Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[fasterdisaster]

I thought so, but I do wonder what recon will find in this crucial last mission. I won't be able to see it as it happens though, since I'm falling asleep. Good luck to all in this hurricane's path.

[Normandy]

Still diving a bit WSW....unless Felix turns due west soon Puertos Caberos might be in the southern eyewall.

[PhillyWX]

[Normandy]

Oh boy, new image shows a MUCH warmer eye. Motion also seems to be WSW still....the wobble continues.

[Thunder44]

My guess from reading the discussion, without TPC will just us the ADT numbers for intensity, until this storm makes landfall. As of 8:15UTC they CI #is at 6.5, ADJ is at 6.7

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt06L.html

[abajan]

It's probably been mentioned earlier in the thread but let's pray this isn't a repeat of the '98 disaster caused by the flooding rains and accompanying mudslides in association with Mitch - another Cat5 hurricane (though not at landfall).

This general area seems to attract powerful canes: Janet, Gilbert, Mitch, to name a few that come readily to mind.

[Thunder44]

8:45 UTC: CI# 6.6, ADJ #6.8

The ADJ numbers appear to be closer to actual intensity of this storm:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt06L.html

[HURAKAN]

HELL ON EARTH.

[KBBOCA]

Just noticed this graph on the CIMSS site. That is a pretty darn good illustration of rapid intensification... looks like it fell off a cliff!

[PhillyWX]

http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com ... ay-am.html

Updated TV Captures of Felix, including evacuation efforts in Honduras.

[Normandy]

Bet the farm when recon gets in they find SCARY flight level winds....eye warmed drastically over the past hour and convection is just intense as ever.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

When on earth does the recon get into this system?

I would not be suprized if they found 160 knot flight level now.

[PhillyWX]

Bet the farm when recon gets in they find SCARY flight level winds....eye warmed drastically over the past hour and convection is just intense as ever.

In my unprofessional opinion, you have a Cat 5 out there right now.

[WmE]

When on earth does the recon get into this system?

I would not be suprized if they found 160 knot flight level now.

I was thinking the same thing right now. Scary looks really really good!!

[Thunder44]

When on earth does the recon get into this system?

I would not be suprized if they found 160 knot flight level now.

I don't think another plane is going in. The plane earlier this morning was supposed to be in the storm until 12z, but it left early.

[Normandy]

Yea I'd go out on a limb and say it has some Category 5 winds....with that convection is easily bringing those winds down to the surface.

[HURAKAN]

1. HURRICANE FELIX
FLIGHT ONE
A. 04/1800Z,05/0000Z
B. AFXXX 1506A FELIX
C. 04/1430Z
D. 16.3N 84.5W
E. 04/1730Z TO 05/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

There's a mission for 1430Z. But I think by that time it will be inland.

[wbug1]

Disclaimer: the following is amateur analysis of landfalling hurricane Felix.. just north of Puerto Cabezas in Nicaragua..

Looks like the south eyewall will pass very close to Puerto Cabezas, appears north eyewall is stronger but with such strong convection it looks any quad could get severe winds. With the history this storm has of causing a NOAA hurricane hunter to withdraw due to turbulence and the continuing strong convection, I think that this storm could bring gusts even higher and cause damage higher than one would expect from a 140-145 kt Cat4/5 borderline hurricane.

[windstorm99]

A monster before moving onshore...