OLGA'S remnants : Discussions & Images

[Evil Jeremy]

I agree with boca. However, climatology hasn't really been our ally this year.

[boca]

I agree with boca. However, climatology hasn't really been our ally this year.

True and also 85 to 90 degree weather in December just isn't right for Florida along with lows in the 70's. We really need this system to head towards Florida to help the drought situation here.

[gatorcane]

Boca I agree this is the warmest Fall I have been through in South Florida......

We really need this system to head this way to drench us in rain but I doubt it will happen given climatology.

[Evil Jeremy]

well, the computer models are turning this down to Central America. Still, there are a few parts of the latest model runs that show uncertainty.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_94.gif

For starters, the HWRF turns NW at the end of its run, and its brother levels off after a general SW trend by the end of its run. The CMC, for what its worth, also shows a more northward motion inland. I also saw the full nogaps run which shows the ridge pulling away later in its run.

[gatorcane]

By the way this is the best looking invest we have had all year north of 15N in the Atlantic....

(not counting Noel which formed in late October against climatogy).

[cycloneye]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1004 AM AST MON DEC 10 2007

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-102000-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.A.0001.071210T1404Z-071211T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN AND ADJACENT ISLANDS-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...BAYAMON...
CAROLINA...CATANO...GUAYNABO...SAN JUAN...TOA ALTA...TOA BAJA...
TRUJILLO ALTO...CEIBA...CANOVANAS...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...LOIZA...
LUQUILLO...NAGUABO...RIO GRANDE...ARROYO...GUAYAMA...MAUNABO...
PATILLAS...SALINAS...YABUCOA...AGUAS BUENAS...CAGUAS...CAYEY...
CIDRA...COMERIO...GURABO...JUNCOS...LAS PIEDRAS...SAN LORENZO...
ARECIBO...BARCELONETA...DORADO...FLORIDA...MANATI...VEGA ALTA...
VEGA BAJA...AIBONITO...BARRANQUITAS...CIALES...COAMO...COROZAL...
JAYUYA...MOROVIS...NARANJITO...OROCOVIS...VILLALBA...GUAYANILLA...
JUANA DIAZ...YAUCO...PENUELAS...PONCE...SANTA ISABEL...AGUADILLA...
CAMUY...HATILLO...ISABELA...QUEBRADILLAS...ADJUNTAS...LARES...
LAS MARIAS...MARICAO...SABANA GRANDE...SAN SEBASTIAN...UTUADO...
AGUADA...ANASCO...HORMIGUEROS...MAYAGUEZ...MOCA...RINCON...
SAN GERMAN...CABO ROJO...GUANICA...LAJAS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...
ST THOMAS ST JOHN AND ADJACENT ISLANDS
1004 AM AST MON DEC 10 2007

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ALL OF PUERTO
RICO...INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

* THROUGH 4 PM AST TUESDAY AFTERNOON

* A SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE...LOCATED 250 MILES EAST PUERTO RICO
AT 8 AM AST...WILL BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND VERY GUSTY WINDS...TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...SMALL
STREAMS AND RIVERS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH AT
LEAST 4 PM AST TUESDAY.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED... AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR CABLE
TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

$$

SR/EM/AAS

They said here that is a Subtropical Disturbance.

[gatorcane]

what are the chances this system makes it into the NW Caribbean?

Sure looks like a July-August like wind flow across the Caribbean with East to West trades blowing strong

[bvigal]

Good morning, fellow tropwx enthusiasts! I've been reading yesterday and today, now have 2 comments:

Anyone using scatterometer diagrams should be careful to include the actual time of the data - it is NOT what is written on top of page, but the 'signature' of the pass time under the "swatch" in the picture. Many times I see pasted scat pages here that are hours old, if not from previous day.

