Hurricane Félix: RECON Discussion

[Scorpion]

Thank god theres nothing in the way of this beast... I cannot imagine 163 kt surface winds

[HURAKAN]

053
WTNT31 KNHC 022359
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

...FELIX NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT FELIX
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST OR ABOUT 390 MILES...
625 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE TO BE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE
DATA IS 934 MB...27.58 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...13.8 N...72.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN

[thunderchief]

EXTREME TURB NE EYEWALL


i assume, since they continued the mission, the plane isnt badly damaged...

[Scorpion]

Uhhh we need a plane in there.. this is historic

[Brent]

BECAUSE OF THE EXTREME TURBULENCE AND
GROUPEL THAT THE AIRCRAFT EXPERIENCED...THE MISSION IS BEING
ABORTED AND THE AIRCRAFT IS RETURNING TO ST. CROIX.

[Scorpion]

What does groupel mean?

[curtadams]

Mission aborted due to dangerous conditions: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2039.shtml?

You know it's bad when the Hurricane Hunters have to abort.

[thunderchief]

wow... i guess the plane is damaged...

graupel=hail

[Scorpion]

Extreme turbulence can compromise the wing structure of an aircraft, so I can see why they're turning around. I really hope they get another plane in there quick though.

[curtadams]

I suspect the plane is not damaged; I think they would have said if it was. But there's a risk, so they need to stay out.

[WindRunner]

AF scheduled to go in next . . . so yes, they should/might be able to take more . . . I sure as heck hope so . . .

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

They said at least 145 knots it is likely more then that. We only got one pass through the northeast. I would not be suprized if the 163 knot surface was right.

[senorpepr]

AF scheduled to go in next . . . so yes, they should/might be able to take more . . . I sure as heck hope so . . .

I would tend to believe the WC-130J can stand more "slapping around" than the P-3. Of course, crew safety is paramount.

[Derek Ortt]

The P3 is very stable. The Rita flight I was (NOAA 43) on had little turbulence... didn't feel much even in the eyewall. The day before, there was turbulence, and near vomiting, but the mission was still completed

Also, NOAA 42 was descending well below the 700mb level in the eyewall

[senorpepr]

The P3 is very stable. The Rita flight I was (NOAA 43) on had little turbulence... didn't feel much even in the eyewall. The day before, there was turbulence, and near vomiting, but the mission was still completed

Also, NOAA 42 was descending well below the 700mb level in the eyewall

Don't get me wrong... I'm not discounting the P-3--it's a very sturdy aircraft. I'm only comparing between the two aircraft.

[brunota2003]

For anyone interested (or doesnt quite understand) what extreme turbulence can do to an aircraft, here is an interesting read about a Hurricane Hunter flight into Hurricane Hugo:
http://www.weatherunderground.com/education/hugo1.asp
However, that is not the worst as, thankfully, the plane was able to limp back to base.

[MGC]

163KTS surface equals 187.45MPH. I don't believe it!...MGC

[miamicanes177]

000
URNT12 KWBC 022347
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 2/2307Z
B. 13 DEG 40 MIN N
72 DEG 43 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2601 M
D. 163 KT
E. 045 DEG 12 NM
F. 142 DEG 152 KT
G. 056 DEG 12 NM
H. 936 MB
I. 25 C/2745 M
J. 26 C/2806 M
K. 4 C/NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C15
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 0906A FELIX OB 10 AL062007
MAX FL WIND 152 KT NE QUAD 2252Z
LIGHTNING ALL QUADS
EXTREME TURBULENCE NE EYEWALL
SFMR WINDS 163 KTS NE EYEWALL
SLP FROM DROPSONDE

Updated VDM and put "lightning in all quads". This thing is straight from hell

[WindRunner]

163KTS surface equals 187.45MPH. I don't believe it!...MGC

Neither did TPC . . . as it was probably a rain/hail inflated reading . . .

[thunderchief]

the C-130 swan 38 that disapeared in the pacific, do you AF guys know what altitude they would probably have been at?