Tropical Depression INGRID: Global & BAM Models

[Blown Away]

Just a quick drawing of what the 12z HWRF is showing....not to scale

Does it go through the Hebert Box, I know this rule is not 100% but it is a good indicator for SFL.

[gatorcane]

Yes it does go through the Hebert box based on that model.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

possible tracks

frances
floyd
1926 storm
isabel

trough versus ridge scenario...BIG time wait and see...

[sunnyday]

Since some of the models show it coming in the general direction of Florida, I feel safer because things usually change later on. Let's hope this one bothers no one.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I agree. When models show early landfall. You can rest assured your safe. Models really can't grasp tropical disturbances that are in an early stage of development. Have to wait till it gets its act together. Then the models will have somewhat of a better grip on its path.

[Nimbus]

934 MB's yipes! At least that model run has the storm going north of our friends in the islands. There should be a trough to steer this away from Florida and the southeast coast but it could get uncomfortably close.

[destruction92]

934 MB's yipes! At least that model run has the storm going north of our friends in the islands. There should be a trough to steer this away from Florida and the southeast coast but it could get uncomfortably close.

And it definitely is NOT a threat to the gulf coast.

[canegrl04]

934 MB's yipes! At least that model run has the storm going north of our friends in the islands. There should be a trough to steer this away from Florida and the southeast coast but it could get uncomfortably close.

And it definitely is NOT a threat to the gulf coast.

Its reckless to make that pronoucement this early

[Extremeweatherguy]

934 MB's yipes! At least that model run has the storm going north of our friends in the islands. There should be a trough to steer this away from Florida and the southeast coast but it could get uncomfortably close.

And it definitely is NOT a threat to the gulf coast.

destruction...where do you live? It seems like recently you have really been pushing this as being NOT a gulf coast threat and more of an east coast threat. I may be wrong, but it seems to me that you either..

A.) live along the gulf coast and are biased toward not wanting a storm

or

B.) live along the east coast and really do want a storm.

Now this suspicion could be wrong, but the use of statements such as "And it is definitely NOT a threat to the gulf coast" is a bit foolish IMO...especially with nothing to back them up. ATM, there is really no way to know for sure where 91L will go in the long term. The chances of it hitting Florida or the east coast are probably just as high as it hitting along the Gulf coast. In fact, a double landfall (one in FL and then one along the gulf coast) is not out of the question either. We have lots of time to watch this though, and we should have a better handle on things by the weekend. I just do not think any place should be ruled out or deemed "safe" right now. It is way too early for that.

[perk]

934 MB's yipes! At least that model run has the storm going north of our friends in the islands. There should be a trough to steer this away from Florida and the southeast coast but it could get uncomfortably close.

And it definitely is NOT a threat to the gulf coast.

(DEFINITELY NOT A THREAT TO THE GULF COAST) That's an awfully strong statement. Care to back it up with fact.

[JTD]

Umm,

Looking at some models, this storm could very possibly hit the east coast of Florida and if it hits Florida under a type of Indian summer high, it could most certainly enter the GOM.

So a GOM threat is not out of the question at all IMO.

[Pearl River]

Does Hurricane Georges ring a bell????? September 15-October 1, 1998 , made it to the Gulf Coast.

[Gustywind]

Does Hurricane Georges ring a bell????? September 15-October 1, 1998 , made it to the Gulf Coast.

Are you sure??? I tkink you're wrong or my head deceiving me...passes on antigua 22 september...quite impossible 15th september in the GULF COAST! Pass in the gulf coast 28 /29! no matter

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 112323
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 11

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.8 41.6 305./ 8.0
6 12.1 42.7 286./11.3
12 12.1 43.0 277./ 2.4
18 12.5 44.2 285./12.9
24 12.5 44.9 273./ 6.8
30 12.9 45.3 315./ 5.6
36 13.4 45.9 312./ 7.7
42 13.8 46.6 299./ 7.6
48 14.1 47.5 285./ 9.2
54 14.2 47.7 313./ 2.2
60 14.8 48.2 316./ 7.9
66 15.2 49.1 293./ 9.3
72 15.9 49.5 333./ 7.8
78 16.3 50.3 297./ 8.8
84 16.9 51.1 308./ 9.6
90 17.2 52.2 286./11.6
96 17.3 53.4 274./11.3
102 17.6 54.5 285./10.9
108 17.8 55.6 283./10.5
114 18.0 56.5 280./ 8.5
120 18.0 57.4 272./ 8.8
126 18.0 58.5 267./10.9


I dont like this 18z GFDL track.



GFDL is the blue line.

[meteorologyman]

:cheesy:

Does Hurricane Georges ring a bell????? September 15-October 1, 1998 , made it to the Gulf Coast.

Are you sure??? I tkink you're wrong or my head deceiving me...passes on antigua 22 september...quite impossible 15th september in the GULF COAST! Pass in the gulf coast 28 /29! no matter

Katrina also went across Florida as weak Hurricane before becoming a monster in the Gulf

[ROCK]

Where is the ignore button on here? this is the third post that he / she has come out with something totally absurd with no facts / data to back up such a claim.....EWG, its pretty close to trolling / looking for attention IMO...

[Rainband]

Where is the ignore button on here? this is the third post that he / she has come out with something totally absurd with no facts / data to back up such a claim.....EWG, its pretty close to trolling / looking for attention IMO...

And being watched quite close

[sunnyday]

Would one of you please give me just an approximate date when this possible future storm would likely be close to the U. S.? I understand that there are any number of factors involved, but I would appreciate some idea of the time involved.
Thanks so much.

[Recurve]

somebody mentioned Hebert box. Would have to track directly north of Puerto Rico to go through H1 or H2. Not that the models aren't suggesting that, but none go that far west yet, unless I missed something.

[destruction92]

934 MB's yipes! At least that model run has the storm going north of our friends in the islands. There should be a trough to steer this away from Florida and the southeast coast but it could get uncomfortably close.

With the information you supplied, an objective reader can infer that the worst case scenario for a U.S. mainland landfall is that 91L comes "uncomfortably close" to the east coast...with that said, I believe it is very reasonable to say that it is highly unlikely that 91L will affect the Gulf Coast. It has a better chance of being a fish than trekking all the way to western GOM, IMO. There is already a cold front stretched out to the Texas coast line.

Every time I suggest a system may not be a gulf threat I get asked questions like "What is your issue?" and "Have you lost your mind?"...I do not think my opinions are unreasonable because I am using information from the global model consensus and upper level air patterns to make what I think is an informed or at least respectable opinion.

Now if you do not like what I am suggesting or do not like how the current synoptics do not support a Gulf Coast threat with 91L, I suggest you go to the 90L thread...90L has the best chance to bring some "action" to the gulf coast.

By the way, I am not a Floridian, Carolinian, Texan, or any other southerner. I am a northerner who has been through several blizzards and who does not live anywhere near the Atlantic Ocean.