Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[wxman57]

Here's a new McIDAS shot I enhanced. You can see the LLC fairly well near 29N/70.1W. Note the banding developing well west and northwest of the LLC now, evidence of decreasing shear. Though it was near death yesterday, it has risen from the ashes today. Dr. McCoy has stepped away from the microphone. I still think there is at least a minimal hurricane risk to the coast of North Carolina on Sunday. More likely a TS, but intensity forecasts can be highly uncertain, particularly with systems like this.

[wxman57]

I see that the gfdl in their animation,has this thing as a cat 1 with landfall i believe in sc.Can anyone elaborate on that with some thoughts on this.It does look better than yesterday.And isn't the water very warm where it is? Not an expert by no means,just a weather lover.Once the shear is gone,could this not blow up faster with the high moving in.

The GFDL has been lost all season. I'm not putting much faith in it. That said, if this does become a moderate TS then it wouldn't take much for it to reach 75-90 mph winds prior to its northward turn near 35N on Sunday.

[KWT]

How strong it gets is pretty dependant on exactly how the shear evolves, as other shave said at the start of this thread the waters can easily support decent hurricanes however the shear and also that dry air present will probably help to keep this system lop-sided even if it does however we have seen such systems get uto cat-2...its all dependant on how strong the shear stays, probably between 60-90mph range for landfall IF the shear eases off, thats a big if I have to say.

(ps, thats about where I thought it was wxman, nice image, nice to have some confirmation from a pro-met!)

[HURAKAN]

SHIP S 1100 32.80 -70.40 239 343 60 42.9 - - - - - 30.09

Winds are pretty strong north of the low. Of course, it's between of the gradient pressure.

[carversteve]

Here's a new McIDAS shot I enhanced. You can see the LLC fairly well near 29N/70.1W. Note the banding developing well west and northwest of the LLC now, evidence of decreasing shear. Though it was near death yesterday, it has risen from the ashes today. Dr. McCoy has stepped away from the microphone. I still think there is at least a minimal hurricane risk to the coast of North Carolina on Sunday. More likely a TS, but intensity forecasts can be highly uncertain, particularly with systems like this.

Is it just me or does it have that look about it..looks much better

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



It's popping!!!

[carversteve]

Latest:



It's popping!!!

Looking much healthier this morning..see if it keeps it up during the day

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[hurricanetrack]

Looks like Mr. Bauer will be back for another season of "24".

[storms in NC]

"Is it just me or does it have that look about it..looks much better"

It does have that look. I think it is going to build up fast. Just from this morning you can see how fast the confection is getting around the center

[brunota2003]

It's gotta be dead...On a side note, looks much healthier and crisp this morning. I'm willing to wajor that recon goes later today to at least check the area out. Today and tomorrow are going to be interesting, especially with it progged to hit on Sat night/Sunday, according to MHX Discussions.

[cheezyWXguy]

Wow...convection is really beginning to close in around the center, and banding has formed all the way to the latitude the center is at. Much improvement today from yesterday, and I could see this becoming a TD tomorrow, at the rate the shear is decreasing.

[brunota2003]

Just an interesting side note:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
07/1145 UTC 29.0N 68.8W T1.0/1.0 99L
07/0645 UTC 28.4N 69.8W ST1.5/1.5 99L

The Sat estimates now have it fully tropical, versus the ST it was given earlier!!!

[ronjon]

Looks like it will be steered toward the SW in the short term.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html

[cheezyWXguy]

Latest:

Can you give me the link to the RAMSDIS page? I lost the link again

[Bane]

i think it may actually look better now than it has at any point in its existence.

[cheezyWXguy]

Just an interesting side note:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
07/1145 UTC 29.0N 68.8W T1.0/1.0 99L
07/0645 UTC 28.4N 69.8W ST1.5/1.5 99L

The Sat estimates now have it fully tropical, versus the ST it was given earlier!!!

Why have the T-numbers come down? I think it looks better than before.

[HURAKAN]

Can you give me the link to the RAMSDIS page? I lost the link again

New page: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[brunota2003]

Just an interesting side note:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
07/1145 UTC 29.0N 68.8W T1.0/1.0 99L
07/0645 UTC 28.4N 69.8W ST1.5/1.5 99L

The Sat estimates now have it fully tropical, versus the ST it was given earlier!!!

Why have the T-numbers come down? I think it looks better than before.

I dont know, maybe because the current pattern marks a stronger look as a subTropical, rather that tropical, system?

[marcane_1973]

My uncle has a fairly new beach house in Myrtle Beach that sits behind a marsh not even 2 blocks from the ocean. I sure hope that this invest doesn't get too strong on the intensity and surprise everyone becoming a borderline cat2 or he could be in real trouble with the model showing the center could make landfall just south of Myrtle Beach and then skirting the coast just inland up thru N.C. The GFDL model would be the worst case sceneraio for him.