Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[Extremeweatherguy]

one funny thing is that back on that "what will become a depression first" poll, I chose 90L because I thought that it was actually the least likely and needed a vote. However, it looks like I may have actually been accidentally right. I guess we will find out later today..

[O Town]

What the heck is the GFDL doing or seeing I should say. If that panned out it would have plenty of time to become a hurricane.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would wait on the upgrade because I don't like being unfair to 91L. 91L has worked very hard. That is my feelings.

Yes this looking much better and even could be developing a broad LLC. We will see what happen through out today.

[HouTXmetro]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

Long Range radar looking good

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[HURAKAN]

445
WHXX01 KWBC 121208
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1208 UTC WED SEP 12 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902007) 20070912 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070912 1200 070913 0000 070913 1200 070914 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.8N 95.2W 28.7N 95.7W 29.9N 96.0W 31.1N 95.5W
BAMD 27.8N 95.2W 28.6N 95.6W 30.0N 95.3W 31.9N 94.0W
BAMM 27.8N 95.2W 28.6N 95.7W 29.9N 95.7W 31.3N 94.8W
LBAR 27.8N 95.2W 28.5N 95.4W 29.7N 95.4W 31.4N 94.9W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 36KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070914 1200 070915 1200 070916 1200 070917 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 31.6N 95.4W 31.1N 97.7W 32.9N 99.9W 35.6N 100.6W
BAMD 33.6N 91.4W 37.4N 75.5W 44.8N 57.6W 51.2N 39.6W
BAMM 32.2N 93.7W 31.0N 92.9W 30.3N 95.4W 31.7N 97.9W
LBAR 33.7N 93.4W 39.0N 83.4W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 45KTS 38KTS 34KTS 35KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.8N LONCUR = 95.2W DIRCUR = 345DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 26.8N LONM12 = 94.9W DIRM12 = 349DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 26.0N LONM24 = 94.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Sanibel]

Looks stationary and trying to wind-up off the Texas coast. Will it become Humberto before 91L?

[Stratosphere747]

Still not a very defined center which is making it hard to tell the movement. Taking its sweet time moving anywhere though.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

WONT41 KNHC 121239
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
845 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

SATELLITE AND NWS RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...AND
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT IT BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE...HEAVY
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NWS
FORECAST OFFICE.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Sanibel]

A late-season stalling rain-maker.

[Stratosphere747]

Looks like they will wait for recon to make any upgrade. Also of note is the movement towards the NNW.

Almost a mute point, as this is going to be rainmaker for sure.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Looks like JB is about to get his man.

[jasons2k]

1) I think we will get at least a TD out of this
2) It looks like an incredible flooding event setting up for SE Texas

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking very good. Not as good as 91L but good none the less. JB is a very smart man for forecasting this. WOW...

[Stratosphere747]

A bit surprised that they are going to fly. Close enough to shore that tracking and such should be no problem. Doubt that it is going to linger long enough to show that much strengthening.

[vbhoutex]

A bit surprised that they are going to fly. Close enough to shore that tracking and such should be no problem. Doubt that it is going to linger long enough to show that much strengthening.

They are flying it for all the other information besides the tracking. They can't get all the atmospheric information that they need from the radars and satellite. If they can get all of that information without flying it please enlighten me(and this is not a smart arse remark either). I would guess it is far enough out that they can't do any soundings like they do here on good ole terra firma.

[jasons2k]

Based on radar alone (in a hurry here) it looks like the center has actually drifted south a tad over the last couple of hours. This just might spend another 24+ hours over water. Hopefully not, but for now it's not going anywhere fast.

[Stormcenter]

WONT41 KNHC 121239
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
845 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2007

SATELLITE AND NWS RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...AND
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT IT BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE...HEAVY
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NWS
FORECAST OFFICE.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Now who said this would amount to nothing more then a "trough of low pressure"?

[PhillyWX]

A late-season stalling rain-maker.

Just what Texas needed....(sarcasm mode on)

[PhillyWX]

Looks like JB is about to get his man.

After being only 35 mb off on Gabrielle he had to hit one right eventually.