Tropical Depression INGRID: Global & BAM Models

[Weatherfreak14]

Jeff Masters on wunderground says he would give it ten days before it could possibly threat the east coast.

[ROCK]

Where is the ignore button on here? this is the third post that he / she has come out with something totally absurd with no facts / data to back up such a claim.....EWG, its pretty close to trolling / looking for attention IMO...

And being watched quite close

thanks....I was wondering but didnt want to bother you guys/gals. I am sure yall are busy of late....Gets frustrating sometimes so I vented....

[wzrgirl1]

Where is the ignore button on here? this is the third post that he / she has come out with something totally absurd with no facts / data to back up such a claim.....EWG, its pretty close to trolling / looking for attention IMO...

And being watched quite close

may i ask who you are talking about so i can be aware

[DESTRUCTION5]

4 the record its not this DESTRUCTION..

[destruction92]

Where is the ignore button on here? this is the third post that he / she has come out with something totally absurd with no facts / data to back up such a claim.....EWG, its pretty close to trolling / looking for attention IMO...

And being watched quite close

may i ask who you are talking about so i can be aware

beware, the storm2kgb lurks...haha (this is a joke)

I think 91L will be a depression by tomorrow morning...



Looking better and better as the minutes go by...

[ROCK]

934 MB's yipes! At least that model run has the storm going north of our friends in the islands. There should be a trough to steer this away from Florida and the southeast coast but it could get uncomfortably close.

With the information you supplied, an objective reader can infer that the worst case scenario for a U.S. mainland landfall is that 91L comes "uncomfortably close" to the east coast...with that said, I believe it is very reasonable to say that it is highly unlikely that 91L will affect the Gulf Coast. It has a better chance of being a fish than trekking all the way to western GOM, IMO. There is already a cold front stretched out to the Texas coast line.

Every time I suggest a system may not be a gulf threat I get asked questions like "What is your issue?" and "Have you lost your mind?"...I do not think my opinions are unreasonable because I am using information from the global model consensus and upper level air patterns to make what I think is an informed or at least respectable opinion.

Now if you do not like what I am suggesting or do not like how the current synoptics do not support a Gulf Coast threat with 91L, I suggest you go to the 90L thread...90L has the best chance to bring some "action" to the gulf coast.

By the way, I am not a Floridian, Carolinian, Texan, or any other southerner. I am a northerner who has been through several blizzards and who does not live anywhere near the Atlantic Ocean.

That cold front never made it to the coast...its washing out as we speak with the high building in behind it....Now the next one it going to be the kicker but I am already hearing it might not make it through as well......We shall see...

One thing I have learned on 2K, is you dont make a blanket statement like that. Especially when this thing is a long way away....Now if it was recurving now then maybe......


As far as you being from Canada. I am not sure why that matters......

[destruction92]

4 the record its not this DESTRUCTION..

Let's all please get back on topic...we have an invest here....not a criminal invest-igation! Get it?
Alright, anyways I think I see a LLC forming 12N and 43W under deepening convection...anyone else see it?

[windstorm99]

Hmmmm....18z GFDL barely developes 91L at all. 1005mb

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[destruction92]

934 MB's yipes! At least that model run has the storm going north of our friends in the islands. There should be a trough to steer this away from Florida and the southeast coast but it could get uncomfortably close.

With the information you supplied, an objective reader can infer that the worst case scenario for a U.S. mainland landfall is that 91L comes "uncomfortably close" to the east coast...with that said, I believe it is very reasonable to say that it is highly unlikely that 91L will affect the Gulf Coast. It has a better chance of being a fish than trekking all the way to western GOM, IMO. There is already a cold front stretched out to the Texas coast line.

Every time I suggest a system may not be a gulf threat I get asked questions like "What is your issue?" and "Have you lost your mind?"...I do not think my opinions are unreasonable because I am using information from the global model consensus and upper level air patterns to make what I think is an informed or at least respectable opinion.

Now if you do not like what I am suggesting or do not like how the current synoptics do not support a Gulf Coast threat with 91L, I suggest you go to the 90L thread...90L has the best chance to bring some "action" to the gulf coast.

Oh, and I later changed my statement to "It is highly unlikely that 92L will affect the Gulf coast". This leaves some possibility. I agree that using the word "definitely" this early on is unwise. My mistake.

By the way, I am not a Floridian, Carolinian, Texan, or any other southerner. I am a northerner who has been through several blizzards and who does not live anywhere near the Atlantic Ocean.

That cold front never made it to the coast...its washing out as we speak with the high building in behind it....Now the next one it going to be the kicker but I am already hearing it might not make it through as well......We shall see...

