Tropical Depression TEN: Model Runs

[Extremeweatherguy]

36 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

Low moves into the eastern GOM.

[Extremeweatherguy]

36 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

Low moves into the eastern GOM.

[Stratosphere747]

Some of the earlier 0z models from the atcf output were trending to the west...

[cycloneye]

00z GFS 200mb at 42 hours

A little shear decrease.

[jhamps10]

00z GFS 200mb at 42 hours

A little shear decrease.

actually cycloneye, from what it was in the 0-30 hour images, it's a lot less of shear.

[Extremeweatherguy]

48 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

Low is getting stronger/better organized.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS 200mb at 54 hours

Where is the shear in the GOM? Almost none.Very light.Maybe to the extreme South GOM.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

00z GFS 200mb at 42 hours

A little shear decrease.

actually cycloneye, from what it was in the 0-30 hour images, it's a lot less of shear.

With gulf SSTS and oceanic heat content- A LOT less Shear means rapid
intensification is likely- Channel 11 meteorologist Dennis Phillips
just said this could be a significant hurricane. He mentioned
bigtime intensification, in the GOM.

[Extremeweatherguy]

54 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

[jhamps10]

also it appears to be slowing it down some, with basically ZERO shear on top, in other words, perfect conditions for development.

[Extremeweatherguy]

60 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif

[cycloneye]

00z GFS 200mb at 66 hours

Very light shear

[ROCK]

looks like LA to me on this run....

[Extremeweatherguy]

78 hrs = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078l.gif

strong ridge to the north though.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_078l.gif

I am kind of skeptical that this jump NW between 48 and 60 hours occurs that would put it on a course for NOLA. I am also still skeptical of the initial northward jog in the 0-18 hour timeframe. We shall see though.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS 200mb at 78 hours

Little shear in general in the northern GOM.

[jhamps10]

looks like it makes a landfall over lower plaqumens parish, now, will it follow inland, or follow the coast, slamming the La coast with the right front quad of the storm.

[Stormcenter]

You might need to trash this run (GFS). It does not look probable.

[skysummit]

You might need to trash this run (GFS). It does not look probable.

LOL.....may I ask why?

[ROCK]

looks like it makes a landfall over lower plaqumens parish, now, will it follow inland, or follow the coast, slamming the La coast with the right front quad of the storm.

ouch!!! for you LA folks....if that verifies...

[cycloneye]

00z GFS 200mb at 90 hours

Shear increases but system is already inland.