Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[Normandy]

Those islands will be LEVELED.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Overall it looks as good as it did Sunday when that recon plane had to abort. How many of you "if" you had a private jet with wind and pressure measuring tools would fly into this to find out? Because this thing is likely 140+ knots. I would seriously have a thought of doing it.

[miamicanes177]

from the NHC 5am discussion:

"The maximum flight-level wind during the past few hours was 148 kt...corresponding to 133 kt at the surface...and a surface wind estimate based on the low-layer mean wind of a dropsonde profile was 132 kt. Another dropsonde reported surface winds of 147 kt...but that is not likely representative of a sustained surface wind."

It looks like they believed the 133kt dropsonde, but they discounted the 147kt one as being suspect. The 147kt surface is likely accurate because Felix has a history of transporting FL winds to the surface at an efficient rate. The FL to surface reduction rate in Felix is more like 95%-99%.

[wbug1]

Best IR view of felix: some greens near the highest end of the scale.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/ft-l.jpg

[Normandy]

This thing did NOT have 147kt surface winds when recon was in this storm earlier....

Now, well that might be a different story.

EDIT:
New IR image shows some VERY intense convection in the southern quad....there is likely some SEVERE winds occuring around Puertos Caberos.

Boy this latest IR image is frightening.....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

At its peak there was surface data as high as 160+ with this. I would not be suprized if it has a area of 145-150 knots now.

[miamicanes177]

no recon for landfall intensity?

[WmE]

no recon for landfall intensity?

No, the flights were canceled I guess.

[Normandy]

Good, recon does NOT need to be in a storm like this...could be life threatening for the crew.

[O Town]

Why? Why is there no recon in there for landfall?
Anybody know the reason why they cancelled?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This deserves to be placed at 155 knots or maybe a little higher at its peak post season. This is one of the badest freaking systems to ever form in the Atlantic for wind. NOT pressure wise.

[miamicanes177]

Latest images are shocking...this is most certainly a 165-175mph cat 5 right now

[PhillyWX]

000
WTNT61 KNHC 041040
TCUAT1
HURRICANE FELIX TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
640 AM AST TUE SEP 04 2007

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HURRICANE FELIX HAS CONTINUED TO
STRENGTHEN...AND HAS BECOME A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY
FIVE HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 160 MPH...260
KM/HR...JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[WmE]

000
WTNT61 KNHC 041040
TCUAT1
HURRICANE FELIX TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
640 AM AST TUE SEP 04 2007

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HURRICANE FELIX HAS CONTINUED TO
STRENGTHEN...AND HAS BECOME A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY
FIVE HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 160 MPH...260
KM/HR...JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

Well, good job NHC. Phew, it surely is a Cat 5!!

[Normandy]

Heh 160 might be conservative....this looks as intense as any small hurricane I have EVER seen. The convection in it is just UNREAL.

[WmE]

Think about it, 15 years of no Cat5 making landfall and then, in 2007 2 systems make landfall at the highest category.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

To me this looks like Katrina,Mitch,Rita, like strength.

[miamicanes177]

Heh 160 might be conservative....this looks as intense as any small hurricane I have EVER seen. The convection in it is just UNREAL.

You are correct. Its ability to transfer flight level winds to the surface is shocking. Conversion factor is nearly 100% for this beast.

[Normandy]

Think about it, 15 years of no Cat5 making landfall and then, in 2007 2 systems make landfall at the highest category.

Pretty amazing....Just unreal. And the GOM is still UNTOUCHED. In fact, most of the NW carribean is as well. Pretty devestating season this has been so far, and it might get worse unfortunately.

[superfly]

Heh 160 might be conservative....this looks as intense as any small hurricane I have EVER seen. The convection in it is just UNREAL.

Never seen Wilma at its peak then?