Invest 92L,West Atlantic

[jhamps10]

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED A FEW
HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

TWO

[jhamps10]

anyone have anything from GFS as to if it is developing this system?

[skysummit]

GFS isn't seeing anything yet....out to 42 hours.

[EDR1222]

Does anyone know when one of the floaters will be covering it? Don't know if it has to meet a certain criteria or not.

Thanks,

[x-y-no]

12Z GFS is just carrying a broad wave generally WNW towards SFL.

No hint of development.

[Lowpressure]

[quote="curtinnc"]Bump... Man I wish this thing would just be a big old rainmaker, make a pass into SC and NC, slow down and get us caught up with water and move on... Hate to say it, but growing up on the Chesapeake my Dad always said; "the only way Mother Nature can break a mid-summer drought is to throw a storm over you from the southeast".

I hear you, it is so hot and so dry here, it is crazy. Grown trees are dying from no water and day after day of 100 degrees plus temps. North Carolina is not suppose to be like this for this long. We need a tropical system- rainmaker- not big storm.

]

[destruction92]

i think that says a lot.
i see no reason to be concerned about 92L...

[storms in NC]

OT and school starts when?

[Dean4Storms]

There are plenty of reasons to be concerned with 92L.

[Zardoz]

Interesting. If this thing develops, it will be remembered as a real model-fooler, huh?

[jhamps10]

i think that says a lot.
i see no reason to be concerned about 92L...

You say that after GFS which has NEVER picked up on this.
no offense that seems a wee bit pre-mature to me, espically with good convection, and the possiblity of some mid level circulation. most of the other models see this.

[jhamps10]

Interesting. If this thing develops, it will be remembered as a real model-fooler, huh?

no not really to be honest.

[hial2]

12Z GFS is just carrying a broad wave generally WNW towards SFL.

No hint of development.

Wasn't the GFS carrying 930 Dean as a 1008 in the Carib at one time?

[storms in NC]

Bump... Man I wish this thing would just be a big old rainmaker, make a pass into SC and NC, slow down and get us caught up with water and move on... Hate to say it, but growing up on the Chesapeake my Dad always said; "the only way Mother Nature can break a mid-summer drought is to throw a storm over you from the southeast".

I hear you, it is so hot and so dry here, it is crazy. Grown trees are dying from no water and day after day of 100 degrees plus temps. North Carolina is not suppose to be like this for this long. We need a tropical system- rainmaker- not big storm.

]

True we do. But till this ridge moves or weakens not going to happen. Then on the other hand We have a big family Bday party for my uncle that will be 70. Sept 5 is right around the corner and My brother gets a hurricane every time they give him a party.LOL this is the first time for my uncle to have a Bparty. And it is this week-end. So we will see how the ridge does if this pans out.

[Meso]

Yeah,this may be the wave which the GFS at one stage had at 1005mb.. Although the GFS developed the western half of the wave originally I think

[chadtm80]

I don't really remember the models grabbing onto Erin before it developed?

[Noles2006]

chad - I think a few did...

[Vortex]

12Z NAM stronger and heading towards Florida

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

[x-y-no]

12Z GFS is just carrying a broad wave generally WNW towards SFL.

No hint of development.

Wasn't the GFS carrying 930 Dean as a 1008 in the Carib at one time?

Well, to its credit the GFS did develop Dean well before any of the other reliable models. That said, it's not reasonable to expect the GFS, with its relatively large grid size and parameterized handling of convection to pick up on every possibility of divergence-driven development.

[BensonTCwatcher]

The GFS was not designed to "see" those pinpoint low centers. It's not a tropical model, it's global. The GFDL will see it, when the data gets put it. Just wait till a LLC develops. I would not expect this to be a model buster.