Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[Houstonia]

we need to keep this situation in perspective

What we are likely facing is a rain event with gusty winds. Those living near rivers need to closely monitor, but for the rest of us, it should just be a miserable day with severe weather

Perhaps a way to better address the warning criteria would be to abolish TS warnings, and issue gale (34-47KT and storm (48-63KT) warnings. That way, there would be a difference between the weak and strong TS

I think a lot of the problem started when they started publicizing invests. What were previously simply rain events, are now worthy of concern, worry, stress, etc. I think the majority of the public has NO NEED to know when there is a tropical "invest" in the waters.

[skysummit]

I doubt an upgrade an hour after a STDS saying it wasn't organized enough to be a Sub-Tropical Depression unless recon discovered something amazing.


I still think it was a good thing recon went, at the very least won't the 0Z models have data picked fresh from the farm?

Yea. Well, at least we know for CERTAIN what we have down there right now....not much. At least it's giving us a beautiful day up here though!

[Ed Mahmoud]

As far as I know, that number does not mean anything since the NHC didn't assign it. From the way it looks, the system has a very weak warm core, but it may be cold core above flight level. I agree with Derek's assessment.

Looks like the AC has climbed. Maybe they will head back after a fairly short flight, maybe they will mark centers and temp profiles at various flight levels.



Did the G-IV fly yesterday? Is that why most of the models have narrowed it between Western Florida and Eastern Louisiana?

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Brent]

I'm saying no upgrade either... haven't seen data to support it and the satellite presentation is a horrible mess.

[Dean4Storms]

We won't see much more organization tonight, but if the shear relaxes just a little as expected tomorrow it could have at least a small window for some intensification on a more steady scale.

I can see a 60-70 mph TS eventually out of this.

[KWT]

Why would they want to upgrade that mess, we've seen plenty of invests (Ingrid looked miles better when it was an invest at times) that have been better organised then this. Still it does have some sort of circulation so you never know but it doesn't look anything like a Humberto event this time round!

[Downdraft]

You can't make a silk purse out of a sows ear! I have no idea what the passion is for trying to make this system into something it just isn't and won't become. 76 pages for something like this to me is absolutely amazing. If recon went in just to get some synoptic data for the models that's fine but Derek is right if they went to see if this mess was developing they just wasted the gas. People ought to be saying wow we dodged a bullet and this thing won't make landfall as anything more than a mess. Instead it seems so many now think every swirl in the Gulf is on it's way to a Cat 5.

[Derek Ortt]

there is no shear over this system now. There is hardly any shear underneath a UL

The UL just isnt cold enough aloft to produce sufficient instability

[rlltex]

I think a lot of the problem started when they started publicizing invests. What were previously simply rain events, are now worthy of concern, worry, stress, etc. I think the majority of the public has NO NEED to know when there is a tropical "invest" in the waters.[/quote]

As politely as I can say it, please don't presume to speak for me as part of the public you speak of. I like to have enough time physically and financially to adequately prepare for a storm. If people choose to obsess so be it. I think the "majority" (whoever they are and whoever you think should decide they are) are capable of sorting through the hype. I like to keep informed.

[Ed Mahmoud]

there is no shear over this system now. There is hardly any shear underneath a UL

The UL just isnt cold enough aloft to produce sufficient instability

Maybe I'm wrong, but if the UL and t-storms are enough to lower the surface pressure sufficiently, the lower pressure and increased convergence, if this is going to slowly become a tropical system, are enough to keep thunderstorms going even as the UL fills and warms, until eventually the process is complete?



(Genuinely curious, plus wondering if I'm on the "ignore list").

[Derek Ortt]

not on ignore, ed, not even close to that list

as for your question, the upper convergence is what seems to b limiting the convection. We need something to force the convection at the surface (upper thermo isn't doing the trick), to get the heat release and warm the upper trop

[Dean4Storms]

This buoy about in the center.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42022

[Stormcenter]

You can't make a silk purse out of a sows ear! I have no idea what the passion is for trying to make this system into something it just isn't and won't become. 76 pages for something like this to me is absolutely amazing. If recon went in just to get some synoptic data for the models that's fine but Derek is right if they went to see if this mess was developing they just wasted the gas.

Well everyone should know how I feel about 93L since it was just a blip on the models last weekend. I was never a fan of it's potential development. Yet I still would not completely write off it's chances of at least becoming a moderate to strong TS. If it became anything more then I would be surprised based on what's out there right now.

[Steve]

>>As politely as I can say it, please don't presume to speak for me as part of the public you speak of. I like to have enough time physically and financially to adequately prepare for a storm. If people choose to obsess so be it. I think the "majority" (whoever they are and whoever you think should decide they are) are capable of sorting through the hype. I like to keep informed.

Thank you. This isn't a national security issue, and I am a taxpayer. I'd like access to what my money pays for tyvm.

Steve

[Ed Mahmoud]

The plane has dropped back down to normal invest altitude.

[Ed Mahmoud]

URNT12 KNHC 202105
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102007
A. 20/20:42:50Z
B. 26 deg 54 min N
084 deg 18 min W
C. 850 mb 1458 m
D. 27 kt
E. 311 deg 38 nm
F. 050 deg 020 kt
G. 312 deg 102 nm
H. 1005 mb
I. 16 C/ 1569 m
J. 16 C/ 1563 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/8
O. 0.02 / 8 nm
P. AF306 02IIA INVEST OB 12
MAX FL WIND 20 KT N QUAD 20:10:00 Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 132 / 26 NM FROM FL CNTR

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not really warm core at 850 mb level...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Slightly cooler inside from outside. Extratropical.

[tailgater]

Just looking at the SAT loops, there is still a lot of shear over the LLC.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html