Tropical Depression ERIN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

[Duddy]

I think you all might find this interesting... its the WRF (not the HWRF) but if you notice the NNW motion in 30 hours or so

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll ... te_1h.html


just looked at it agian .. almost looks like a N to even NNE motion towards the end ... lol

or maybe it stalls it ..

LOL! I don't think that will happen

[bob rulz]

Wow, it's definitely looking more impressive! When does recon go in next?

[Duddy]

Wow, it's definitely looking more impressive! When does recon go in next?

Later in the morning I think. I'm going to sleep in and see what the 2PM advisory looks like, that will be more of a surprise.

[tailgater]

Finally seeing some decent pressure falls, it may be starting to deepen, lets see if this is a trend or not.
Bouy42001
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001
buoy 42002
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002
Interesting that the pressures are lower to west, maybe an indication of movement in the future.

[Thunder44]

Wow, it's definitely looking more impressive! When does recon go in next?

It is still a 30mph TD as of 5am Advisory. They also say recon will be in the system by 12z (8am) today.

[tailgater]

Looks like it's dissapated now, time sensetive
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
some wierd stuff going on tonite.

[Normandy]

Tailgater that was an error on the site....this thing is doing the opposite of dissipating.

[tailgater]

Tailgater that was an error on the site....this thing is doing the opposite of dissipating.

Yes I'm very aware of that, guess I should put an J/J on my post.

[Normandy]

I thought you might be just had to be sure

One thing of note, however, in regards to our depression.
If the center is in the middle of the large convective burst, it is about 90-100 miles North/NNW of the NHC initialization at the 11 PM advisory. Thats already out of the forecast cone.

[Starburst]

Is it just me and my tired eyes or is this depression really seem to be growing in size rather quickly?

[tailgater]

Finally seeing some decent pressure falls, it may be starting to deepen, lets see if this is a trend or not.
Bouy42001
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001
buoy 42002
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002
Interesting that the pressures are lower to west, maybe an indication of movement in the future.

Pressure now down 29.81 inches at 42001 and winds out of the SE

[Normandy]

That indicates deepening of the system, as that bouy is well NE of the center and has a falling pressure.

In addition, the other bouy (49002) in your post tailgater also has a falling pressure and is well NW of the center....This depression looks on its way to Erin.

[Nimbus]

Sure hope this keeps moving and rolls inland soon. If it stalls near the coast, prolonged rain and wind on the north side of the storm could bring a lot of tree branches down on power lines.

In Florida the storms that had wind gusts over 50 MPH made a mess of the power grid. No AC or refrigerator for a couple days is a real pain.

[Normandy]

Man this storm if deepening...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
Look at the intense vorticity the convection has.

[wxman57]

Busy day ahead. Just plotted a surface map before heading to work. Winds not particularly impressive around the low, and it appears to be farther north than analyzed. But looks favorable for development. Should be Erin by this afternoon. With longer time over water, it could be stronger at landfall tomorrow. Probably no hurricane, though.

[tailgater]

They may wait until this afternoon but I think if they flew into it right now, that they would find T.S. ERIN, winds of 40mph.

[Normandy]

They fly in at 8:00 AM, and when they do Id bet they find a healthy storm....it looks VERY impressive right now....the upper air support is just unreal, it has almost perfect outflow and its not even a healthy system (well organized TS/cane).

[Aquawind]

Wow.. nice deep convection consolidated over the llc. Erin today..hope it moves inland fast, It takes awhile for the winds to pick after a pressure drop so we may have to wait until pm but no longer imo..

[tailgater]

Wow.. nice deep convection consolidated over the llc. Erin today..hope it moves inland fast, It takes awhile for the winds to pick after a pressure drop so we may have to wait until pm but no longer imo..

Seems to be pushing mostly westward, just looking at radar, which is probably not a good idea this far out.

http://images.intellicast.com/WeatherIm ... e_anim.gif

[Normandy]

Yea its way too far out to look for radar trends....what you are seeing are the feeder bands.