Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[destruction92]

I could be wrong, but it looks like the WNW motion has ended per Cuban radar. It looks like the center is currently resuming a NW motion, in my opinion. Does anyone think this could be significant and reflect the progged turn expected by the NHC's cone?

http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/07Holguin/hlgMAXw01a.gif

It's hard to tell since Noel does not have a well-defined center of circulation.
Anyways, if Noel continued WNW it would run into Cuba's mountainous terrain meaning an early death.

[cpdaman]

I will be watching for the latitude fix at 11 and 2 to see if it can nudge west into cuba which will stop any strengthening

if this climbs to 21.1 at 11 and N of 21.2 at 2 am i think we could have a potentially sneaky problem in SE florida along the lines of at least humerto ( not saying likely) but this is in a potential very dangerous area IMO and it has about two days or less (little warning)

i hope it nudges west into cuba and skirts the coast a bit closer

[NcentralFlaguy]

I could be wrong, but it looks like the WNW motion has ended per Cuban radar. It looks like the center is currently resuming a NW motion, in my opinion. Does anyone think this could be significant and reflect the progged turn expected by the NHC's cone?

http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/07Holguin/hlgMAXw01a.gif

looks as if its riding the coast of cuba, but I have been told not to look at radar to determine forward motion of a storm. either way its west of the current forecast.

[TheShrimper]

All that "prep" work could be accomplished in about a half hour. Do you think you are going overboard a little bit? Don't tell us you are going to Publix next. No gas needs thrown on the fire hype-wise.

[destruction92]

I'm not a pro... but it's not the second one.

Now I didnt mean the one in Seattle, lol I mean the 2nd one as in the shortwave dipping south from the midwest/great lakes region.

Where is that Midwestern shortwave? I am having trouble locating it. Please refer to the page I have been looking at and tell me what I am missing. http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/cur ... enter_maps

[Cyclone1]

I'm not a pro... but it's not the second one.

Now I didnt mean the one in Seattle, lol I mean the 2nd one as in the shortwave dipping south from the midwest/great lakes region.

Oh! Sorry. Well, in that case, I'd say maybe, but doubtful.

[cycloneye]

29/2345 UTC 20.9N 74.6W T2.5/2.5 NOEL -- Atlantic Ocean


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[NcentralFlaguy]

I'm not a pro... but it's not the second one.

Now I didnt mean the one in Seattle, lol I mean the 2nd one as in the shortwave dipping south from the midwest/great lakes region.

Where is that Midwestern shortwave? I am having trouble locating it. Please refer to the page I have been looking at and tell me what I am missing. http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/cur ... enter_maps

look at day 3 youll see a little shortwave ..doesnt even really extend that far to the south but you can see it easily on the wv loop dipping south from the great lakes.

[destruction92]

29/2345 UTC 20.9N 74.6W T2.5/2.5 NOEL -- Atlantic Ocean


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Luis, can you break down the data for us laypeople? Has the center relocated...what has the general movement been in the past few hours been according to those coordinates.

[Rainband]

Doesn't matter... most if not all of the weather will be to the east of FL and thus not really anything to worry about but rip currents...unless it strengthens and then it will turn quicker.

[caneman]

29/2345 UTC 20.9N 74.6W T2.5/2.5 NOEL -- Atlantic Ocean


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Not good. Looks like it is intesifying.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Post edited by mf_dolphin

[MiamiensisWx]

All that "prep" work could be accomplished in about a half hour. Do you think you are going overboard a little bit? Don't tell us you are going to Publix next. No gas needs thrown on the fire hype-wise.

These are the only preparations we are utilizing for Noel. I'm not going to Publix for anything. We already have our supplies from the days prior to June 1.

[ROCK]

T# are up and rightly so, IMO. Plenty of potential as long as it stays offshore of Cuba. Might make cane status as I see it. Organizing at this rate. Got some shear ahead of it though.....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[tolakram]

TBH, grow up would you?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

The circulation is becoming easy to identify on the shortwave and, at the moment anyway, it looks to be moving west toward Cuba.

[Canelaw99]

All that "prep" work could be accomplished in about a half hour. Do you think you are going overboard a little bit? Don't tell us you are going to Publix next. No gas needs thrown on the fire hype-wise.

I don't see anything wrong with getting a bit done ahead of time. If nothing happens, then it's not a biggie, but if this thing sneaks up on us down here then we don't need people out there in danger trying to clear their patios and porches.

[destruction92]

Doesn't matter... most if not all of the weather will be to the east of FL and thus not really anything to worry about but rip currents...unless it strengthens and then it will turn quicker.

Exactly. Although it never hurts to be prepared, it is not necessary to prepare for power outages in SE Florida....especially New Port Richey ....a dangerous 300 miles NW of the Gold Coast!

Floridians need not worry. Glad to see you agree Rainband. Sick of all this hype.

[wxman57]

Another thing to watch is the 50-degree dew points spilling south across Florida now behind the front. This cool, dry air will spill off the coast of Florida ahead of Noel, probably killing off convection on the western side of the storm as it approaches (not that there's much convection west of the center now). So you'll probably be facing a "half storm" with gusty winds on the west primarily due to the pressure gradient west of the front in combination with the low pressure of Noel to the east.

Yeah, I noticed that. Fall is coming to Florida(It's been here for 5 days and it's GREAT, we're headed into the 30's tonight)! I don't really think this will be a big deal at all.

No need for sarcasm..If you read the post,he says the dew points will drop BEHIND the front,not before it gets here..I'd bet that Mr X-57, who has studied weather,is correct...You can have your viewpoint,but your post was uncalled for.

By the way, I don't believe I said there were dew points in the 50s in south Florida. Dew points in the panhandle are in the low 40s to low 50s now. Dew points are in the upper 40s along the coast of Georgia. That dry air is moving south quite rapidly behind the cold front which lies across the central peninsula. But, no, you won't see dew points in the 40s or low 50s in Miami by tomorrow. Mid to upper 60s would be more like it behind the front across the southern peninsula at first. And the closer Noel gets to the coast, the more cooler, drier air it'll absorb. There's a big difference in heat energy in 80 dew point air and upper 60s dew point air. Combine that with mid and upper-level dry air intrusion and its western half is going to suffer as it nears Florida.

Finally, as someone asked earlier "what cold front is going to steer Noel?". Cold fronts don't steer tropical cyclones. They move with the mid to upper-level winds. Mid and upper-level wind flow along and ahead of the cold front will cause the northeast turn.

[Blown Away]

All that "prep" work could be accomplished in about a half hour. Do you think you are going overboard a little bit? Don't tell us you are going to Publix next. No gas needs thrown on the fire hype-wise.

The local media will gas up the fire at 11pm when they issue TS Watch for SFL and say Noel "Could" become a hurricane.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

TBH, grow up would you?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

The circulation is becoming easy to identify on the shortwave and, at the moment anyway, it looks to be moving west toward Cuba.

We all need a little humor
The forum was getting intense debate so I decided
to lighten it up with some humor.