Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[Windtalker2]

Anyone have any up close shots of Felix crossing the coast?

[Normandy]

Good news for Felix is that it shouldn't maintain its structure like Dean did....its a much smaller cyclone and should weaken fairly quickly once crossing land.

Signs of that occuring are showing up already.

[PhillyWX]

Anyone have any up close shots of Felix crossing the coast?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

Check this and save it. Time sensitive.

[Coredesat]

Alternatively, go here as this isn't time-sensitive:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc07/A ... eo/1km_bw/

[TampaFl]

Map courtesy of Boat USA:

[HurricaneHunter914]

Wow, 2007 is definitly going in the record books. I'm praying for the people in Honduras and Nicaragua. This is going to be, as the NHC put it, Catastrophic.

[Windtalker2]

Alternatively, go here as this isn't time-sensitive:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc07/A ... eo/1km_bw/

Thanks to you and PhillyWX

[Chacor]

[Normandy]

Well, time for bed. Second hurricane, second late night watching history occur.

Land is taking its toll on Felix now and it should fall apart pretty fast....nevertheless, DEVESTATING hit on Nicaragua.

Prolly the last time will see Felix.

[PhillyWX]

Alternatively, go here as this isn't time-sensitive:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc07/A ... eo/1km_bw/

Thank you!

[PhillyWX]

This is the first season, IIRC, that there have been two hurricane landfalls as a Cat 5 in the same season.

[Normandy]

Also one more thing of note.....forgot to mention it.

Notice the heavy rainband that is pushing westward very slowly ahead of Felix (over Honduras right now).....Not gonna help with the death toll

[Weatherfreak14]

WOW, two landfalling Cat 5's in the same season. This is starting to remind me of 05. As for felix about to make landfall in the next 15-30 min, hopefully thats a rural area in nicaragua.

[HURAKAN]

EYE OVER THE COAST:

[wbug1]

There's no entrainment, last water vapour shot shows a strong burst of convection again on the water vapor, particularly in the west/southwest flank. The CDO has also expanded somewhat just now as Felix comes ashore.

I agree with what Normandy said, that Felix is a very powerful hurricane wind wise. What I don't understand is why Wilma with a much smaller eye and much lower pressure than Felix didn't really have much higher wind. The stronger convection never showed up as a large blob of grey on the IR (or large blue on WV) like Wilma had, but the NOAA plane reported lightning all quads, hail and was forced to withdraw from Felix. Since then convection as shown by satellite has intensified. Only now does it have any significant blue on the water vapor sat shot near the eyewall (the big blob that formed on the northwest seems to have had it's own thing going for a while). That was 20 minutes ago.

Hopefully all people in that landfalling area have moved to inner rooms in as secure structures as they can find.

[Normandy]

There's no entrainment, last water vapour shot shows a strong burst of convection again on the water vapor, particularly in the west/southwest flank. The CDO has also expanded somewhat just now as Felix comes ashore.

I agree with what Superfly said, that Felix is a very powerful hurricane wind wise. What I don't understand is why Wilma with a much smaller eye and much lower pressure than Felix didn't really have much higher wind. The stronger convection never showed up as a large blob of grey on the IR (or large blue on WV) like Wilma had, but the NOAA plane reported lightning all quads, hail and was forced to withdraw from Felix. Since then convection as shown by satellite has intensified. Only now does it have any significant blue on the water vapor sat shot near the eyewall (the big blob that formed on the northwest seems to have had it's own thing going for a while). That was 20 minutes ago.

Hopefully all people in that landfalling area have moved to inner rooms in as secure structures as they can find.

Really don't have an answer for ya on that question....perhaps a pro can chime in.

From what we know, Wilma should have been the most intense to fly through (Most rapid rate of deepening, most intense convection, etc)....but Recon flough through it as it bottomed out.

In contrast, a storm with much higher pressure, a slower rate of deepening, and less intense convection had turbulence too intense for recon.

Any pros can chime in on this?

[WmE]

Wrong, Felix was a rapidly deepening system. In fact the fastest to go from TD to Cat 5!!

[Chacor]

[superfly]

From what we know, Wilma should have been the most intense to fly through (Most rapid rate of deepening, most intense convection, etc)....but Recon flough through it as it bottomed out.

In contrast, a storm with much higher pressure, a slower rate of deepening, and less intense convection had turbulence too intense for recon.

Recon just hit an intense updraft or downdraft while in the eyewall that one mission. They aborted for precautionary measures in case there was damage to the structure of the aircraft, not because the turbulence itself "scared" recon away. That's why the aircraft has been inoperable since then because they are likely still examining it for structural damage.

[Chacor]

085
WTNT31 KNHC 041146
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 04 2007

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE FELIX MAKES LANDFALL IN
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AT CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NICARAGUA FROM PUERTO CABEZAS
NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...AND FOR HONDURAS FROM
LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS WEST OF LIMON...FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF
BELIZE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ISLA DE
PROVIDENCIA....FOR NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS TO
PRINZAPOLKA....AND FOR HONDURAS FROM WEST OF LIMON TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER... INCLUDING ISLAS DE LA BAHIA. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED ON
THE COAST NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST OR VERY
NEAR PUNTA GORDA NICARAGUA ABOUT 10 MILES...15 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF PUERTO CABEZAS.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A CONTINUED
WESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FELIX WILL
BE MOVING INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TODAY AND OVER
HONDURAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

EARLIER REPORTS FROM A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT AND RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. FELIX IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE HURRICANE WILL WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING IN EXCESS OF 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER IS MAKING LANDFALL.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
NICARAGUA AND MUCH OF HONDURAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...14.3 N...83.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH