Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[cycloneye]

If you ask me,I think the squadron will go this afternoon based on what is going on with the system this morning.But officially later this morning we will know if they will fly or not.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



Convection over the LLC.

[cycloneye]

Today there will not be dead posts.

[Thunder44]

Let's a for a few more visible images to see if the LLC is totally under convection. Although, it does looks like blow-up of thunderstorms has managed lifted it up north somewhat.

[HURAKAN]

Today there will not be dead posts.

Luis, simpre es la misma historia.

Luis, it's always the same story.

[Thunder44]

QS pass at 10:00 UTC this morning:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas19.png

[Normandy]

Circulation center currently is not close to being under the convection....still about 50-80 miles west (give or take). Now....could the circulation reform under this convection....of course.

[KWT]

Actually I can't find any tight closed circulation anymore, I could see it upto about an hour ago but on the latest IR+Vis images I'm having a hard time unless its gotten broader which maybe possible. Have to wait for more images.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[cycloneye]

Thunder44,now with the feature that we have to make closeups to the images,you dont have to post only a link. I put the image at your post.Click the feature at the upper left for closeup.

[HURAKAN]

Not bad!

[superfly]

Still looks very sheared but better than it looked yesterday

[Thunder44]

Thunder44,now with the feature that we have to make closeups to the images,you dont have to post only a link. I put the image at your post.Click the feature at the upper left for closeup.

I know how to host an image. I was just in rush, sorry.

Anyway, it looks like the strongest winds are more than a hundred miles away from the center.

[KWT]

Still looks fairly broad but I think I've spotted the LLC again but allthe sheared anvils on the southern side is making a touch hard to spot it. looks like the center is a touch west fof the convection, not by a great deal and it looks pretty broad, as you'd expect having been under pretty strong shear for the last 36hrs!

[storms in NC]

Well It looks like They were right on about Friday. It looks better than yesterday. Now you should see you look better though the day. But the mets here said that all the rain would be on the east side.

[Thunder44]

The center looks like it near 29N 69.5W, which is near the SW edge of the convection. There is still some southwesterly shear over the system this morning but high pressure is aloft being to move in from the north, which is why you see convection blowing up north of center.

Edited to "29N"

[storms in NC]

Out of WILM NWC

AS FOR THE OFFSHORE LOW...LATEST
GUIDANCE SLOWER TO MOVE AND DEVELOP LOW AND CONSENSUS IS FOR IT TO
COME ASHORE SOMETIME SUNDAY ALONG THE NC OR SC COASTLINE. SAT PICS
FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWED LOW LOOKING PRETTY RAGGEDY WITH A
COMPLETELY EXPOSED CENTER. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD BIT OF
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BE ENTRAINED WITHIN THE SYSTEM ALTHOUGH
CONVECTION IS FLARING UP ON ITS EAST SIDE. HURRICANE CENTER NOTES
THAT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT
THAT THIS COULD CHANGE AS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NW. THIS ALL POINTS
TO SLOW DEVELOPMENT EVEN IF THE LOW SHOULD PICK UP TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. IF THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE CASE...PROJECTED TRACK WILL
KEEP HEAVIEST RAINS CONFINED TO THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. HAVE KEPT
POPS MODEST...NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS WILL
BE THE DROUGHT BREAKER THAT WE ARE HOPING FOR...NOT EVEN CLOSE.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[marcane_1973]

Wow!!! Maybe 99L is about to be taken off life support. The shear has FINALLY seemed to have started to drop some so that's good news. I would say if the T-storms stay persistent here on out that this little fighter might actually have the possibility becoming a strong 60-70mph TS before landfall and also give some areas in the Carolinas some much needed rain. What you guys think???

[carversteve]

I see that the gfdl in their animation,has this thing as a cat 1 with landfall i believe in sc.Can anyone elaborate on that with some thoughts on this.It does look better than yesterday.And isn't the water very warm where it is? Not an expert by no means,just a weather lover.Once the shear is gone,could this not blow up faster with the high moving in.