPTURE THE
MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM AND INDICATED 30 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. HOWEVER...THIS PARTICULAR PASS WAS A FEW HOURS BEFORE
THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY BEGAN TO EXPAND AND INTENSIFY. THE DVORAK
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 35 KT AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT.

THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND THE LGEM...INDICATING WEAKENING
UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THEN LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH DAY 5...DUE TO AN UNFAVORABLE
UPPER WIND ENVIRONMENT.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/10. THE UNPREDICTED TEMPORARY
NORTHWARD MOTION COULD BE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW- LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN TROPICAL DEPRESSION
14 AND KAREN AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH A TROUGH WEST OF THE CYCLONE.
CONSEQUENTLY...IT IS UNCLEAR IF OR WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL RETURN TO
ITS PREVIOUS NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST. THEREFORE...BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND THE GFDL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS A TURN BACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS. THE MODELS HAVE SPLIT INTO TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
AGAIN...WITH THE GFS AND THE HWRF INDICATING MORE OF A NORTHWARD
MOTION AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE OTHER
CLUSTER CONSISTS OF THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND NOGAPS WHICH REFLECTS A
TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. BASED ON THE CONSTANT
INCONSISTENCIES FROM ONE MODEL RUN TO THE OTHER...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS BASED ON A DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS ADJUSTED TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THIS MORNING'S NORTHWARD
JOG.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 16.4N 49.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 17.1N 50.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 18.2N 52.4W 30 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 19.2N 53.7W 30 KT
48HR VT 30/1800Z 20.3N 55.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 22.5N 57.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 02/1800Z 24.0N 59.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 03/1800Z 25.5N 61.5W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

[cycloneye]

The big bend to the west is less prominent now.

[CrazyC83]

Talk about a nightmare to predict now. Karen has fooled just about everyone by going due north...

[bucman1]

At this time the bend is not that far westbut I am sure that will change one way or another in the next 5 days.

[CrazyC83]

At this time the bend is not that far westbut I am sure that will change one way or another in the next 5 days.

Reminds me of Irene (2005) at this point. No one knew what she was up to.

[deltadog03]

Ya, it appears that karen is toast...

[wxman57]

I would disagree that Karen is "making a comeback" per the NHC discussion. It did earlier this morning, but in the last few hours the shear has increased and it looks more like an open wave than a TS/TD. In any case, Karen won't be any threat to land, as it'll probably be completely ripped apart overnight.

[jaxfladude]

I would disagree that Karen is "making a comeback" per the NHC discussion. It did earlier this morning, but in the last few hours the shear has increased and it looks more like an open wave than a TS/TD. In any case, Karen won't be any threat to land, as it'll probably be completely ripped apart overnight.

BYE, BYE, KAREN, SEE YOU IN 2013, IF AND HOPEFULLY NOT, THE SEASON PRODUCES ENOUGH NAMED STORMS TO REACH "K"!!!
*stops yelling*

[HURAKAN]

BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL KAREN ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 15
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL122007
500 PM EDT VIERNES 28 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2007

...KAREN A PENAS ES UN TORMENTA TROPICAL...

$$
PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS/AVILA

______________________________

Did Avila translate this? "Tormenta" is feminine, therefore, it's "una," "un" is masculine, which then makes no sense when you read it.

This is a problem that English doesn't have!!! "The" covers this problem.

______________________________

a penas: hardly

apenas: barely

Which one did they meant to use???

Oh,

TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
500 PM AST FRI SEP 28 2007

...KAREN BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...

[curtadams]

Looks to me like the LLC has become separated from all the convection and turned west. When it went into the heavy shear the MLC couldn't follow and now that it's disconnected it's going with the low level flow.

[Cuber]

a penas: hardly

apenas: barely

Which one did they meant to use???

Oh,

TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
500 PM AST FRI SEP 28 2007

...KAREN BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...

nah Avila just using south Florida slang for "pain in the a**"

[CrazyC83]

Could it be a case of a center relocation?

[Thunder44]

On the latest satellite imagery it does appear the low has gotten broader and enlogated.

[Ed Mahmoud]

BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL KAREN ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 15
NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL122007
500 PM EDT VIERNES 28 DE SEPTIEMBRE DE 2007

...KAREN A PENAS ES UN TORMENTA TROPICAL...

$$
PRONOSTICADOR ROBERTS/AVILA

______________________________

Did Avila translate this? "Tormenta" is feminine, therefore, it's "una," "un" is masculine, which then makes no sense when you read it.

This is a problem that English doesn't have!!! "The" covers this problem.

______________________________

a penas: hardly

apenas: barely

Which one did they meant to use???

Oh,

TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
500 PM AST FRI SEP 28 2007

...KAREN BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...

I think NWS San Juan does the translations.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Yup

*Spanish translations courtesy of the NWS San Juan Weather Forecast Office

On NHC homepage.

[CrazyC83]

One thing to remember: even if Karen degenerates into a wave, the remnants will need to still be monitored for redevelopment in the days ahead.

[HURAKAN]

Yup

*Spanish translations courtesy of the NWS San Juan Weather Forecast Office

On NHC homepage.

That's even worse.

[artist]

Hurakan - you can look at hardly and barely as being similar.
this is from http://www.thefreedictionary.com/hardly -
hard·ly (härdl)
adv.
1. Barely; just.
2. To almost no degree; almost not: I could hardly hear the speaker.
3. Probably or almost surely not: "Easily was a man made an infidel, but hardly might he be converted to another faith" T.E. Lawrence.
4. With severity; harshly.
5. With great difficulty; painfully.

[jaxfladude]

One thing to remember: even if Karen degenerates into a wave, the remnants will need to still be monitored for redevelopment in the days ahead.

Please do not give Karen any ideas!!!