While this may be mostly naked swirl over the low, it is more than a possible rain event. Here in the yachting capital of the world, at full peak season already, it is a potential hazard to lives and property - yachts are not cheap. 2000 charter boats, many with inexperienced bareboaters aboard (have credit card, we'll rent you a boat!), in 6-8ft seas with 35kt gusts (we've already had those last night) and not enough protected anchorages for them all and many moorings in places and conditions not suited to rough seas, up to 6000 cruise ship passengers a day many wanting to swim at the beaches (north shore), 24ft racing boats trying to return to other islands like PR after world cup racing here, yachts making crossings from the Med or east coast arriving daily, all spell potential hazards. Oh, and add to that the big attraction many of the bareboaters want to sail up and sniff around (also the press): the 600-guest wedding of Google owner out on Branson's Necker Island, that began a few days ago and culminated last night, with guests being ferried back and forth by boat, eventually boated across a N/S passage to airport to leave in their private jets.
This pic shows 12-14ft seas around North Sound of Virgin Gorda, and Necker is in that orange area, too.

[Evil Jeremy]

Convection continuing to fire near the center which is retreating back into the main blob of convection.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[boca]

I know all the models have this going pretty much into Central America just like most systems have this year theirs a front moving into Florida. Why would a system move SW into a flow of SW winds moving NE in front of a trough feature. I just don't get it. For Example if you have a cold front moving into the SE US their wouldn't be atropical system off the SE coast moving SW but moving NE.

[Evil Jeremy]

Call this -removed- if you want, but models are almost never reliable when a storm is weak with a displaced center.

I would also like to give kudos to JB over at Accuweather for catching this.

[boca]

I admit that I'm -removed- this system to Florida to give us the needed rain but as a weak system only.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[gatorcane]

I'll be in total shock if 94L makes into Central America especially in December without recurvature to the NE.

I agree remember Noel...many thought it would plow into Central America but had to keep shifting the track north..

I highly doubt it will hit central america.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 101418
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1018 AM AST MON DEC 10 2007

.UPDATE...EXPECT THE APPROACHING SUBTROPICAL
DISTURBANCE...PRESENTLY ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF PUERTO RICO...TO
INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY...RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS LATER TODAY AND PERSISTING
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. ALREADY HAD A REPORT OF A WIND GUST OF 42
KNOTS AT STT THIS MORNING...AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS THIS HIGH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS THIS DISTURBANCE GETS CLOSER TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AS A
RESULT...DECIDED TO EXTEND AND EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE
ALL OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH 4 PM AST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
AS THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKS OVER PUERTO RICO TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...SO ALSO DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 4 PM AST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.

[Evil Jeremy]

You know what, I hate you mother nature. We had a once in a life time chance for a ironic season ending. We could of had Noel near Christmas time! That would of been so funny! But no, mother nature, you had to ruin our fun lol.

[gatorcane]

NWS Miami monitoring the situation. Here is a snippet:

SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WESTWARD AND PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA THU-FRI...AS DEPICTED
BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. NHC IS MONITORING THIS FEATURE FOR
POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. WILL FOLLOW THE GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS
OF THIS FEATURE AND DEEP MOISTURE STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THOUGH...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS
BY THU NIGHT AND FRI.

[Ladybbird]

Good morning, I live on the beachfront on the north coast of the Dominican Republic, this TS looks like its going to hit us, will it be severe? Im very concerned for all the poor people here that havent recovered from the last one, any advice would be appreciated

[cycloneye]

Good morning, I live on the beachfront on the north coast of the Dominican Republic, this TS looks like its going to hit us, will it be severe? Im very concerned for all the poor people here that havent recovered from the last one, any advice would be appreciated

Welcome to storm2k and enjoy all of we have in the different forums.About this system,it will mainly be a windy event and a marine event,The amount of rain for the DR will depend on how the low tracks.If it goes north of the DR coast you will not get the most bad weather,but if it moves over or south of DR,then plenty of rain will fall.

[Fego]

Good morning, I live on the beachfront on the north coast of the Dominican Republic, this TS looks like its going to hit us, will it be severe? Im very concerned for all the poor people here that havent recovered from the last one, any advice would be appreciated

Welcome aboard Ladybird. By the way I was born in the Dominican Republico but now I live in Puerto Rico. Here is what some models proyect. Feliz Navidad.