One thing I have learned on 2K, is you dont make a blanket statement like that. Especially when this thing is a long way away....Now if it was recurving now then maybe......


As far as you being from Canada. I am not sure why that matters......

Well I am a weather enthusiast and someone asked so I am providing information. I don't know where you got Canada from...I never mentioned Canada...how about try upper midwest? Regardless, I have nothing to lose or gain from tropical systems except the chance to track them and learn more about them.
Alright, let's please get back on topic...does anyone else see the LLC forming where I pointed out?

[windstorm99]

Luis thankfully if the 18z GFDL pans out you wont have to much to worry.

[destruction92]

Luis thankfully if the 18z GFDL pans out you wont have to much to worry.

I think the GFDL is picking up on some future wind shear, right?
But the ECMWF is forecasting a hurricane...wasn't this a better intensity model with Felix and Dean?

I think GFDL was one of the last models to develop Dean.

[flwxwatcher]

Both the 18z GFDL and HWRF develop then weaken 91L in the longer range. The GFS has been showing Shear increasing in the 4+ day range in 91L'S path. .

[SWFLA_CANE]

Both the 18z GFDL and HWRF develop then weaken 91L in the longer range. The GFS has been showing Shear increasing in the 4+ day range in 91L'S path. .

Both are much weaker then the 12z. At 12z HWRF had a cat 3 and gfdl had a cat 1.

[Normandy]

LOL at the storm2kgb comment (sorry mods it was funny)...might get blasted for that one tho...

Anyways, my thinking on this....
I feel it could be a northern leeward island threat....probably wont be the same type of track as Dean and Felix. Itll be interesting to see when it does develop because that could affect the potential track....Steering currents right now would suggest a W-WNW track for the next 3 days.

Also in regards to future shear...just remember that shear forecasts really arent the most reliable one.

[Pearl River]

Gusty Wind wrote

Pearl River wrote:
Does Hurricane Georges ring a bell????? September 15-October 1, 1998 , made it to the Gulf Coast.


Are you sure??? I tkink you're wrong or my head deceiving me...passes on antigua 22 september...quite impossible 15th september in the GULF COAST! Pass in the gulf coast 28 /29! no matter

Actually I was mentioning the entire lifespan of Georges, not just in the G.O.M. My statement was basically to say that a storm can make it into the G.O.M even late into September from out in the Atlantic.

[ROCK]

the EURO has done well this year once the invest becomes a TD. I use it for tracking purposes only........


BTW- I know your not from Canada. I was INFERING that because you said Northern.......

[canegrl04]

Both the 18z GFDL and HWRF develop then weaken 91L in the longer range. The GFS has been showing Shear increasing in the 4+ day range in 91L'S path. .

I'm getting giggles out of GFS of late.They didn't develope Felix untill it was actually a TS nearing hurricane strength.Some of these models stink at forecasting development

[ROCK]

LOL at the storm2kgb comment (sorry mods it was funny)...might get blasted for that one tho...

Anyways, my thinking on this....
I feel it could be a northern leeward island threat....probably wont be the same type of track as Dean and Felix. Itll be interesting to see when it does develop because that could affect the potential track....Steering currents right now would suggest a W-WNW track for the next 3 days.

Also in regards to future shear...just remember that shear forecasts really arent the most reliable one.

I agree Normandy....

21Z steering flows.....
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 120051
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0051 UTC WED SEP 12 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912007) 20070912 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070912 0000 070912 1200 070913 0000 070913 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.1N 41.9W 12.8N 43.2W 13.4N 44.2W 13.8N 45.4W
BAMD 12.1N 41.9W 12.6N 43.4W 13.0N 44.8W 13.3N 45.9W
BAMM 12.1N 41.9W 12.7N 43.2W 13.3N 44.2W 13.7N 45.2W
LBAR 12.1N 41.9W 12.6N 43.4W 13.4N 45.2W 14.1N 47.1W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 34KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070914 0000 070915 0000 070916 0000 070917 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.4N 46.1W 15.8N 47.9W 17.2N 50.6W 18.4N 53.5W
BAMD 13.6N 46.8W 14.7N 48.4W 16.4N 50.0W 18.1N 51.2W
BAMM 14.2N 46.0W 15.5N 47.5W 17.0N 49.6W 18.5N 51.8W
LBAR 14.8N 48.7W 16.8N 52.8W 19.0N 56.7W 21.5N 60.2W
SHIP 47KTS 59KTS 60KTS 59KTS
DSHP 47KTS 59KTS 60KTS 59KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.1N LONCUR = 41.9W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 40.9W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 10.5N LONM24 = 40.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
No TD at 11 PM.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

anyway...this should be a depression by classification by tomorrow,
and let's just say that the model tracks are making me
pretty uncomfortable right now...