Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Based on a buoy/ship report to the north and south of the developing LLC. I would say a LLC is forming near 18-18.5 north/59 west...There is a west-southwest wind on the south side. I say it could be coming back.

[Tertius]

Based on a buoy/ship report to the north and south of the developing LLC. I would say a LLC is forming near 18-18.5 north/59 west...There is a west-southwest wind on the south side. I say it could be coming back.

After having a look at the sat I think you might have it about pegged. Now if the convection can just move a wee bit west and get over that rotation Karen just might get herself going again.

[xironman]

You can see the area mentioned around 18.5N, 59W pretty good in the RAMSDIS loop http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1, I don't know if the IR is reliable. From the water vapor it looks to be right at the bottom of the upper trough, probably not the best place to be http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-wv.html, though it appears to be weakening. Karen will have to live for a while before better conditions come around http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2007100100&field=850-200mb+Shear&hour=048hr

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 010921
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON OCT 1 2007

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE REMNANTS OF
KAREN...EXTEND FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EASTWARD FOR SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES. THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IN THIS AREA COULD
WEAKEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT
MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

[Gustywind]

http://www.sxmcyclone.com/accuweather%20atlantique.htm

http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/satellite/TAG/Tagant.jpg 530 am

[Cyclone1]

Remnants are off NRL. I still think this is far from Ingrid 2. Maybe a merger of some sort with that Bahama blob?

[Sanibel]

If you learn the lesson 2007 is teaching us the remaining convection is shear-induced and nothing will come of Karen's remnants. The upper trough is turning the corner right over the top of that remaining convection, which is probably why it is there in the first place. The heart of the shear is right on top of it.

[cycloneye]

11:30 AM TWO

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE REMNANTS OF
KAREN...EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS EASTWARD FOR
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

[BigA]

If you learn the lesson 2007 is teaching us the remaining convection is shear-induced and nothing will come of Karen's remnants. The upper trough is turning the corner right over the top of that remaining convection, which is probably why it is there in the first place. The heart of the shear is right on top of it

I'm not sure that the heart of the shear is on top of it; if anything, Ex-Karen looks to be in the only area of about 10 kt shear. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

The GFS, thought it doesnt develop it, still predicts general decreasing shear.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_00.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_24.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_48.gif

Any disagreement I do with respect. Honestly, I think the odds are pretty strong against redevelopment, but it does look like the shear will decrease

[xironman]

One the lessons that I picked up was that the shear induced convection from the upper level feature can help in forming a lower level feature once the upper level feature starts to abate. The high res satellite seems to show the old broad cyclonic spin of Karen http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=18&lon=-57&zoom=1&type=Animation&info=vis having some convection that may get going as the shear diminishes.

[chadtm80]

[cycloneye]

Gustywind,I lost the Guadeloupe radar link.Can you post it?

[chadtm80]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

[cycloneye]

Thank you chad.

[CrazyC83]

It looks like the remnants of Karen are merging with 90L...